---
title: "Bitcoin Traders See 51% Chance of $75,000 as Fed Rate Hike Pressures Crypto"
publisher: "Share Talk"
author: "sharetalk"
published: "2026-09-19T09:38:30+00:00"
modified: "2026-09-19T09:38:30+00:00"
date: 2026-09-19
canonical: "https://www.share-talk.com/bitcoin-traders-see-51-chance-of-75000-as-fed-rate-hike-pressures-crypto/"
category: "Blogs"
categories: ["Blogs", "Fintech", "Technology", "Technology, Media & Telecoms"]
tags: ["Bitcoin traders", "BTC", "cryptocurrency"]
image: "https://i0.wp.com/www.share-talk.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/5e3abc18-e1d3-4473-9d81-8629837b0628.png?fit=1727%2C911&quality=80&ssl=1"
format: "news"
language: "en-GB"
---

# Bitcoin Traders See 51% Chance of $75,000 as Fed Rate Hike Pressures Crypto

**Published:** September 19, 2026
**Author:** sharetalk
**Categories:** Blogs, Fintech, Technology, Technology, Media & Telecoms
**Tags:** Bitcoin traders, BTC, cryptocurrency
**Featured image:** ![](https://i0.wp.com/www.share-talk.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/5e3abc18-e1d3-4473-9d81-8629837b0628.png?fit=1727%2C911&quality=80&ssl=1)

---

**Bitcoin has a 51% chance of falling to $75,000 at some point before 30 September 2026**, according to bettors on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket, as higher US interest rates weigh on risk assets.

The same market assigns Bitcoin a **70% chance of reaching $80,000 at some point before the end of September 2026**, suggesting traders expect considerable short-term volatility rather than a clear directional trend.

Bitcoin was trading just below **$77,000 on Friday, 18 September**, more than a third below its record high of around **$126,000 reached in October 2025**. The cryptocurrency briefly fell to about $75,240 following this week’s Federal Reserve decision.

The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by **25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%** and indicated that **one further rate increase could take place before the end of 2026**, while signalling no rate cuts until 2027.

Higher interest rates can put pressure on Bitcoin and other speculative assets by increasing returns available from lower-risk investments and supporting the US dollar.

Despite the sell-off, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reportedly attracted around **$987 million of net inflows during early September 2026**, suggesting institutional demand has not disappeared.

For the remainder of **September 2026**, Polymarket bettors assign an **18% chance of Bitcoin reaching $85,000 before 30 September** and an **11% chance of falling to $70,000 before the same deadline**.

For investors, the prediction-market pricing therefore applies only to the **remaining days of September**, rather than representing longer-term Bitcoin forecasts. With Bitcoin already trading close to $75,000, monetary policy and broader risk sentiment remain the principal near-term drivers.

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**Original URL:** https://www.share-talk.com/bitcoin-traders-see-51-chance-of-75000-as-fed-rate-hike-pressures-crypto/
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