Polymarket traders now see a better-than-even chance that Bitcoin will reach $80,000 before the end of August, after a powerful rally forced expectations to reprice sharply.
The prediction market puts the probability of Bitcoin touching $80,000 at 59%, up 57 percentage points as the cryptocurrency surged during the week.
Bitcoin was trading around $77,000 on Friday, more than 21% higher since the start of August and at its strongest level since early June.
Expectations for higher levels have also increased. Polymarket gives Bitcoin a 35% chance of reaching $82,500 and an 18% probability of touching $85,000. A move to $100,000 remains considered unlikely, with odds of just 2%.
The rally accelerated after the US Treasury announced plans to at least double buybacks of longer-dated government bonds, helping ease pressure in bond markets and improving sentiment towards risk assets.
Institutional demand has also strengthened. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $606 million of inflows on Thursday, their strongest daily intake since May.
The broader cryptocurrency market has participated in the rally, with Ether and Solana also advancing sharply.
Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole gathering, where signals on the interest-rate outlook could influence the next move across risk assets. Investors are also watching progress on the CLARITY Act, with a US Senate vote expected in September.
