SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Friday 20th February 2026

Copper ($12,820/t) edges lower as elevated inventories cool deficit concerns

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo American (AAL LN) – Annual results as copper production lags, focus on Teck merger and balance sheet strength

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) – Annual results as Kipushi and Platreef ramp up

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) – Record HY Sales and EBITDA as Onslow runs at capacity

Newmont (NEM US) – Annual results amid escalating tensions with Barrick in Nevada

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – MB01-N maiden drilling programme completed at BCM

Perseus Mining (PRU AU) – Strong liquidity position and increased ore reserves at Nyanzaga

Copper ($12,820/t) edges lower as elevated inventories cool deficit concerns

• Copper’s sharp January rally is unwinding as traders look to elevated inventory levels.
• The move higher had followed renewed tariff concerns and a weaker dollar, alongside longer-term supply issues.
• The dollar has strengthened, taking some momentum out of copper’s move higher.
• However, inventory levels continue to build.
• Reuters reports copper in the major three exchanges has hit 1.1mt, the highest level since 2003.
• Whilst US inventory builds were most noticeable in 2025, this year has seen increased inflows into the LME and SHFE warehouses.
• Global inventories are up 300kt since the start of January.
• Tariff premiums are fading in the US, seen in lower CME premiums over LME copper.
• In China, Yangshan import premiums have fallen to 18-month lows amid weaker domestic copper demand.

US – President Trump said the next 10 days will show if the US to strike Iran or agree a deal.

• “Maybe we’re going to make a deal (with Tehran)… You’re going to be finding out over the next, probably, 10 days,” Trump said yesterday.
• The second strike group headed by Gerald R. Ford is on its way into the region and is expected to be arriving in the next weeks.

President Trump is considering an initial strike to force Iran to sign the deal in an attempt to avoid a full on military operation that develop into a major conflict.

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel’s John Meyer

Worth reading – Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.176/eur vs 1.1803/eur previous, Yen 155.46/$ vs 154.81/$, SAr 16.1441/$ vs 16.081/$, $1.3451/gbp vs $1.351/gbp, 0.705/aud vs 0.707/aud, CNY 6.909/$ vs 6.905/$

Dollar Index 97.94 vs 97.62 previous.

Economics

Imports into the US climbed to a record high in 2025 leaving the trade deficit little changed despite the administration to efforts to reduce the mismatch.

• Trade deficit was ~$902bn in 2025, little changed from $90bn the previous year.
• Imports came in at $4.3tn (+5%yoy) with exports at $3.4tn (+6%).

UK – Encouraging preliminary PMI results showing private sector expanded in February supported by new business orders.

• Manufacturing is regaining momentum with the respective PMI hitting 18-month high.
• On a downside, employment continued to struggle with a particular sharp drop in services on the back of rising costs.
• Inflation continued strong with the latest increase in prices coming in at the strongest pace since April 2025.
• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Feb / Jan): 52.0 / 51.8
• Preliminary Services PMI (Feb / Jan): 53.9 / 54.0
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Feb / Jan): 53.9 / 53.7

Eurozone – Pace of business activity expansion hit a three months high led by the manufacturing sector that returned to growth, likely, on a higher fiscal spending.

• February was the second month since mid-2022 when manufacturing crossed the 50 threshold.
• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Feb / Jan): 50.8 / 49.5
• Preliminary Services PMI (Feb / Jan): 51.8 / 51.6
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Feb / Jan): 51.9 / 51.3

India

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Feb / Jan): 57.5 / 55.4
• Preliminary Services PMI (Feb / Jan): 58.4 / 58.5
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Feb / Jan): 59.3 / 58.4

Japan – Private sector grows at the fastest pace since May 2023.

