Middle East crude oil exports returned to and briefly exceeded pre-war levels during September, despite continued attacks on commercial vessels and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Provisional Kpler data showed the region’s seven-day moving average for crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day on 30 September.
That compares with an average of approximately 18 million barrels per day during the 12 months before the war involving the US, Israel and Iran began in February.
Exports were at or above pre-war levels on 14 days during September, including cargoes moving through Hormuz, the Red Sea and alternative Gulf export routes.
Vortexa data also pointed to a recovery, with the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports reaching 18.6 million barrels per day, above the 10-year seasonal average and broadly back at pre-conflict levels.
The rebound has been driven largely by Saudi Arabia increasing exports through both the Gulf and Red Sea, while Iraqi operators have also increased shipments through Hormuz after securing permission for Iraqi tankers to transit the strait.
The improvement potentially reduces the scale of the global crude shortage and provides additional supply for major Asian refiners.
However, the recovery does not mean that Middle East oil flows have returned to normal.
Ships operating through Hormuz continue to face what shipping intelligence group Marisks described as a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat”, with several tankers struck by unknown projectiles in recent days.
The increase in exports is also creating additional logistical pressure.
More very large crude carriers are being used to shuttle oil through Hormuz before cargoes are transferred or redirected, while ship-to-ship transfer capacity in the Gulf of Oman is becoming constrained.
Those changes have contributed to exceptionally high freight and insurance costs.
Reuters analysis noted that tanker rates on some Middle East-to-Asia routes have risen dramatically, meaning the cost of transporting crude has become a much larger component of delivered oil prices even as physical export volumes recover.
That helps explain why Brent crude has remained above $100 a barrel despite the improvement in headline supply volumes.
For investors, the distinction is increasingly important: the global oil market may be moving away from a pure physical supply shortage towards a logistics, shipping and refining-capacity problem.
Higher exports should reduce some upward pressure on crude prices, but continued tanker attacks, elevated insurance costs and constrained refining capacity mean the benefit may not flow through fully to consumers.
The next key test is whether Middle East producers can sustain export volumes around current levels without a further escalation in attacks or another disruption to the region’s export infrastructure.
