Copper mine supply heads for its first annual fall since 2017
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Core Lithium (CXO AU) – Final lithium fines stockpile sold to Glencore
Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) SUSPENDED – US$100m working capital raise to restart operations
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – BUY, Target 89p – Major shareholder changes
Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) – Renewal of exploration licenses in Botswana
Copper ($14,338/t) – Mine supply heads for its first annual fall since 2017
- Copper has risen for ten weeks in a row on the LME.
- The US imported a record 225,094t of refined copper in July, up 78% mom.
- Comex stocks have risen for 53 straight days to an all-time high of 693,630t.
- Global mine output fell 1.1% in the first half, with Codelco and Freeport both down double digits (ICSG).
- Miners covering two-thirds of world supply saw output fall 3.5% in the first half, and 4.1% in 2Q (Jefferies).
- Chile posted its weakest second quarter in at least 19 years and now expects a 2.6% decline for the year.
US copper refined copper and copper alloys imports jumped to 225,094t in July
- The imports were 78% higher than in June and 8% higher yoy.
Gold ($4,468/oz) – Gold rises as Waller opens the door to holding rates
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding rates if inflation keeps easing.
- His decision rests on next week’s inflation data, and he would consider a rise if it comes in higher than expected.
- Traders now put the odds of a rise at the September meeting at ~50%, from ~70% earlier in the week.
- The dollar fell to its lowest since May, after dropping 0.6% Thursday.
- Payrolls land today, with US inflation data next week.
- Higher diesel prices may fuel inflation beyond expectations
Lithium – China’s largest lithium mine goes back into care and maintenance
- CATL’s Jianxiawo mine, China’s largest by capacity, has stopped again after regulators revoked its environmental approval.
- A restart depends on an environmental review that could run into 4Q or 2027.
- Benchmark Mineral Intelligence has cut its 2026 forecast for the mine to 32,000t LCE, from 62,500t.
- The mine last stopped in August 2025 when its licence expired, and only restarted in June.
- Zimbabwe’s lithium concentrate sales hit $1.25bn in the eight months to August, up 5x yoy.
- Volumes rose 23% to 816,774t, so almost all of that came from price
Cobalt – Prices fall as DRC exports pick up
- The DRC, the world’s largest cobalt producer, restricted exports in early 2025 to clear excess stocks, starting with a outright export ban and then with quotas.
- Cobalt hydroxide more than quadrupled by April as shipments dried up.
- Prices have since fallen almost 30% as exports resumed under the quota system.
- Miners exported ~41,500t from December to end-June, only two-thirds of their quota
- CMOC, which runs the world’s two largest cobalt mines, produced more than 65,000t in the first half but exported less than a fifth of their total cobalt production.
Rare Earths – Chinese suppliers are hesitant to ship rare earth products into the US for fear of repercussions from Beijing.
- A handful of suppliers refused shipments since early August when China imposed sanctions on the Responsible Business Alliance (RBA), a US supply chain monitor, Reuters writes.
Ramp-up in Defense drone production tightening market
- Ukraine and Russia are reported to be ramping up drone production to extraordinary levels in their ongoing conflict
- Ukraine is targeting 6-7m drones this year from 4m in 2025 with Russia expected to produce 7.3m drones, eg very similar production.
- Consumer drone uses 30-60g of NdPr in NdFeB magnets.
- Commercial drones use 150-300g
- Industrial and defense drones use 300-600g
- The data implies demand for ~6,300t of NdPr for industrial and defense drones this year representing around 10% of totap annual production with China controlling ~85% of refined NdPr output.
- The expansion in demand has led to a proliferation of drone manufacturers globally with around 1,500 registered companies.
- Estimates reckon production of 1.4m baseline civil drones split between consumer and commercial units using another .
| Dow Jones Industrials | +1.18% | at | 53,686 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.26% | at | 65,021 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +1.72% | at | 25,647 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.30% | at | 3,930 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -0.8 | at | 4.76 |
Currencies
US$1.1628/eur vs 1.1607/eur previous. Yen 156.33/$ vs 156.72/$. SAr 15.992/$ vs 16.053/$. $1.354/gbp vs $1.349/gbp. 0.720/aud vs 0.717/aud. CNY 6.711/$ vs 6.719/$.
Dollar Index 99.04 vs 99.18 previous.
Economics
China – Ongoing weak domestic demand as China pays down regional debt
- China continues to suffer from weak domestic demand but is making up for it with strong export growth.
- The ongoing drive for export-led activity continues to support manufacturing and jobs at the expense of domestic services.
- President Xi’s reforms on how property developer’s up-front charges is much needed, as is the bank financing to bridge the gap to enable developers to finish their developments.
- From our simple perspective, it looks like China is reverting to how new-build property is bought in the West, albeit with a Chinese way of doing things.
- Question is, how long will it take for the property market to adjust to the new reforms and grow again. Knowing China, it might be faster than you might think.