• Strong new orders and growth expectations saw inflation pick up at the quickest pace since May 2024.
• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Feb / Jan): 52.8 / 51.5
• Preliminary Services PMI (Feb / Jan): 53.8 / 53.7
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Feb / Jan): 533.8 / 53.1

Precious metals:         

Gold US$5,022/oz vs US$5,020/oz previous

Gold ETFs 100.1moz vs 100.1moz previous

Platinum US$2,115/oz vs US$2,106/oz previous

Palladium US$1,728/oz vs US$1,736/oz previous

Silver US$79.4/oz vs US$79.3/oz previous

Silver ETFs 829.6moz vs 829.6moz previous

Rhodium US$10,900/oz vs US$10,900/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,880/t vs US$12,863/t previous

Aluminium US$3,102/t vs US$3,077/t previous

Nickel US$17,307/t vs US$17,330/t previous

Zinc US$3,351/t vs US$3,339/t previous

Lead US$1,955/t vs US$1,965/t previous

Tin US$46,576/t vs US$46,140/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$71.2/bbl vs US$71.5/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices remain elevated due to the risk premium associated with the potential for US military action against Iran, as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draws of 9mb to crude, 3.2mb to gasoline and 4.6mb to distillates stocks, with refinery utilisation rising 1.6% to 91% on 13.7mb/d of domestic output.
• US Henry Hub prices edged lower after the EIA reported a 144bcf w/w storage draw to 2,070bcf (-148bcf exp), with US inventories now 3% below last year’s level and 6% below the five-year average as LNG export vessel capacity fell 10bcf w/w to 130bcf.

Natural Gas €33.5/MWh vs €33.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $88.8/lb vs $88.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$95.6/t vs US$95.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.1/t vs US$466.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$247.0/t vs US$247.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$121.0/t vs US$121.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$123,103/t vs US$123,103/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$19,479/t vs US$19,479/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,900/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,648/mtu vs US$1,648/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$131/lb vs US$131/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$26.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,959/t vs US$2,959/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,137/t vs US$1,137/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company News:

Anglo American (AAL LN) 3,647p, Mkt Cap £39bn – Annual results as copper production lags, focus on Teck merger and balance sheet strength

• Anglo American reports FY25 results.
• The Company generated $18.5bn in revenue for $6.4bn in EBITDA ($17.7bn and $6.3bn respectively in 2024).
• EBITDA breakdown:
  • Copper: $3,984m vs $3,804m 2024
  • Premium iron ore: $2,873m vs $2,655m
  • Manganese: $127m vs $116m
  • De Beers: -$511m vs -$25m
• Cash flow from operations reported at $7bn.
• Anglo produced 695kt Cu over the year, down from 773kt in 2024.
• Iron ore production reported at 60.8mt, flat yoy.
• Manganese ore production reported at 2,975kt vs 2,288kt 2024.
• Diamond production fell to 21.7Mct from 24.7Mct 2024.
• CAPEX over the year reported at $3.3bn, with $2.7bn worth of sustaining CAPEX to bring in the Venetia underground life-extension.
• Net debt as of 31^st December 2025 of $8.6bn vs $10.6bn, with cash reported at $6.4bn, down from $8.1bn.
• Management notes focus on strengthening the balance sheet using proceeds from the ‘portfolio optimisation’ and focus on ‘cash conversion.’
• Sale of the Steelmaking Coal business is ongoing and Management notes they are ‘progressing the separation of De Beers.’
• Company reports an impairment within De Beers of $2.3bn.

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) C$15.6, Mkt Cap C$22bn – Annual results as Kipushi and Platreef ramp up

• Ivanhoe reports 2025 annual results.
• Ivanhoe reports adj. EBITDA of $578m ($625m 2024) and PAT of $228m ($193m 2024).
• Attributable share of Kamoa Kakula EBITDA reported at $569m.
• Kamoa-Kakula sold 352kt Cu I 2025 at $4.4/lb with
• Kipushi sold 171kt Zn during the 2025 ramp up period, recording revenue of $441m for EBITDA of $91m.
• Cash and cash equivalents reported at $885m.
• Kamoa guiding for 380-420kt Cu in 2026 at C1 costs of $2.2-2.5/lb and 500-540kt in 2027 at $1.9-2.3/lb.
• CAPEX at Kamoa guided for $1.1-1.4bn in 2026 and $750-950m in 2027.
• Exploration drilling continues in Western Forelands, with an updated MRE due for Makoko in mid-2026.
• $40m exploration budget for Angola, Kazakhstan, South Africa and Zambia.

