Higher sulphur costs push Vale Indonesia to test pyrite
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – Greenland and the geopolitics of oil
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – BUY, 27p – Infill drilling completed at Kallak, assays to follow
Evion Group (EVG AU) – Evion accepted into the US Department of Defense Cornerstone Consortium
G Mining (GMIN CN) C$49, Mkt Cap C$14.5bn – 1H26 earnings double on higher gold prices with Oko development on schedule
Nickel ($16,710/t) – Higher sulphur costs push Vale Indonesia to test pyrite
- Vale Indonesia is testing pyrite to replace the imported sulphur its acid leach plants use.
- Pyrite holds around 53% sulphur, with early blend tests showing good results.
- Average sulphur import prices rose from $104/t in 1Q24 to $817/t in 2Q26.
- Prices topped $1,100/t in June, with around 80% of supply from the Middle East.
- APNI, the Nickel miners’ association says this has raised plant running costs by more than 30%.
- Vale separately finished building its Pomalaa plant, designed for 120,000t of nickel a year.
Indonesia – Prabowo widens the state export firm’s role to all strategic commodities
- Prabowo says the state export firm DSI will monitor commodity shipments, not control exports.
- DSI has covered 6,500 transactions and $14bn of exports in two months.
- Today, DSI is only covering palm oil, coal and ferroalloy, to stop under-invoicing.
- Exporters have reported prices below what they actually sold for, worth a possible $5bn.
- The firm will monitor 50 ports next, then all strategic commodity exports.
- We expect the firm would control tin and other battery grade nickel (MHP) in the future.
Rare Earths – South Korean defence firms ship Chinese minerals through Russia and Arab states to bypass export restrictions, Kore JoongAng Daily reports.
- “Korean defense firms are routing Chinese rare earths through third-party trade via Russia or Arab states that maintain relatively cordial ties with Beijing,” said an industry source.
- China introduced export restrictions on rare earth oxides last year limiting supply to non military applications only.
- All heavy REEs that are key to a number of military applications are now subject to Chinese export controls.
- The news highlights the challenges and urgency ex China permanent magnets producers face in sourcing their feedstock.
Gold ($4,332/oz) – Gold falls a second day after Thursday’s 10-week high
- Gold fell to $4,332/oz from $4,378/oz on profit taking following it’s recent strong run
- The metal hit a 10-week high on Thursday after a soft July US inflation print.
- Traders now put the chance of a September rate hike at around 32%.
Venezuela asks for its gold back from the Bank of England (FT)
- Venezuela’s government and opposition want $4bn of gold returned from London.
- The Bank of England holds around 31t, blocked since the UK stopped recognising the government in 2018.
- The money would fund rebuilding after earthquakes that killed more than 6,000 people.
- The Bank declined to comment and wants legal clarity on who controls the bullion.
- We suspect the BoE will seek assurances the gold will be used to help the people and not to enrich the political elite as the gold is owned by the nation and not its political leadership.
Copper ($14,100/t) – Chile works to lift output back toward 6mt a year
- Chile has set up a public-private group to speed permits and fund junior miners.
- National output is static at around 5-5.5mtpa, held back by falling grades, weaker exploration and slow permitting.
- On permitting, projects need 147 permits on average which can take over a decade to clear.
- Economy and Mining Minister Daniel Mas wants to see 6mtpa, helped by simpler permitting and lower taxes.
- In Indonesia, PT Smelting’s Gresik plant (66% freeport share) has been shut since 8 August following damage to a furnace.
- Freeport Indonesia expects the repair to be done in 3Q. The plant produces around 342,000t of cathode a year.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.13% | at | 53,840 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.59% | at | 68,714 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.95% | at | 25,154 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.01% | at | 3,927 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.8 | at | 4.66 |
Currencies
US$1.1545/eur vs 1.1519/eur previous. Yen 159.28/$ vs 159.38/$. SAr 16.198/$ vs 16.171/$. $1.351/gbp vs $1.348/gbp. 0.707/aud vs 0.705/aud.
