SP Angel – Today’s Market View, Friday 8th May 2026

Copper jumps as Freeport delays Grasberg ramp up again

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) – AGM statement highlights expansion at Centinela and Los Pelambres to raise copper production 30% before 2030

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) – Morrow Batteries ASA has files for bankruptcy in Norway

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) – Production hit by wet weather at Cullinan

URU Metals* (URU LN) – FDEM geophysical survey starts at the Zeb nickel project in the Busheld, South Africa

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM LN) – Continued strong free cash flow generation

Copper ($13,548/t) jumps as Freeport delays Grasberg ramp up again

• Copper prices are up 1.5% this morning, having risen 6.7% over the past month.
• SHFE copper stocks fell -5.6% (10,692t) to 181,333t on the week. LME copper stocks fell 325t to 399,400t on the week
• The move follows a wider rebound in metals amid improving peace talk optimism from the Middle East.
• However, today’s move likely reflects last night’s update from Freeport, delaying the ramp up at Grasberg by an additional year.
• Freeport had reported that Grasberg would return to full production in early 2027 last month, but this has subsequently been pushed back to early 2028.
• With the combination of Kamoa Kakula and Grasberg operating below nameplate following major incidents in 2025, concerns over deficits over the next two years are mounting.
• Grasberg, which is one of the largest copper mines globally, is currently producing at 40-50% of nameplate capacity.
• A return to production for the >300ktpa Cobre Panama mine may offset some concentrate shortages in the global copper market, however a full ramp up is expected to take c.9 months.
• BHP reported earlier this week that increasing generalist capital is flowing into the mining sector as traders look for alternative exposure to the popular AI trade.

Gold ($4,720/oz) holds ground following strong rebound on return of Chinese trading as dollar slides

• Gold prices rallied through the second half of this week, adding $210/oz and sitting just off recent highs of $4,760/oz.
• The metal has been supported by improving relations between the US and Iran, with both parties seemingly willing to negotiate.
• The dollar index has fallen this week, and is down 1.2% over the past month.
• Gold is being supported by the weaker dollar and a pause in the sell-off of US Treasuries.
• Asian and European equities trading lower this morning on risks of re-escalation in the US/Iran war as traders return from Chinese Labour Day holiday.
• Brent climbed back to over $100 claiming back some of this week’s losses.

Around 25 US and South African officials are meeting in Johannesburg this week to discuss minerals co-operation. (FT)

• Early-stage discussions are focused on potential projects that could benefit from US collaboration.
• The goal is to come up with a list of priority projects.
• Those could include the Phalaborwa Project that is being development Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW LN), FT cites people familiar with discussions.
• Potential investment in South African logistical infrastructure was also discussed.
• It is the second meeting of delegates following the previous one held in March in the US.

IG TV Gold report: https://youtu.be/PliTL-z0n54?si=HvvFdldYY7oHK7s7

Currencies

US$1.1744/eur vs 1.1764/eur previous. Yen 156.80/$ vs 156.15/$. SAr 16.453/$ vs 16.306/$. $1.358/gbp vs $1.362/gbp. 0.722/aud vs 0.726/aud

CNY 6.804/$ vs 6.802/$. Dollar Index 98.13 vs 97.87 previous

Economics

US non-farm payrolls are due later today with expectations for a little change in jobless rate and a pick up labour earnings.

• 75k jobs expected to have been added in April (186k March).
• 4.3% jobless rate (unchanged).
• Average hourly earnings up 0.3/3.8 (0.2/3.5).

Iran – Ceasefire collapsing as Iran fires on US warships near the UAE coast

• USS Arleigh Burke struck by a cruise missile according to (unconfirmed Iranian media)
• Damage reported to several U.S. destroyers from the Iranian Navy attack (unconfirmed).
• “Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason transited the international sea passage.
• No U.S. assets were struck.” (CENTCOM)
• Large wave of US airstrikes against multiple locations in Iran, including Bandar Abbas and the Minab Naval Base near Bandar Kargan (Fox news).
• IRGC Navy base in Minab was also attacked.
• US and  other regional forces carried out aerial assaults on civilian areas near Bandar Khamir, Sirik, and Qeshm Island (unconfirmed).
• Israeli involvement in strikes on Iranian territory according to Iranian media
• Explosions reported in the UAE, Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
• Allot of planes flying around the Middle East with no call signs according to unconfirmed source
• US intelligence reportedly identified ballistic missile launcher movements in western Iran.
• Iran launched missiles at two US Navy destroyers as they were leaving the Strait of Hormuz (IDF Radio).
• The strikes were allegedly in response to the US attacking an Iranian tanker earlier today.
• IRGC also fired kamikaze drones at Kurdistan National Army and PAK bases and positions.
• Iran has reactivated air defences over western Tehran
• Air defences reported to be engaging hostile targets and hostile drones over Tehran (Iranian state media).
• Senior American official confirmed US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Port and Bandar Abbas but that this does not represent a restart of the war.
• US attacks on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island carried out in response to Iranian fire on the UAE, including strikes on the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone two days ago (Fox news).
• Additional wave of Iranian drones and anti-ship missiles reportedly launched toward US warships near the UAE coast.
• Saudi Arabia and Kuwait removed airspace restrictions for US operations against Iran according to a US official.
• Saudi Arabia express frustration over Trump’s dismissal of recent Iranian strikes on Fujairah.

