SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 4th March 2026

Copper climbs as market evaluates impact on sulfuric acid supply following Gulf disruption

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Brightstar Resources (BTR AU) – $120m debt funding package for Goldfields Project

Mila Resources (M ILA LN) – H1 results highlight progress in Queensland

Pensana (PRE LN) – Increased $165m strategic investment update

URU Metals* (URU LN) – Preparatory work for ground geophysical survey

WIA Gold* (WIA AU) – Underground picture comes together at Kokoseb

Copper ($13,142/t) climbs as market evaluates impact on sulfuric acid supply following Gulf disruption

• Copper has followed the wider metals spectrum higher this morning, as market volatility eases.
• Supply disruptions in the DRC were noted with the collapse of a key bridge south of the Zambian border.
• The route accounts for c.1/3^rd of the DRC’s refined copper exports, most of which goes to China.
• However, focus is on sulfuric acid supply following major disruptions out of the Middle East.
• Qatar halted sulphur production from its Ras Laffan facility this week, eliminating c.8% of global supply.
• Saudi Aramco has reportedly also halted sulphur production from its Ras Tanura refinery, which produces 2.8% of global supply.
• If sulphur supply remains constrained over an extended period, this may lift the cost of oxide leaching, feeding into higher prices.
• C.20% of global copper supply is produced from heap leach and SX-EW operations, with sulphuric acid a major component of operating costs.

Gold ($5,177/oz) rebounds following sharp correction yesterday, hitting miners

• Gold prices fell $400/oz over the past 24 hours, before rebounding this morning.
• The move followed a severe wave of degrossing across markets, with the SPY falling 2.2%.
• This saw the GDX Gold Miners Index slump 10% yesterday, before recovering some losses.
• Whilst we expect the increased aggression between US/Israel and Iran to be a long term tailwind to gold prices, profit taking was expected given the well-telegraphed attack from the White House.
• We wouldn’t be surprised to see gold catch a steady bid going forward, potentially retesting January’s record highs of $5,600/oz.
• China-US tensions remain the key driver, with Beijing looking to reduce dollar asset exposure, rotating Central Bank reserves into gold.
• Iran was a major source of oil and gas for China before the invasion, and increased US influence in Tehran may reduce China’s energy access going forward.
• Treasuries have also been volatile, as traders weigh up inflationary impacts from higher oil and gas prices against the traditional safe haven role of US government debt.
• Gold’s rebound has come despite a stronger dollar against a basket of major currencies, which may bode well for a further leg higher in bullion markets.

US – S&P and Nasdaq closed lower as markets discount prospects of a quick end to the war in Iran.

• The US-Israeli operation destabilised the region with the straight of Hormuz reportedly closed sending energy prices higher.
• The US$ paused following two days of gains on safe haven demand.
• The VIX is over 24, the highest since November last year.
• Brent is over $883/bbl while natural gas prices

Asian markets are selling off heavily on the news of disruptions to crude and LNG shipments from the Gulf.

• Japan that is relying for ~90% of its oil on the Middle East while South Koea sources ~70% of crude and up to 3%of natural gas from the region.
• Topix was down nearly 4% this morning.
• The KOSPI Index off 12%.

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel’s John Meyer

Worth reading – Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.1602/eur vs 1.1630/eur previous. Yen 157.32/$ vs 157.49/$. SAr 16.497/$ vs 16.285/$. $1.335/gbp vs $1.331/gbp. 0.702/aud vs         0.707/aud. CNY 6.911/$ vs 6.898/$.

Dollar Index 99.05 vs 98.98 previous.

Economics

China – A mixed set of official and private PMI measures covering the holiday period in February.

• Official Manufacturing PMI (Feb / Jan / Est): 49.0 / 49.3 / 49.2
• Official Services PMI (Feb / Jan / Est): 49.5 / 49.4 / 49.7
• Official Composite PMI (Feb / Jan / Est): 49.5 / 49.8 / NA
• Private Manufacturing PMI (Feb / Jan / Est): 52.1 / 50.3 / 50.1
• Private Services PMI (Feb / Jan / Est): 56.7 / 52.3 / 52.3
• Private Composite PMI (Feb / Jan / Est): 55.4 / 51.6 / NA

Spain – President Trump threatened to suspend trade relations with Spain after the government denied access to its military bases for American bombing aircrafts.

