SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Thursday 12th February 2026

Gold well supported over $5,000/oz despite NFPs beat, eyes on Friday CPI data

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Albemarle (ALB US) – FY25 results with Kemerton LHM Plant put on C&M

First Tin (1SN LN) – By-product potential at the Taronga tin project

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) – H1 progress on advancing Nevada tungsten projects

New Frontier Minerals (NFM LN) – Option to earn into the Pomme REE-Nb Project, Quebec

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – Drilling results from Mbe, Cameroon

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Further drilling results from Redmoor show mineralisation continues to the west

Yellow Cake (YCA LN) – Upsized $110m equity raise

VOX video:  The most extraordinary week in commodities I’ve ever witnessed

• Podcast:  The Vox Markets Podcast

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel’s John Meyer

Worth reading – Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

Currencies

US$1.1881/eur vs 1.1915/eur previous. Yen 153.02/$ vs 153.29/$. SAr 15.886/$ vs 15.873/$. $1.364/gbp vs $1.368/gbp. 0.713/aud vs 0.710/aud. CNY 6.901/$ vs 6.912/$.

Dollar Index 96.81 vs 96.60 previous.

Economics

US – Payrolls surprised on the upside in January with unemployment rate unexpectedly falling.

• Employers added 130k jobs last month with the jobless rate hitting 4.3% (-0.1pp).
• The data supports the Fed decision to pause rate cuts.
• Markets now see the first cut in July, as opposed to June before the data release.
• Attention now turns to inflation data due Friday.
• NFPs (Jan / Dec / Est): 130k / 48k (revised from 50k) / 65k
• Unemployment Rate (Jan / Dec / Est): 4.3% / 4.4% / 4.4%
• Av Hourly Earnings (%mom, Jan / Dec / Est): 0.4% / 0.1% (revised from 0.3%) / 0.3%
• Av Hourly Earnings (%yoy, Jan / Dec / Est): 3.7% / 3.7% (revised from 3.8%) / 3.7%

The House passed legislation to end Trump’s levies on Canadian imports in a sign of a growing anxiety ahead of midterm elections.

• President is likely to veto the bill but defections from six Republicans in the vote will not be unnoticed. (Bloomberg)
• Coming elections are expected to focus on affordability with Democrats blaming Republicans who voted to protect the tariffs for rising cost of living.

Brent briefly hit $70/bbl on a WSJ report citing US officials that a second aircraft carrier strike group was told to prepare to deploy to the Middle East.

• Earlier oil prices pulled back after President Trump insisted in the meeting with Israeli PM Banjamin Netanyahu continue.

Japan – PM Takaichi highlighted “responsible proactive fiscal policy” approach in addressing bond market concerns.

• Markets are questioning PM plans to cut the sales tax on food for two years while ramping up spending on defence and strategic industries.
• 10y yields are stable at 2.24%, close to the highest they have been in 1990s.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$5,063/oz vs US$5,049/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.1moz vs 100.1moz previous

Platinum US$2,111/oz vs US$2,152/oz previous

Palladium US$1,715/oz vs US$1,760/oz previous

Silver US$83.6/oz vs US$83.5/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 842.1moz vs 842.6moz previous

Rhodium US$10,550/oz vs US$10,400/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,273/t vs US$13,204/t previous

Aluminium US$3,157/t vs US$3,124/t previous

Nickel US$17,695/t vs US$17,940/t previous

Zinc US$3,436/t vs US$3,427/t previous

Lead US$1,995/t vs US$1,983/t previous

Tin US$50,150/t vs US$50,600/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$69.0/bbl vs US$69.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged lower as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory builds of 8.5mb to crude and 1.2mb to gasoline, partially offset by a 2.7mb build to distillates stocks, with refinery utilisation falling 1.1% to 89.4% on 13.7mb/d of output.
• European energy prices were stable even as EU natural gas storage levels fell 3.6% w/w to 35.6% full (vs 52.2% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 407TWh and German storage levels sinking to ~25% full (vs 53% 5-Yr average).
• OPEC+ kept growth forecasts for global oil supply (+0.6mb/d, +0.6mb/d) and demand (+1.4mb/d, +1.3mb/d) unchanged for this year and next, while also reporting that oil output declined by 439kb/d to 42.45mb/d during January due to losses in Kazakhstan (Tengiz outage), Venezuela (US blockade) and Iran (US sanctions).