Germany – Industrial product drops more than expected in March with the sector hit by higher energy costs and logistics disruptions.

• Industrial Production (%mom, Mar / Feb / Est): -0.7 / -0.5 (revised from -0.3) / 0.4
• Industrial Production (%yoy, Mar / Feb / Est): -2.8 / -0.2 (revised from 0.0) / -1.9

UK – PM Keir Starmer refused calls to quit following disastrous results for Labour in local elections

• Preliminary results suggest Labour is in for the worst local elections outcome.
• Results so far show:
  • Reform in the lead at 398, up 396 seats
  • Lib dems at 249, up 37 seats
  • Labour down to 253, down 259 seats
  • Conservative 256, down 171 seats
  • Greens at 51, up 27
• Final results are due Saturday.
• Bond yields were little changed with long term borrowing costs remaining near their 30 years highs.
• 30y borrowing costs stand around 5.6%on concerns over a possible change in government leadership and borrowing plans as well as higher inflation outlook amid a war in the Middle East.

Anthropic is considering a $50bn raise this summer that would value the Claude maker at ~$900bn pre-money. (FT)

• Funds to be directed towards expanding its computing capacity.
• The Company is planning to spend $50bn on computing resources this year alone.
• The Company raised $30bn in March at a $350bn pre money valuation.
• The final round would imply ~15x increase on ~$60bn valuation seen just over a year ago (March 2025).

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,709/oz vs US$4,740/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.6moz vs 98.6moz previous

Platinum US$2,050/oz vs US$2,083/oz previous

Palladium US$1,504/oz vs US$1,558/oz previous

Silver US$79.7/oz vs US$79.3/oz previous

Silver ETFs 791.1moz vs 791.1moz previous

Rhodium US$9,950/oz vs US$9,950/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,543/t vs US$13,407/t previous

Aluminium US$3,509/t vs US$3,522/t previous

Nickel US$19,020/t vs US$19,210/t previous

Zinc US$3,441/t vs US$3,428/t previous

Lead US$1,968/t vs US$1,988/t previous

Tin US$54,350/t vs US$54,475/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$101.2/bbl vs US$97.9/bbl previous

• Brent crude oil prices edged above $100/bbl following fresh clashes between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, with US President Trump under pressure to secure a deal ahead of next week’s trip to China.
• Henry Hub prices gained after the EIA reported a lower-than-normal 63bcf w/w storage build to 2,205bcf, with US inventories now 3.5% above last year’s level and 6.7% above the five-year average as LNG export capacity fell 18bcf w/w to 115bcf based on the 30 LNG vessels departing US ports.

Natural Gas €44.5/MWh vs €42.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $86.0/lb vs $86.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$110.4/t vs US$110.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$479.8/t vs US$478.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$240.0/t vs US$235.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$134.0/t vs US$137.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$112,432/t vs US$113,563/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$27,116/t vs US$26,388/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,660/t vs US$2,590/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,283/mtu vs US$2,283/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$193/lb vs US$193/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.9/lb vs US$5.9/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.4/kg vs US$28.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$251/t vs US$251/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,799/t vs US$2,799/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,154/t vs US$1,154/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,325.0/kg vs US$3,275.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$29.0/lb vs US$28.5/lb

EV & Battery news:

Stellantis and Leapmotor to expand JV production to Europe

• European automaker Stellantis and Chinese manufacturer Leapmotor have plans to expand their existing partnership to increase EV production in Europe.
• Stellantis acquired around 21% of Leapmotor in 2023 to form a JV to sell and produce Leapmotor EVs outside of China.
• Under the new plans he two companies also plan to cooperate on joint purchasing to boost price competitiveness, strengthen supply chain resilience and accelerate time-to-market for new models.
• The plans also include the possibility of expanding production at Stellantis’ Zaragoza plant to build a new SUV under Stellantis’ Opel brand alongside the Leapmotor C-SUV B10 model, allowing efficiency from component sharing.
• At the same time, the Stellantis plant in Villaverde, Madrid, could start production of a new Leapmotor vehicle in 2028, helping to fill capacity following the planned end of production of the Citroen C4 at the site.

