{"id":117042,"title":"Barclays claims French efforts to reduce deficit are ‘unattainable’","publisher":"Share Talk","author":"sharetalk","published":"2024-10-04T16:39:01+00:00","modified":"2024-10-04T16:39:01+00:00","canonical_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/barclays-claims-french-efforts-to-reduce-deficit-are-unattainable/","markdown_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/barclays-claims-french-efforts-to-reduce-deficit-are-unattainable.md","json_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/barclays-claims-french-efforts-to-reduce-deficit-are-unattainable.json","category":"B2B","categories":["B2B","Blogs","Business & Support Services","Technology","Technology, Media & Telecoms"],"tags":["Barclays","far-right party","French","GDP","Marine Le Pen","Michel Barnier","National Rally","Prime Minister"],"featured_image":"https://i0.wp.com/www.share-talk.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Barclays-24_10_23.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&quality=89&ssl=1","format":"news","language":"en-GB","content":"Economists at Barclays have criticised French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s economic plans, calling the goals “unreachable.”\n\nBarclays’ economists warned clients that Barnier’s pledge to reduce the budget deficit, currently around 6% of GDP, to 5% would likely be derailed by his need to maintain support from coalition partners. The bank argued that France has a history of missing its budgetary targets and that the proposed fiscal cuts would be politically untenable.\n\nThe economists noted: “Achieving this would require significant fiscal adjustments, which we doubt the government can implement. The necessary measures would conflict with the political agendas of the coalition’s supporting parties. Moreover, such a large fiscal consolidation would likely hamper an already weak economic outlook.”\n\nBarclays forecasts that France’s deficit will reach 5.8% of GDP by 2025, rather than Barnier’s target. Additionally, they predict public debt will continue to rise, hitting 115.2% of GDP by 2025, up from 112% this year.\n\nThe bank also suggested that Barnier’s government may need to invoke Article 49-3 of the Constitution to pass the budget, bypassing a vote in the National Assembly. This could trigger no-confidence motions from opposition parties, potentially toppling the government and rejecting the budget.\n\nBarclays added that the adoption of the 2025 budget may hinge on the far-right party, National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, abstaining from such no-confidence votes.\n\nLe Pen recently reiterated that her party would not automatically support no-confidence motions to give the government a chance to enact necessary recovery measures. However, she also set clear limits, particularly opposing any tax increases on the working and middle classes."}