- Negative equity remains a significant issue but at least new home buyers can get started and there is nothing like buying building and buying new homes to stimulate consumption.
- Manufacturers are under pressure to automate to increase production and lower costs. But increasing automation is also causing job uncertainty.
- Youth unemployment and the ‘Lay Flat’ generation are an increasing issue in China as it is also in many parts of the West.
- Education and healthcare costs are forcing families to save, holding back domestic consumption.
- The fifth Plenary session to be held in October may see a new focus on domestic consumption or simply more of the same focus on exports
- Unfortunately, It may take a few more violent demonstrations before the CCP focuses more on helping its people in preference to its new-found international political aspirations.
Diesel prices hit record of $5.85/gallon in US
- Commentators suggest further price increases are possible as seasonal demand picks up.
- Farmers harvesting crops in the Northern Hemisphere, combined with preparations for planting in the Southern Hemisphere.
- Distillate stockpiles including diesel and heating oil averaged the lowest August since 1982.
- Diesel prices are up 55% since the start of the US/Iran war in late February.
- While US drivers mostly fill their cars with gasoline, Diesel is used in Trucks and other delivery vehicles.
- Higher diesel costs will translate into higher delivery charges and general inflation.
- The UK imports around 50-70% its 20-25mtpa of diesel from overseas refineries with around 18% historically coming from Russia before the Ukraine war.
- Diesel stocks are exceptionally tight in Europe due to refining constraints, low stocks, damage to Russian refineries and disruption to crude oil and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
US – Labour numbers are due later today with the economy expected to have added 55k jobs in August (-22k July).
- Weaker than expected print likely to see odds of a rate hike pull back helping the US$ lower and seeing gold higher.
The Baltic Dry Index tracking freight rates is hitting its highest levels since December 2023.
- A rise in costs is driven by a drop in available vessel capacity and strong demand in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
- Maritime operations in the Pacific have been disrupted by a series of typhoons this summer delaying vessels and reducing effective tonnage available for transport.
- Meanwhile, Australian exporters are ramping up post maintenance shipments while increasing volumes of iron ore are due to come from Guinean Simandou mine.
UK – New car sales see strongest August since 2018 according to preliminary data
- UK new car registrations rose about 13% to over 90,000 units in August, the highest August total in eight years, according to preliminary industry data released Friday, with final figures due from the SMMT.
- Battery electric vehicles are expected to account for around 30% of the August market, per early SMMT data.
- Separate figures from New AutoMotive, released Thursday, showed a larger 17.5% jump in overall August registrations.
Germany – Volkswagen shares jump up to 9.7% after board approves 100,000-cut restructuring plan
- Volkswagen shares rose as much as 9.7% in early Frankfurt trading on Friday after the supervisory board unanimously approved CEO Oliver Blume’s “Future Plan 2030,” dubbed by the company the “most strategically profound transformation program in the Volkswagen Group’s history.”
- The plan doubles planned job cuts to 100,000 from the 50,000 already agreed over the past two years, and aims to cut the number of model variants offered by about 75% by 2035
- The cuts leave the future of four German plants undecided.
- The board had rejected an earlier version of the plan in July, triggering two months of negotiations between Blume’s management, union representatives, and the company’s state shareholder Lower Saxony.
- Union Investment’s Moritz Kronenberger called the agreement “a positive sign for Volkswagen and the capital market,” even accounting for the severity of the cuts
- The restructuring comes as Volkswagen contends with US import tariffs, sluggish European demand, and mounting pressure from Chinese competitors, all of which have squeezed profitability.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,468/oz vs US$4,425/oz previous
Gold ETFs 99.5moz vs 99.2moz previous
Platinum US$1,815/oz vs US$1,775/oz previous
Palladium US$1,408/oz vs US$1,365/oz previous
Silver US$66.7/oz vs US$65.8/oz previous
Silver ETFs 799.9moz vs 801.2moz previous
Rhodium US$9,425/oz vs US$9,350/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,338/t vs US$14,223/t previous
Aluminium US$3,308/t vs US$3,283/t previous
Nickel US$16,765/t vs US$16,915/t previous
Zinc US$3,931/t vs US$3,868/t previous
Lead US$1,911/t vs US$1,897/t previous
Tin US$54,895/t vs US$54,290/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$95.9/bbl vs US$94.7/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices edged lower with no end in sight to the disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, as the US diesel crack spread and retail diesel price both hit all-time highs this week due to global refinery outages.
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged lower as the EIA reported a 30bcf w/w storage build to 3,214bcf, with US inventories 2% lower y/y and 5% above the five-year average, as LNG export capacity rose 6bcf to 123bcf (c.17.6bcf/d).