CNY 6.744/$ vs 6.747/$. Dollar Index 99.81 vs 100.03 previous.
Economics
US – Odds of a hike before year end continued to pull back with producers’ inflation coming in below expectations.
- Annual rates in both headline and core PPIs seen coming down.
- The data follows weaker than expected July CPI and employment numbers released earlier.
- Odds of a September hike now stand at just over 30%, down from nearly 60% pre-NFP last week.
- PPI (%mom, Jul / Jun / Est): 0.0 / -0.1 / 0.2
- PPI ex Food and Energy (%mom, Jul / Jun / Est): 0.4 / 0.1 / 0.3
- PPI (%yoy, Jul / Jun / Est): 4.7 / 5.5 / 4.9
- PPI ex Food and Energy (%yoy, Jul / Jun / Est): 4.2 / 4.7 / 4.1)
The US placed $25bn of 30y bonds at over 5.2% marking the highest yield since 2001.
- Rising interest rates reflect higher inflation rate outlook and growing federal government borrowing.
- Interest on the public debt climbed 15%yoy to ~$1.2tn for the fiscal year to date.
- The trend with sovereign government cutting exposure to the US$ in favour of other currencies and gold has not helped either.
US/Iran – The Treasury is expected to announce unprecedented economic measures against Tehran, according to Scott Bessent.
- “Watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country,” Bessent said yesterday.
- The administration considering different options to put pressure on Iran to agree to a ceasefire deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Brent continues to trade close to the $90/bbl level.
OpenAI is on track for $40 billion-plus in annualized revenue
- Open AI is on for stella growth having nearly doubled sales since the end of last year.
- OpenAI runs ChatGPT and is looking to IPO (Bloomberg)
- Anthropic is also reported to have filed documents for a public listing
China – Guangdong province foreign trade rises 20.5% ytd to CNY6.5tn
- Guangdong province makes up 21.6% of China’s total foreign trade and 25% of China’s overall trade growth.
-
- Exports rose 10.8% CNY3.8tn
- Imports leapt 37.4% to CNY2.69tn
- Guangdong’s trade surplus fell 24.5% to CNY1.11tn mainly due to trade with ASEAN nations
- Bilateral trade with ASEAN rose 14% to CNY1.02tn
- Trade with:
-
- Hong Kong jumped 47% to CNY990.1bn
- EU, 5% to CNY677bn
- US 4% to CNY583bn
- Taiwan 8.7% to CNY533.05bn
- South Korea 44.3%
- Africa 19.8%
- India 16.5%
- Australia 33.2%
- Exports of:
-
- Mechanical and electrical products rose 15% to CNY2.68tn accounting for 70.5% of total exports
- Integrated circuit exports leapt 58% CNY320.09bn
- Electrical equipment jumped 24.9% CNY306bn
- Lithium batteries jumped 40.3% to CNY107.6bn
- EVs rose 29.8% to 30.6bn
- Drones 23.7% to CNY12.7bn
- 3D printers 120% to CNY9.83bn
- Guangdong saw a rise of 35% to 183,000 of companies working on imports and exports including 161,000 private companies highlighting strong growth in the entrepreneurial private sector.
- The number of private companies rose 40% with their aggregate trade volume rising 26.7% to CNY4.37tn
- Foreign-invested companies oversaw CNY1.91tn in imports and exports, up 13.5%
- Imports saw a 30% in monthly growth for five consecutive months, driven by strong demand from the AI industry.
-
- Imports of integrated circuits rose 48.6% CNY1.07t making up 39.6% of total imports.
- Imports of computers and components jumped 78% to CNY391bn
- Copper imports rose 36.5% to CNY40b.
China prepares for September launch of new 83 mile, US$10.8bn canal link to Southeast Asia
- China’s latest canal megaproject links inland waterways to the coast and Southeast Asia.