Natural Gas €32.4/MWh vs €32.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $88.7/lb vs $88.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$99.4/t vs US$99.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.8/t vs US$466.4/t

HCC FOB Australia US$241.0/t vs US$244.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$115.7/t vs US$116.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$123,169/t vs US$124,428/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$19,490/t vs US$19,460/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,900/t vs US$1,900/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,648/mtu vs US$1,648/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$131/lb vs US$128/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$26.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$262/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,137/t vs US$1,136/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$372.5/t vs US$372.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company News:

Albemarle (ALB US) US$175, Mkt Cap $21bn – FY25 results with Kemerton LHM Plant put on C&M

• The Company puts the last line (Train 1) at the Kemerton Lithium Hydroxide Plant on care and maintenance effective immediately.
• The decision follows the idling Train 2 in 2024 and cancelling its expansion plans (Train 3 and 4).
• Shutting down the plant “follows significant actions we have taken over the past two and a half years to reduce operating costs during an extended period of price volatility in the market,” CEO said.
• Recent recovery in lithium prices alone are reported to have been not enough to offset the challenges.
• FY25 results highlights:
  • Net Sales US$5.1bn (-4%yoy)
  • Adjusted EBITDA $1.1bn (-4%yoy)
  • Att Net Income -$267m (FY24: -$1,179m)
  • CFO $1.3bn driven by cost and productivity improvements as well as a customer prepayment in January 2025.
  • FCF 0.7$bn reflecting stronger operating CFs and lower capex ($590m, -65%yoy).
• FY25 Energy Storage results:
  • Net Sales $2.7bn
  • Av Realised Price ~$11,500/LCE
  • Adjusted EBITDA $0.7bn (-8%yoy)
  • F26 Energy Storage production volumes forecast flat.
• Commenting on lithium market
  • In 2025, demand growth (~30%) outpaced supply growth (~20%) leading to tight inventories and increased pricing by YE
  • Demand and supply expected to grow at similar rates in 2026.
  • Lithium demand forecast at 1.6mt LCE 2026.
  • Demand to hit 2.8-3.6mt LCE by 2030.
  • Stationary storage demand climbed 84%yoy in 2025.
  • ESS to account for 1.2-2.0mt LCE by 2030, up from 640kt LCE in 2026.

First Tin (1SN LN) 17.5p, Mkt Cap £92m – By-product potential at the Taronga tin project

• First Tin reports that recent drilling at its Taronga tin project in NSW has shown “silver and copper mineralisation associated with, and spatially proximal to, the existing tin mineralisation”.
• The additional mineralisation is reported to occur in “two geological settings”.
• The first is as by-products associated with the tin mineralisation including:

• • A 71m wide intersection at an average grade of 3.44g/t silver, 0.07% copper and 0.09% tin from surface in hole TMTARC-056: and
  • 25m at an average grade of 4.70g/t silver, 0.08% copper and 0.13% tin from 54m depth in hole TMTARC-060: and
  • 12m at an average grade of 4.84g/t silver, 0.10% copper and 0.18% tin from 38m depth to the end of the hole TMTARC-067: and
  • 34m at an average grade of 2.86g/t silver, 0.06% copper and 0.14% tin from 18m depth in hole TMTARC-090: and

• Secondly, as “High grade, cross-cutting, silver-rich mineralisation, not directly associated with the main tin zones and geologically similar to the nearby Webbs silver deposit” including

• • A 5m wide interval at an average grade of 506g/t silver, 2.64% lead and 1.17% zinc from a depth of 41 in hole TMTARC083; and
  • 2m at an average grade of 196.5g/t silver, 0.10% lead and 0.80% zince from a depth of 58m in hole TMTARC124; and

• Metallurgical testing to refine the tin processing shows “that silver and copper are partially concentrated into sulphide flotation residues generated during tin concentration, dressing and clean-up”.
• “These residues are currently planned to be stored separately in the Residue Storage Facility … preserving the option for future retreatment, subject to further test work and economic assessment”.
• CEO, Bill Scotting, confirmed that “Taronga remains a tin-focused development project … [but said that] … given the recent increases in the prices of silver and copper, First Tin intends to undertake further technical and economic work to assess the upside potential of these metals to the overall project”.