Natural Gas €72.3/MWh vs €73.3/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $89.5/lb vs $89.5/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$99.4/t vs US$99.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$468.1/t vs US$466.8/t
HCC FOB Australia US$273.5/t vs US$271.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$148.5/t vs US$148.8/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$48,500/t vs US$50,665/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$108,769/t vs US$108,505/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$22,722/t vs US$22,996/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,245/t vs US$2,260/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,070/t vs US$1,070/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,825/mtu vs US$1,825/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$2,995/mtu vs US$2,995/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$233/lb vs US$233/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vs US$390/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.8/kg vs US$25.1/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$190/t vs US$190/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,806/t vs US$2,806/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,170/t vs US$1,168/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$385.0/t vs US$385.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,255.0/kg vs US$4,225.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$440.0/kg vs US$440.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$33.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
BYD’s overseas push offsets domestic decline with sales up 18% in August
- BYD sold 440,293 NEVs in August, up 18% yoy, with international sales rising 134% yoy and accounting for 43% of total sales, more than offsetting a 14% yoy decline in China, according to CnEVPost.
- Passenger BEV sales rose 28.4% to a record 256,230 units, boosted by flash-charging Blade 2.0 batteries, while passenger PHEV sales rose just over 3% to 177,154 units.
- Among BYD’s domestic rivals, Stellantis-backed Leapmotor topped 100,000 deliveries for a second straight month in August, up 81% yoy to 103,129 units, while Nio deliveries rose 14% to 35,836, Li Auto rose 32% to 37,679, and Xpeng rose 4% to 39,107, though Xpeng’s sales remain down 10% ytd.
- Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng shares are all down between 40% and 50% this year, according to MarketSurge.
- Tesla’s August European registrations were mixed, surging 279% in France and 104% in Denmark, but falling 79% in Norway and 41% in Sweden, according to national trade groups; Tesla does not release China sales figures directly.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -2.4% | -7.5% | Freeport-McMoRan | -1.9% | -7.5% |
| Rio Tinto | -0.7% | -1.2% | Vale | -2.7% | 0.0% |
| Glencore | -1.0% | 0.7% | Newmont Mining | 4.2% | -1.4% |
| Anglo American | -1.2% | -2.8% | Fortescue | 1.6% | -4.7% |
| Antofagasta | -1.0% | -3.5% | Teck Resources | 2.3% | -2.9% |
Core Lithium (CXO AU) A$0.34, Mkt Cap A$1.08bn – Final lithium fines stockpile sold to Glencore
- Core Lithium has agreed to sell the last ~25,000t of lithium fines from Finniss to Glencore at ~$285/t CIF.
- It is the third such sale this year, after two in April and June.
- That clears all existing stockpiles and takes 2026 lithium sales to ~A$38.5m.
- Proceeds are due in the December quarter
Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) SUSPENDED – US$100m working capital raise to restart operations
- The Company raises US$100m to restart iron ore operations in Ukraine.
- The Company is issuing 449m new shares at 16.5p, ~42% discount to the last close.
- ~224m ($50m) is subscribed for by a new investor, by Andriy Verevskyi (~21% post raise)
- ~180m ($40m) is taken up by the existing major shareholder, Fevamotinico (~45%).
- New shares represent ~73% of existing issued shares.
- Trading in shares is expected to be resumed on 7 September.
Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 35p, Mkt Cap £282m – Major shareholder changes
Initiation Note – BUY – 89p CLICK HERE
- Luis Enrique Catril sold his interest (91m shares or ~11%) to Alpayana on 21 August.
- Alpayana is described as a private mining group with four decades of operation in Peru and Mexico.
- Mr Catril has been issued 91m shares in the course of an acquisition of the Andacollo Gold Project (Chile) in June.
*SP Angel act as Broker to Galantas Gold
Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) 22.5p, Mkt Cap £7.6m – Renewal of exploration licenses in Botswana
- Serval report the successful renewal of all its exploration licences in Botswana.
- The latest renewal includes license PL 2474/2023 which is part of the Sweet Thorn Pan prospect, Serval’s top exploration priority in the Kalahari Copper Belt.
- The following licenses have been renewed till the next renewal in 30 September 2028 with the Department of Mines in Botswana
- PL 061/2021
- PL 062/2021
- PL 2473/2023
- PL 2474/2023 (part of the Sweet Thorn Pan prospect)
- PL 2472/2023 has been relinquished as a low priority target
- The license holding in the Kalahari Copper Belt now covers ~990.93 sqkm (previously 1,283 km 2 ).
- Serval is a major landholder across the Kaoko Basin in Namibia and the Kalahari Copper Belt in Botswana.
- Serval also has exposure to the Duékoué project, which is the subject of a jv and earn-in agreement with La Minière de L’Eléphant SARL in the Ivory Coast.
- Management are working on geological mapping, geophysics and soil sampling to better understand and target their next phase of exploration.
- The work should improve the definition of mineralised corridors and help target a first drill programme in Namibia by the year-end.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Serval Resources
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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