- China recently trialled passage along the new canal and is now moving towards its scheduled official launch in September launch.
- The canal will lower the cost of trade and open up inland China to overseas markets.
- The UK’s longest canal is 137 miles long and runs from London to Birmingham and cost around £1.5m to build between 1793 and 1815.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,332/oz vs US$4,378/oz previous
Gold ETFs 97.4moz vs 97.3moz previous
Platinum US$1,721/oz vs US$1,735/oz previous
Palladium US$1,306/oz vs US$1,348/oz previous
Silver US$64.3/oz vs US$64.7/oz previous
Silver ETFs 797.3moz vs 797.5moz previous
Rhodium US$8,800/oz vs US$8,725/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$14,100/t vs US$14,019/t previous
Aluminium US$3,235/t vs US$3,270/t previous
Nickel US$16,710/t vs US$16,760/t previous
Zinc US$3,740/t vs US$3,705/t previous
Lead US$1,883/t vs US$1,897/t previous
Tin US$55,815/t vs US$55,570/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$88.4/bbl vs US$88.5/bbl previous
- Energy prices remain elevated as another week passes without any clear sign of a resolution between Iran and the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and guarantee the safe transit of oil, product and LNG flows.
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged higher after the EIA reported a 36bcf w/w storage build to 3,153bcf, with US inventories 1% lower y/y and 7% above the five-year average, as LNG export capacity rose 15bcf w/w to 134bcf.
Natural Gas €60.8/MWh vs €59.9/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $87.3/lb vs $87.3/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$96.2/t vs US$95.7/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$463.5/t vs US$463.9/t
HCC FOB Australia US$222.0/t vs US$221.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$133.8/t vs US$134.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$106,020/t vs US$107,167/t
Lithium Carbonate 99% (China) US$20,685/t vs US$20,381/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,185/t vs US$2,185/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,040/t vs US$1,040/t
Tungsten APT (China) 88.5% FOB US$1,795/mtu vs US$1,745/mtu
Tungsten APT (Europe) 88.5% Rotterdam US$3,125/mtu vs US$3,125/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$225/lb vs US$225/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$390/t vs US$390/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$25.7/kg vs US$25.7/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$204/t vs US$205/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,789/t vs US$2,789/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,164/t vs US$1,164/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$392.5/t vs US$392.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$4,195.0/kg vs US$4,195.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$430.0/kg vs US$430.0/kg
Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$33.5/lb vs US$33.5/lb
EV & Battery news:
Wood Mackenzie report highlights trio of economic forces that could push global EVs beyond 2040 base case
- Wood Mackenzie’s base case for EV adoption already projects EVs rising from 4% of the global fleet today to 25% by 2040.
- However, its latest Horizons report finds three economic forces that could accelerate adoption well beyond that:
-
- Oil supply shocks from the wars in Russia and Iran.
- High fuel prices pushing consumers toward EVs.
- Faster battery innovation.
- China has made rapid progress on 5-minute charging, sodium-ion batteries, and LFP technology, with the report suggesting Western governments may need to boost domestic support or license more Chinese technology to stay competitive and reduce exposure to oil-price shocks.
- David Brown, co-author of the report, said the pace of EV innovation outside the US may force Washington to take transport electrification more seriously to remain competitive both at home and overseas.
- Under this accelerated scenario, EV market share would rise from 3% today to 20% by 2040 in the US.
- Abundant domestic oil supply limits the upside in the US, versus a rise from 3% in 2025 to 35% by 2040 in Europe, given its higher dependence on oil imports.
- Mineral supply could support 50% growth in global EV volumes by 2040, but would require another $45bn in metals investment over the next decade, with copper the biggest constraint.
- Wood Mackenzie sees these forces eventually weighing on oil demand, with global consumption potentially falling to 99m barrels per day by 2040, down from over 100m bpd today.