Conclusion: Recent drilling at Taronga shows by-product silver and copper potential.

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) 192.5p, Mkt Cap £322m – H1 progress on advancing Nevada tungsten projects

• Guardian Metal Resources reports a US$5.2m loss for the six months to 31^st December 2025 (2024 – US$1.1m loss) and a closing cash balance of US$10.6m.
• The company highlights operational progress at its Nevada tungsten projects at Pilot Mountain and Tempiute.
• An updated mineral resource estimate at Pilot Mountain “delivered a 16% increase in the Open Pit Constrained Indicated Mineral Resources vs the 2018 Scoping Study … [indicating its] … potential suitability for open-pit mining and accelerated pathway to development” and progressing the pre-feasibility work for the project.
• At Tempiute, an inaugural diamond drilling programme is currently underway and is starting to confirm “scheelite-bearing skarn intervals of varying thicknesses beyond the historical mined area”.
• The company has acquired additional unpatented claims at Tempiute, including the old Schofield mine area, and extending “the mineralised strike length at Tempiute to approximately 3km”.
• The company has also acquired 101 additional claims in the Walker Lane mineral belt of Nevada, including “five historical tungsten mines, to comprise the Pilot North Project, advantageously located just 15km from the Pilot Mountain Project and sharing the same access road”.
• Although it reaffirms its focus on tungsten, in the current gold price environment, Guardian Metals “has continued to advance plans to unlock value from both the exciting epithermal gold opportunity that exists at Garfield, as well as the Carlin-type gold opportunity at the Company’s Golconda project in Nevada”.

Conclusion: The focus remains on progressing the Nevada tungsten portfolio where Guardian Metals has expanded its land position at Tempiute and on the Pilot North project

New Frontier Minerals (NFM LN) 1.1p, Mkt Cap £14m – Option to earn into the Pomme REE-Nb Project, Quebec

• The Company signed a binding option to earn a majority interest (90%) into the Pomme REE-Nb Project in Quebec, Canada.
• The Pomme Project is a large, carbonatite hosted REE-Nb system and is being explored by ASX listed Metallium under an option with Geomega Resources.
• Pomme is an early-stage exploration project comprising 43 mineral claims covering ~2,400ha area and is located 7km from the Geomega’s Montviel Deposit, one of the largest undeveloped bastnaesite REE deposits (266Mt @ 1.46% TREO and 0.14% Nb2O5 MRE).
• Metallium carried a 13-hole DD programme for ~5,700m at the Project with every hole intersecting mineralisation and confirming the system over more than 2km2.
• Large areas remain untested from reconnaissance drilling.
• The agreement also deepens a strategic technology partnership with Metallium regarding its proprietary Flash Joule Heating (FJH) beneficiation process.
• The technology upgrades ROM material producing high grade, Dy/Tb rich concentrates without conventional flotation, acid leaching or reagent intensive processing.
• Historical drilling highlights include:
  • Drillhole POM-23-03:  398m @ 0.54% TREO & 0.05% Nb₂O₅ from 16m, including:
    • 30.5m @ 1.13% TREO & 0.03% Nb₂O₅ (from 311.5m) including
      • 26.5m @ 1.45% TREO & 0.02% Nb₂O₅
    • 51m @ 0.92% TREO & 0.06% Nb₂O₅ (from 216m) including
      • 9m @ 1.21% TREO & 0.03% Nb₂O₅ and
    • 36m @ 0.92% TREO & 0.06% Nb₂O₅ (from 174m) including
      • 18m @ 1.16% TREO & 0.03% Nb₂O₅
  • Drillhole POM-23-01: 513m @ 0.33% TREO & 0.08% Nb₂O₅ from 32m, including:
    • 17.5m @ 0.68% TREO & 0.08% Nb₂O₅ (from 228.6m) including
      • 7.6m @ 0.9% TREO & 0.02% Nb₂O₅, and
• The project is easily accessed via logging roads, has access to hydro-electric power, relatively flat topography and is supported by extensive mining infrastructure/services.
• Next steps:
  • Preliminary metallurgical testwork on existing diamond core samples using conventional and proprietary MRM FJH beneficiation technology
  • Model geology and identify higher grade zones for follow up drilling
• Consideration:
  • Fee on exercise of an option:
    • A$150k cash and A$200k NFM shares
    • A$100k annual minimum spend (24m period)
    • Option exercise conditions include completion of DD, third party approvals and Technology License Agreement between Metallium and NFM among others.
  • Stage 2 – JORC MRE (within 3 years)
    • A$2.0m minimum spend
    • A$250k cash and A$250k NFM shares upon earning 80%
  • Stage 3 – PFS (within 5 years)
    • A$3.0m minimum spend
    • A$250k cash and A$250k NFM shares upon earning 90%
  • Vendor retains a 10% free carried interest to DFS and if diluted <10%, interest to convert to a 1.5% NSR royalty.
  • 3rd party royalties (GeoMega/Niogold) remain in place