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) A$51, Mkt Cap A$11bn – Record HY Sales and EBITDA as Onslow runs at capacity

• The Company reports 1H26 with record Revenue and EBITDA as Onslow Iron running at nameplate capacity.
  • Revenue A$3.1bn (+33%yoy)
  • Underlying EBITDA A$1.2bn (+286%) including:
    • Iron Ore A$573m (1H25: -A$9m) on successful Onslow Iron transition to nameplate
    • Lithium A$167m (1H25: -A$15m) on stronger prices, higher volumes and lower FOB costs, driven by higher recoveries
    • Mining Services A$488m (+29%yoy)
  • Underlying PAT A$0.3bn (1H25: -A$0.2bn).
  • FCF A$0.3bn (1H25: -A$897m) post A$0.6bn capex.
  • Closing Cash A$0.6bn and Net Debt A$4.9bn
  • ND/EBITDA 2.8x, down from 5.9x in FY25.
• FY26 guidance unchanged post January upgrades to lithium production and Onslow Iron FOB costs coming in at the lower end of the range:
  • Iron Ore
    • Onslow 17.1-18.8mt (att) at $54-59/t
    • Pilbara 9.0-10.0mt at $75-80/t
  • Lithium
    • Wodgina 260-280kt SC6 at $730-800/SC6
    • Mt Marion 190-210kt SC6 at $820-890/SC6
• Proceeds from the POSCO (~A$1.1b) transaction expected 2H26 helping to deleverage the business towards the 2.0x target by the end of FY26.

Newmont (NEM US) $125, Mkt Cap $137bn – Annual results amid escalating tensions with Barrick in Nevada

• Newmont reports annual results for 2025.
• Company produced 5.9moz over the year, alongside 28moz Ag and 135kt Cu.
• EBITDA reported at $13.5bn, with $10.3bn in cash from operating activities and $7.3bn in free cash flow.
• Net cash position at year end reported at $2.1bn.
• 2026 guided at 5.3moz at AISC of $1,680/oz.
• Additionally, Newmont has sent Barrick mining Corp a notice of default over alleged mismanagement at the Nevada JV.
• Newmont has accused Barrick of diverting resources from the JV to its wholly-owned Fourmile project.

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.34p, Mkt Cap £16m – MB01-N maiden drilling programme completed at BCM

• Oriole has completed the 3,000m diamond drilling programme at MB01-N.
• As a result, BCM has now earned a 50% interest in the project.
• 15 holes were completed, with six holes due later in 1Q26.
• Company intends to prepare a maiden JORC Resource for MB01-N following the receipt of final results.
• A step-out drilling programme is planned at MB01-S in 2Q26.
• Highlight results from MB01-N drilling include:
  • MBDD026: 22m at 3.1g/t Au
  • MBDD027: 16m at 2.49g/t Au and 14.8m at 0.73g/t Au
  • MBDD025: 16m at 0.77g/t Au
  • MBDD031: 7m at 1g/t Au

Perseus Mining (PRU AU) A$5.9, Mkt Cap A$8bn – Strong liquidity position and increased ore reserves at Nyanzaga

• Perseus reports 1HFY26 results.
• The Company generated $609m in revenue, for $316m in EBITDA.
• Operating cash flow reported at $193m.
• Interim dividend of $0.05/share.
• Net cash and bullion reported at $755m.
• Perseus has upsized its undrawn debt facility to $400m, and holds $229m in marketable securities.
• Company guides to 400-440koz at all-in site costs of $1,600-1,760/oz.
• 2026 production breakdown of:
  • Yaoure: 168-184koz
  • Edikan: 154-169koz
  • Sissingue: 78-87koz
• Additionally, Perseus reports Nyanzaga ore reserves have increased to 91mt at 1.38g/t Au for 4.05moz. (from 2.3moz Au in April 2025)
• The increase reflects 82,700m of drilling across the Tusker and Kilimani deposit areas, aimed at infill and extension to convert the MRE from inferred to Indicated.
• Company expects Nyanzaga to produce 200kozpa from FY28-41.
• Perseus estimates LOM AISC of $1,621/oz from the project and a post-tax NPV10 of $864m using $3,000/oz Au for a 29% IRR.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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