Pony.ai and Uber expand partnership to deploy over 2,000 robotaxis across five European cities
- Chinese autonomous driving firm Pony.ai and Uber announced an expanded partnership on Friday to deploy more than 2,000 robotaxis across Europe, building on their existing commercial service in Zagreb, Croatia, and adding four further unnamed cities.
- No timeline was given for the rollout, with details to be announced in phases, and the expansion plan also includes the Middle East.
- Under the partnership, Pony.ai will supply its Level 4 autonomous driving technology and operational expertise, while Uber provides customer access through its mobility platform, including booking, payment, and customer service, alongside its existing human driver network; local fleet partners may handle day-to-day operations in each market.
- The agreement builds on a broader partnership dating back to May 2025, with Pony.ai citing paid, fully driverless robotaxi operations across China’s four tier-one cities, where it says it has achieved city-wide breakeven unit economics in multiple markets.
Company news:
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -3.3% | -2.6% | Freeport-McMoRan | -3.5% | -2.0% |
| Rio Tinto | -3.1% | -5.7% | Vale | -4.3% | -6.3% |
| Glencore | 0.0% | 0.7% | Newmont Mining | -3.1% | 8.3% |
| Anglo American | -1.4% | -4.0% | Fortescue | -1.3% | -2.1% |
| Antofagasta | -1.5% | -7.1% | Teck Resources | -3.4% | -4.2% |
80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.47p, Mkt cap £26m – Greenland and the geopolitics of oil
(80 Mile holds a 30% free carry on the Jameson Land Basin exploration project with GLND earning into 70% through $60m expenditure)
- 80 Mile plc and Greenland Energy, its jv partner on the Jameson Land Basin exploration licences have landed a geopolitical storm this week.
- 80 Mile which is managing the logistics for the Jameson Land project landed containers containing accommodation from their Dundas project in West Greenland for storage at Nerlerit Inaat airport.
- The airport is owned by the Greenland government and 80 Mile and Greenland Energy had secured approval from Greenland Airports.
- Unfortunately, management didn’t appreciate they would need a separate permit for landing the units.
- To make matters worse Donald Trump tweeted an AI generated picture of himself looking over a Greenland village.
- Environmentalists have long opposed oil and gas drilling on the East of Greenland which is said to have similar underlying geology to the North Sea.
- Without going into some sensitive geopolitical matters the Greenland government have kicked the can down the road in delaying exploration till next year.
- It is now up to management to apply for the correct permit before exploration can resume.
- In the meantime, 80 Mile is busy drilling Disko in the west of Greenland where they hope to identify nickel-copper-cobalt-PGE mineralisation.
- Two rigs now working at Disko on a 9,000m of drilling building on the $12m of exploration previously done by KoBold Metals, the private AI-driven exploration fund.
- 80 Mile plan to spend ~US$7.5m at Disko funded by jv partner USFM Corp.
Conclusion: We refer investors to: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/13/world/europe/greenland-oil-project-us-dr-phil.html
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has formerly visited license in Greenland with management.
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 11p, Mkt Cap £6.8m – Infill drilling completed at Kallak, assays to follow
BUY – 27p
- Beowulf completes infill drilling at Kallak magnetite project in the north of Sweden.
- The aim is to better define a near-surface inferred resources to a Measured and Indicated resource in northern Kallak North.
- Programme:
-
- 1,072m drilled in seven holes, against 920m planned.
- Three drill pads, contractor now off site.
- Drilling highlights:
-
- Ore zone confirmed in all seven holes, with assays pending:
-
-
- KAL26001: extended past its 130m planned depth as the ore ran on
- KAL26004: 86m deeper than its 180m planned depth on consistently high XRF and magnetic readings
- KAL26005: tested the ore at depth to the east and stopped slightly early
- KAL26007: the most northerly hole, planned to 90m
- KAL26008: extended past its 160m planned depth as the ore ran on to the west
-
-
- One hole ended short where the ore appeared to run out.