Company news:

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) 3,976p, Mkt Cap £38.2bn – AGM statement highlights expansion at Centinela and Los Pelambres to raise copper production 30% before 2030

• Antofagasta see global copper supply as remaining constrained with falling ore grades, water scarcity and increasingly complex permitting processes limiting the development of new capacity.
• Dividends: full-year payout raised to 50% of net earnings, increasing the dividend per share paid by 106% and well ahead of the minimum level set in the company’s dividend policy.
• Los Pelambres and Centinela are large scale and long life copper mines with well established infrastructure and deep operational expertise managing cost pressures.
• Centinela: construction of the second concentrator project is moving towards completing the installation of key equipment and pre-commissioning work.
• Los Pelambres: work continues on the expansion of the desalination plant and the new concentrate pipeline which are critical for long-term reliability and future growth.
• These projects are expected raise copper production by ~30% by 2030, while also improving margins, extending mine lives and enhancing operational resilience.
• Investments:
• Ongoing exploration in Chile, Peru and the US is advancing along side the company’s investment in Buenaventura.
• Zaldívar: EIA approved providing a pathway to extend its life to 2051.
• Autonomous trucks: pre-stripping started at new Encuentro Sulphides pit at Centinela in preparation for autonomous truck operation. An autonomous fleet already operates at Esperanza Sur.
• Cuprochlor-T: proprietary primary sulphide leaching technology
• Outlook: Antofagasta see the outlook for copper as compelling but with a heightened level of uncertainty in the macro-economic environment.
• Chile political environment:  The Chairman sees positive progress in the policy environment, with greater clarity and continued support for investment following the recent presidential election.
• The Chairman sees a consensus on the need to support economic growth, encourage investment, and improve the efficiency of permitting processes.

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) 4.24, Mkt cap 12m – Morrow Batteries ASA has files for bankruptcy in Norway

• Morrow Batteries ASA has filed for bankruptcy in Norway. Morrow was planning a LFP ‘Li-ion phosphate’ Gigafactory close to GreenRoc’s planned AMM production site in Norway.
• GreenRoc has a non-binding MoU with Morrow for the production of AMM, ‘Anode Active Material’.
• Fortunately for GreenRoc, European battery manufacturers will need to buy in around 1mtpa  of graphite anode active material to meet 1TWh of planned Li-ion battery production .
• Given there is currently no current production capacity for natural graphite AMM in Europe GreenRoc should be in a good place to serve this growth in demand from its Norwegian plant.
• Warrant exercise at 2p/s raises £230,769 on creation of 11,538,461 new shares
• Funding: GreenRoc has a £1.2m grant from the Danish government alongside a €5.2m secured loan facility from Danish Export and Investment Fund (EIFO) of which €3.3m was available for drawdown as of 27 March 2026.

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) 16p, Mkt Cap £54m – Production hit by wet weather at Cullinan

• Petra sold 782kct, up 58%qoq.
• Revenue generated $68m, up 39%qoq.
• ROM production stood at 1.5mt, down 4%yoy, with 1.7mt tonnes treated, down 3%.
• Power interruptions impacted production from the Cullinan Mine with deterioration of underground road conditions hitting machine availability.
• Bank loans and borrowings stood at $102m, with net debt increasing to $298m from $284m.
• Company withdraws production guidance from CDM for the remainder of the year, with focus on higher valued carats.

URU Metals* (URU LN) 5.94p, Mkt cap £5.8m – FDEM geophysical survey starts at the Zeb nickel project in the Busheld, South Africa

• URU Metals reports the start of its ground-based FDEM ‘frequency-domain electromagnetic’ survey at the Zeb Nickel Project in South Africa.
• The survey follows the completion of a recent ground-based gravity survey and should help target prospective higher-grade base-metal sulphide zones underground on the project.
• Drill target generation should follow on from the combination of results from coincident gravity-magnetic and electromagnetic anomalies which appear to show a magmatic conduit system.
• The ground-based FDEM survey provides:
  • Higher-resolution definition of conductive bodies
  • Improved discrimination between sulphide mineralisation and lithological conductors
  • Enhanced understanding of the geometry, depth, and continuity of EM anomalies
  • Greater confidence in prioritising drill targets
• “Integration of the FDEM results with the gravity and magnetic datasets is expected to significantly improve target definition and maximise the effectiveness of the Company’s upcoming drilling campaign.”
• Drilling: management are working on Request for Quotation documentation for the selection of a drilling contractor.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM LN) 9,980p, Mkt Cap £46bn – Continued strong free cash flow generation

• Streaming and royalty major Wheaton reports 1Q26 results.
• The Company reports the sale of 212koz AuEq over the period, up 22%yoy.
• Revenue reported at $901.5m, up 92%yoy.
• Operating cash flow reported up 112.3% to $766m.
• Company reports $2.2bn in cash at quarter end.
• Subsequent to the period end, Wheaton paid $4.3bn to BHP for a stream over Antamina, funded via cash on hand, a $2bn RCF and a $1.5bn Term Loan.
• Company reports unchanged annual production guidance of 860-940koz AuEq, with annual production expected to increase to 1.2moz AuEq from 2031.
• Wheaton has also signed streaming agreements with KGL Resources for gold and silver produced from Jervois in Australia and signed a 1.5% NSR royalty on gold and silver production from the Spanish Mountain Gold Mine.

SP Angel – No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026

No.1 for Precious Metals: Q1 2026

No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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