• Spain earlier also criticised President Trump calls for NATO allies to raise their defence spending to 5%of GDP.
• Ibex 50 was d 0.6% down on the news.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$5,156/oz vs US$5,307/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.8moz vs 100.9moz previous

Platinum US$2,148/oz vs US$2,165/oz previous

Palladium US$1,690/oz vs US$1,714/oz previous

Silver US$84.8/oz vs US$86.0/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 827.5moz vs 830.7moz previous

Rhodium US$11,850/oz vs US$12,050/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,105/t vs US$12,955/t previous

Aluminium US$3,296/t vs US$3,175/t previous

Nickel US$17,350/t vs US$17,120/t previous

Zinc US$3,297/t vs US$3,282/t previous

Lead US$1,939/t vs US$1,960/t previous

Tin US$50,600/t vs US$50,900/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$83.5/bbl vs US$80.4/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged lower as the US-led attacks on Iran entered a fifth day, with the API estimating that US oil inventories grew by 5.6mb w/w, much higher than the 2.2mb/d expected.
• European energy prices pulled back after President Trump pledged to insure and escort vessels passing through the Gulf if needed, as France’s nuclear generation fell 5% w/w to 76% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €56.5/MWh vs €54.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.9/lb vs $86.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$98.8/t vs US$99.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$463.1/t vs US$464.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$219.8/t vs US$218.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$138.0/t vs US$126.6/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$123,070/t vs US$126,116/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,778/t vs US$22,469/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,075/t vs US$2,075/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,953/mtu vs US$1,898/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$181/lb vs US$175/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.6/lb vs US$5.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.4/kg vs US$28.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,136/t vs US$1,138/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,045.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Norway EV fleet surpasses 1m vehicles, 30% of total registered vehicles

• According to the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, Norway’s EV fleet now comprises 951,300 battery-electric passenger cars and 50,300 battery-electric light commercial vehicles.
• Battery-electric models account for 32.4% of all passenger cars in circulation.
• In February, 98% of new registrations were electric, showing that the trend is not slowing.
• Norway also buck the trend when it comes to Tesla, with the Model Y the top selling model for the month, registering a 15% market share

Company News:

Brightstar Resources (BTR AU) A$0.52, Mkt Cap A$434m – $120m debt funding package for Goldfields Project

• BrightStar has raised $120m via the issue of $120m of senior secured bonds.
• The funding package, alongside the recent equity raise, will be used for the construction of the Goldfields Project.
• The bonds were issued over a four-year tenor, with a 12.5% pa coupon and 20% bullet payment at maturity.
• The Goldfields DFS outlined:

• • Six year production plan for 75kozpa with ore reserves of 351koz at 1.6g/t Au
  • Post-tax NPV8 at $4,220/oz of A$606m and IRR of 74%.
  • CAPEX of A$188m.

• Longer term, Brightstar is aiming to produce 200kozpa from the integration of the Sandstone project, which holds an MRE of 4moz at 1.5g/t Au.

Mila Resources (MILA LN) 1p, Mkt Cap £6.9m – H1 results highlight progress in Queensland

• Mila Resources reports a loss of £0.24m for the six months to 31^st December 2025 and a closing cash balance of £0.64m.
• In his letter to shareholders Executive Chairman, Mark Stephenson, highlights progress at the Yarrol gold project in Queensland including drilling results from core-drilling “which confirmed the continuity of gold-bearing structures outside the historic resource shell, with intercepts of ~5g/t gold traced from surface to ~230 metres depth”.
• Pending receipt of the remaining assay results, the company has “already begun our current 1,600m Reverse Circulation (“RC”) programme, which is focused on “stepping out” from the historic gold resource area and testing shallow depth mineralisation”.
• Mila Resources “has spent over £400,000 on exploration at Yarrol” during the six-month period and “remains focussed on implementing cost effective exploration programmes”.
• In addition, Mr. Stephenson confirms the company’s commitment to “advancing the Mt Steadman and Monal licences, which complete our Queensland project portfolio” with regional exploration “targeting Yarrol-Like gold targets and porphyry-like gold-copper targets similar to the recent discovery made at the neighbouring Mt Cannindah project”.
• He also highlighted the appointment of Alastair Goodship as Chief Operating Officer commenting on his “deep technical experience and knowledge with a proven ability to develop exploration projects from greenfield through to production”.