- The ore runs deeper to the west and centre of northern Kallak North than modelled.
- Method:
-
- Core is logged off site by Beowulf’s technical team.
- Checked at intervals with portable XRF and a magnetic susceptibility metre.
- Both give spot readings only, an indication of ore rather than a measurement.
- Those readings decided in real time whether to keep drilling.
- Next steps:
-
- Samples go to an independent laboratory once the £4.3m financing closes.
- Swedish foreign investment approval due around 11 September.
- Assays feed the resource update, then the PFS.
- Ed Bowie, CEO of Beowulf, commented ‘Field observations and results from portable XRF and magnetic susceptibility analyses indicate that the drilling has returned broad zones of mineralisation.’
- *SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining
Evion Group (EVG AU) AU$0.023, Mkt cap AU$16m – Evion accepted into the US Department of Defense Cornerstone Consortium
- The move brings the Maniry graphite project, Madagascar into the US supply chain initiative and aligns the project with US policy support and Strategic Alignment.
- Madagascar is designated as an eligible nation under AGOA the ‘African Growth and Opportunity Act’, which prioritizes and streamlines the access and processing of critical minerals to reduce reliance on China.
- The US Department of Defense Cornerstone Consortium gives Environ direct visibility and eligibility for defense industrial base solicitations regarding materials like graphite.
- Processed graphite from Evion jvs already ships into the US linking the development of the Maniry project directly to American and Western manufacturing needs.
- Evion’s Maniry Graphite Project holds mining permits from the Mines Ministry of Madagascar.
- DFS: key metrics:
-
- Production Target: Up to 60,000toa graphite concentrate
- Pre-Tax NPV (8% discount): US $263m
- Post-Tax NPV: US $204.8m
- Pre-Tax Internal Rate of Return (IRR): 32.65%
- Mine Life: 21 years
- The move is further good news for other western miners operating in Madagascar suggesting the US will support initiatives to mine in the region.
- The relatively new government of Madagascar has lifted a 16-year freeze on the issuance of new general mining permits though a moratorium on gold mining permits remains in place.
- The updated mining code strengthens oversight by the National Mines Committee which sits inside the Bureau du Cadastre Minier Madagascar
- Companies must retain at least one Madagascar resident in in Madagascar.
G Mining (GMIN CN) C$49, Mkt Cap C$14.5bn – 1H26 earnings double on higher gold prices with Oko development on schedule
- The Company reports 2Q26 operational and financial update at the Tocantinzinho Gold Mine (Brazil) and development assets.
- Production highlights:
-
- 36.8koz produced at US$1,690/oz AISC (2Q25: 42.6koz at US$3,233/oz)
- 37.4koz sold at US$4,197/oz (2Q25: 40.1koz at US$3,233/oz)
- 1H26 production – 68.7koz at US$1,642/oz AISC (1H25: 78.2koz at US$3,014/oz)
- 1H26 financial results:
-
- Revenue US$297m (1H25: US$228m)
- Adjusted EBITDA US$211m (1H25: US$161m)
- PAT US$152m (1H25: US$73m)
- FCF US$141m (1H25: US$86m)
- Net cash 193m (Dec25: -US$7m).
- FY26 guidance – production reiterated but costs seen higher
-
- 160-190koz at US$1,330-1,544/oz AISC, up US$100/oz on previous estimates
- Higher costs account for stronger BRL, labour cost inflation, continued maintenance cape investment and revised gold price assumptions driving royalties higher (US$4,300 vs US$4,000)
- FY27 guidance reiterated at 200-235koz and US$977-1,146/oz AISC.
- Oko West Project development to account for most of non-sustaining capex with allocated budget of US$556-618m (2026) and US$257-290m (2027).
- Oko construction remains on schedule with maiden production 2H27 and commercial production early 2028.
SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026
No.1 for Precious Metals: Q1 2026
No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street
London, W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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