Conclusion: The option to earn up to 90% in Pomme REE-Nb Project in Quebec secures exposure to a large, carbonite-hosted system in a tier one mining jurisdiction with strong infrastructure and diversifies NFM portfolio that holds an interest in Harts Range REE Project, Australia. Capital efficient nature of the deal allows for a limited upfront consideration and staged earn-in milestones as NFM de-risks the asset through drilling and metallurgy before committing meaningful capital. Importantly, Metallium remains involved as a processing and technology partner with its Flash Joule Heating (FJH) that is being tested as an alternative route to beneficiation.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.36p, Mkt Cap £17m – Drilling results from Mbe, Cameroon

• Oriole reports that its initial drilling at the 90% owned Mbe project in Cameroon has extended the known mineralisation to “at least 300m width, 550m in length, and to 185m vertical depth” and that it remains “open in all directions”.
• Three holes completed so far (MBDD-031, MBDD-032 and MBDD-033) have intersected “further gold intersections”, including:
  • 7.00m at 1.02g/t Au from 49.50m in hole MBDD-031 which also intersected 1.00m at 4.42g/t Au from 17.50m and 1.00m at 2.63g/t Au from 37.40m and 2.00m at 1.51g/t Au from 113.70m, including 1.00m at 2.67g/t Au
  • Hole MBDD-032 intersected 4.00m at an average grade of 0.35g/t gold from 212.50m depth; and
  • Hole MBDD-033 intersected 1.10m at an average grade of 4.39g/t gold from 177.20m depth as well as a shallower single metre interval at 2.03g/t at 154.90m depth; 1.10m at 1.47g/t at 108.50m and 4.20m at 0.49g/t from 14.90m and 2m at 0.79g/t at 47m
• The drilling programme is  now “around 90% complete, with approximately 2,650m drilled in thirteen holes and two holes left in the programme”.
• CEO, Martin Rosser, confirmed that “The latest set of drilling results has significantly extended the mineralised system dimensions, yet it remains open in all directions”.