Pensana (PRE LN) 105p, Mkt Cap £355m – Increased $165m strategic investment update

• The Company reports strategic investment was increased to US$165M.
• The investment provided by Cascade Natural Resources, a rare earths focused investment fund, comes both at Company and Project level:
• $15m for a 3.8% interest in Pensana (13.55m new shares to be issued at 80p)
• $150m for a 38.2% interest in Sable Min Unipessoal, a majority shareholder in Ozango Minerais, the developer of the Longonjo REE Project in Angola.
• The investment is subject to long term documentation and completion expected in coming weeks.
• Pensana holds a ~68% interest in Ozango following $25m sovereign wealth fund investment (FSDEA) into Ozango that is to take its stake to ~25%.
• The funding along the proposed $160m ABSA debt facility(US EXIM guaranteed) covers Stage 1 Longonjo as well as early downstream development initiatives and the costs related to the proposed NASDAQ losting.
• The Project is guided to run at ~20ktpa MREC (~2.4ktpa NdPr) with $217m capex for Stage 1.
• Expansion is expected 2y post first production to ~40ktpa (~4.2ktpa NdPr) with $105m capex for Stage 2.
• The Company released an operational update yesterday reiterating maiden production for 2027.

URU Metals* (URU LN) 6.13p, Mkt cap £6.2m – Preparatory work for ground geophysical survey

• URU Metals has started preparatory work for a ground geophysical survey at the Zeb nickel project north of Johannesburg.
• The company is preparing survey lines to ensure “safe and continuous access for survey crews and equipment, and to ensure accurate data acquisition along the planned gravity and frequency-domain electromagnetic profiles”.
• The ground- based geophysics aims “to improve the resolution and accuracy of the airborne EM, magnetic, and gravity datasets previously completed across the Project … to better delineate conductive bodies that may represent semi-massive to massive nickel sulphide mineralisation associated with the interpreted magmatic conduit system”.
• Results from the programme “are expected to significantly refine drill targeting and reduce exploration risk ahead of the next drilling phase”.
• CEO, John Zorbas, said that “the higher-resolution ground surveys will allow us to sharpen our focus on the most prospective semi-massive nickel sulphide targets. … [and] … maximise the effectiveness of our upcoming drilling campaign”.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

WIA Gold* (WIA AU) A$0.58, Mkt Cap A$856m – Underground picture comes together at Kokoseb

• WIA Gold, who are developing the 3moz Kokoseb gold project in Namibia, report assay results from their ongoing drill programme.
• Today the Company reports 18 diamond drill holes targeting depth extensions below the open-pit MRE.
• 10 RC holes were also completed for infill drilling within the open pit.
• Assay results from the Southern Zone high-grade plunging shoot returned:

• • KDD134: 10.8m at 5.16g/t Au from 538m (inc. 4.6m at 11.2g/t Au)
  • KDD134: 6.3m at 5.41g/t Au from 551m (inc. 3m at 10.1g/t Au)
  • KDD125: 22.6m at 2.13g/t Au from 424m (inc. 5m at 7g/t Au)
  • KRC577: 4m at 19.4g/t Au from 367m

• Management notes the high-grade plunging shoot has now been extended 400m below the pit shell, with consistent and well-defined geometry at 150m approximate width and remaining open at depth.
• WIA also identified new high-grade targets beneath the Central Zone pit shell including:

• • KDD129: 20.7m at 5.77g/t Au from 579m (inc. 11m at 9.94g/t Au)
  • KDD114: 16m at 7.55g/t Au from 708m
  • KDD114: 7m at 5.77g/t Au from 743m

• Management notes that holes KDD114, KDD120 and KDD106 (11m at 4.46g/t Au) ‘indicate the discovery of an additional high-grade zone below the Central high-grade shoot.’
• The new high-grade target identified beneath the Central Zone will be prioritised in upcoming drilling programmes.
• Company also notes continuity confirmed in Central Zone high-grade plunging shoots, currently open at depth
• The central zone high-grade shoot has been defined over 550m of strike, remaining open down-plunge and locally along portions of its lateral margins.

Conclusion: WIA has reported drilling results from 28 holes at Kokoseb in Namibia. The Company has both confirmed continuity of the Southern Zone mineralisation 400m below the pit shell, and discovered a new high-grade target below the Central Zone. WIA is now fast-tracking underground resource definition and expansion. WIA expects to deliver a DFS in 2H26.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in WIA

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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