Conclusion: Initial drilling at Mbe has extended the known mineralisation, which still remains open laterally and at depth. We await results from the remaining two holes of the programme

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 3.55p, Mkt Cap £95m – Further drilling results from Redmoor show mineralisation continues to the west

• Strategic Minerals has released results from a further hole of its 5,000m 2025 drilling campaign at the Redmoor tungsten/tin/copper project in Cornwall.
• Hole CRD-037 was drilled into a previously undrilled central section of the Sheeted Vein System (SVS) ‘Exploration Target’ area west of the know area of mineralisation and “along strike from historical drillholes such as RM80_16B”.
• Historical records show RM80-16B reporting a 10m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.29% copper, 0.25% tin and 0.08% WO₃ from a depth of 364m.
• This latest drilling continues to show the continuity of “high-grade mineralisation containing tungsten, tin, and copper with silver within tungsten- and tin-dominant zones … [including] … a continuous zone of mineralisation of 51.30m at 0.11% WO3, 0.13% Sn & 0.40% Cu … from 520.00 m”.
• The highlighted results from CRD-037 include:

• • A 2.23m wide section at an average grade of 0.48% tin and 0.02% copper (reported as 0.40% on a tungsten trioxide (WO3 ) equivalent basis) from a depth of 408.95m; and
  • A 1.64m wide section at an average grade of 0.25% WO3, 0.26% tin and 0.74% copper (reported as 0.67% WO3Eq) from a depth of 489.00m; and
  • A 2.85m intersection averaging 0.71% WO3, 0.15% tin and 0.38% copper (0.94% WO3 Eq) from a depth of 520.00m within the 51.30m wide zone reported above which also hosts;
  • 0.95m at an average grade of 0.48% WO3, 0.18% tin and 0.58% copper (reported as 0.78% WO3Eq) from a depth of 530.55m; and
  • 2.00m at an average grade of 0.07% WO3, 0.49% tin and 0.58% copper (reported as 0.63% WO3Eq) from a depth of 542.50m; and
  • A single metre wide section at a grade of 0.01% WO3, 0.53% tin and 2.57% copper (reported as 1.13% WO3Eq) from a depth of 548.00m; and
  • A 1.20m wide section at an average grade of 0.70% WO3, 0.28%tin and 1.40% copper (reported as 1.30% WO3Eq) from a depth of 564.25m.

• Today’s announcement also reports a continuation of a mineralogical association observed in previous holes of the 2025 drilling campaign and first identified as part of last year’s programme to relog historic core from the 2017/18 exploration campaign, with “elevated silver mineralisation associated with higher-grade copper mineralisation within the sheeted vein system confirmed with results including 1m @ 52.90 g/t Ag, 2.57% Cu, 0.53% Sn and 0.01% WO3 from 548.00m”.

• Dennis Rowland, Managing Director of Strategic Minerals’ operating company, Cornwall Resources, said that hole CRD-038 “intersected the core of a high-priority section of the Exploration Target, demonstrating the continuation of SVS high-grade mineralisation through this previously untested section”.
• He said that this provides “additional support for the continuity of the geological model within this section, highlighting the presence of high-grade tungsten- and tin-dominant zones, and therefore additional confidence when designing the upcoming infill drilling programme”.
• Mark Burnett, Executive Director of Strategic Minerals said that the latest results from the 2025 drilling “indicate potential for additional Mineral Resources, subject to modelling, estimation and demonstration of RPEEE” (Reasonable Prospect of Eventual Economic Extraction).
• Mr. Burnett said that results from the two remaining holes of the 2025 drilling campaign and metallurgical test results remain to come and that Strategic Minerals is “quickly advancing towards the production of the new MRE for Redmoor”.

Conclusion: We look forward to the forthcoming revised MRE incorporating the 2025 drilling for further insights into the scale and geometry of the Redmoor deposit and to plans for the previously announced 2026 campaign for a further 16,000m programme of infill drilling which the company has said “is expected to substantially complete all the required drilling for a prefeasibility study”.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

Yellow Cake (YCA LN) 642p, Mkt Cap £1.5bn – Upsized $110m equity raise

• The Company raises $110m, an increase from initially planned minimum $75m, to fund further uranium purchases.
• The placing involves an issue of ~12.8m shares at £6.29/share, almost no discount to the last close (647p).
• Proceeds to be used for:
  • Acquire ~1.6mlbs at $86.15/lb from Kazatomprom, fully utilising its purchase option for CY26;
  • Fund opportunistic and strategic on-market purchases of further uranium;
  • General working capital.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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