SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Thursday 29th January 2026

Gold jumps over $5,500/oz as Powell cautions on US deficit

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) – Five year-low net cash costs beat 2025 guidance as benefits of gold by product credits feed through

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) – Transformational uranium acquisition in Namibia supported by £1.7m placing

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – Copper-Silver Mineralised Structures Identified, Agdz Est Project, Morocco

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Quarterly report

Endeavour Mining (EDV LN) – Strong results support deleveraging, focus on organic growth pipeline

Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) – Copper production back on track following weak 1H25

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – High-grade gold identified in reverse circulation drilling at the Bill’s Luck gold mine in Zimbabwe

First Development Resources (FDR LN) – Exploration geophysics at the Selta project NT, Australia

Galan Lithium (GLN AU) – A$40m raise for Phase 1 expansion

Ioneer (INR AU) SUSPENDED – Pending equity raise

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Board changes

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Improved geological modelling at Redmoor should enhance the forthcoming MRE

Gold ($5,509/oz) jumps in Asian trading after Powell cautions on US deficit

• Gold has now climbed 12% over the past week, touching $5,595/oz overnight.
• The move higher follows yesterday’s FOMC meeting, where the Fed expectedly held rates steady.
• However, to us, the most notable moment from the Fed meeting was Powell’s comments on the state of the US deficit.
• Whilst Powell stated US debt levels are currently sustainable, he warned that the fiscal path is not.
• Debasement trade – sell government bonds and dollars
  • Gold ETFs now hold >142moz globally worth 783bn.
  • Asian ETF now hold >14.7moz
• A major driver for the gold rally has been sustained concerns over current debt loads within G7 economies.
• Sticky inflation has reduced Central Bankers’ ability to cut rates, further fuelling concerns over the unsustainable nature of current deficit levels.
• Silver posted new highs overnight at $122/oz, whilst PGMs also rallied.
• The dollar has held lower levels following this week’s sharp sell-off, now sitting at 96.4 on the index.
• Traders are watching for a potential US intervention in Yen markets, although Bessent has dismissed this.

Silver hits $122/oz in London trading

Copper ($13,922/t) jumps 6% to new all-time high of $14,125/t on strong LME trade

• Chinese trading is leading copper 6% higher this morning, with nickel and zinc both rising >3% respectively.
• Traders suspect there is some stop loss buying and option related trade.
• Trump’s increasingly erratic foreign policy moves are driving investors to seek exposure to real assets, with metals a primary beneficiary.
• Tarif concerns continue to draw copper into the US
• That being said, China is boosting imports, with December imports up 2.3%mom at 437kt.
• Copper markets remain tight after metal flowed into US exchanges to take advantage of tariff-fuelled premiums.
• This has left Asia short of copper inventories, pushing prices higher.
• Further escalation between the US and China raises the potential to boost stockpiling appetite, driving base metals higher.
• CTAs seen driving base metals higher

• Copper Stablecoin: TCX ‘Tiberius Coin’ a commodity-backed token including copper, aluminum, nickel, gold, platinum, cobalt, and tin.
• ETC: COPA ‘WisdomTree Copper’ gives investors exposure to copper futures contracts
• UCITS ETFs:
  • ETFs: ICOP ‘’iShares Copper and Metals Mining’
  • COPX / COPG ‘Global X Copper Miners ETF’
• Equity ETFs:
  • COPP Sprott copper miners ETF
  • COPJ Sprott junior copper miners ETF

Uranium Futures jump to $98.3/lb vs $91.0/lb yesterday

Tungsten APT price jumps another 3% ($39/mtu) to $1,429/mtu from $1,390/mtu yesterday for 88.5% min quality

• China is seen constraining mine supply on environmental and safety inspections.
• Stockpiling: the US, EU and China are likely stockpiling for their defense industries as global tensions rise
• Drones use tungsten for armour despite its weight. Tungsten weighs the same as gold.
• Tungsten is used in machine tools with new demand coming from the reconfiguration of factories.
• The development of new factories for EVs and Hybrids will be a driver.

Iran – Arabic media reports that Iran is engaging in indirect negotiations through mediating countries to stave off an expected American attack.

• Trump appears to have changed US terms to focus on a complete halt on:
  • enriching uranium,
  • a significant reduction of Iran’s missile stockpiles,
  • an end to funding terror proxies.
• This does not appear to include an end to killing protestors against the regime

US advances preparations for strike on Iran

• The strike force includes: One aircraft carrier strike group, F-15E Strike Eagles, MQ-9 Reaper drones, P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft, and expanded Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems.
• The US has 30,000-40,000 soldiers in nine locations across the Middle East within reach of Iranian missiles and drones.
• One loose missile from either side will be enough to spark a major conflict.
• Chancellor Merz of Germany, commented the Iranian regime’s “days are numbered,” “this regime has no legitimacy”
• The EU has been trying to classify the Iranian Republican Guard as a terrorist organization but a couple of nations have refused to agree with the move.

Geopolitics – it only takes one order from Trump to start a war with Iran

• Ok, Iran has been at war with Israel through its proxies for decades but potential for escalation is substantial.
• The US chain of command follows direct orders from the President. If the President orders an illegal strike then anyone who carries out that order is potentially liable for war crimes.
• But, deciding on what is legal and illegal is not so easy so the order is likely to be followed through.
• Iran has pointed out that a war with Iran will likely cost the US far more than its occupation of Afghanistan.
• It is possible the US might make a series of surgical strikes to weaken the Iranian Republican Guard which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US, Saudi Arabia, Bahriain and others.

Tesla to end production of its Model S and Model X vehicles using manufacturing facilities to produce humanoid robots Optimus.

• The move highlights increasing shift in the business model amid increasing competition from Chinese EVs.
• 4Q25 results beat estimates on the back of better than expected profits on energy while EV revenues were down 11%yoy on lower vehicle deliveries.
• Tesla also had its first official YOY decline in revenues for a full year in 2025.

Rare Earths – US is to step back from minimum price guarantees from US critical minerals projects supplying EV, semiconductors, defence and consumer electronics.

• Two senior Trump officials told US minerals executives that their projects would need to prove their economic case without government price support, Reuters cites people familiar with discussions.
• People involved are Audrey Robertson, an assistant secretary of the US Department of Energy and head of its Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation, and Joshua Kroon, the deputy assistant secretary for textiles, consumer goods, materials, critical minerals and metals at the Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration.
• Reports suggested that Washington was no longer in a position to offer price floors.
• MP Materials deal with a $110/kkg NdPr floor price and EBITDA margin guarantees was not under a risk of withdrawal.
• The Energy Department told Reuters in a statement after the story was published that the article was “false and relies on unnamed sources that are either misinformed or deliberately misleading.”
• Rare earth names pulled back on the news.

Humanoid robots to see explosion in solid-state battery requirements

• A TrendForce report forecasts that demand for solid-state batteries for humanoid robots could exceed 74GWh by 2035.
• Early forecasts for 2026 indicate 0.05GWh will be required this year, with 50,000 units being shipped worldwide, an annual growth of 700%.

IG TV – Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/-YKK0NzMLZ0?si=i-83_jtBI8u5bM86

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel’s John Meyer

Worth reading – Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

NdPr prices surged through US$100,068/t yesterday

 Currencies

US$1.1968/eur vs 1.1994/eur previous. Yen 153.34/$ vs 152.50/$. SAr 15.749/$ vs 15.806/$. $1.382/gbp vs $1.381/gbp. 0.706/aud vs 0.701/aud. CNY 6.946/$ vs 6.945/$

Dollar Index 96.24 vs 96.04 previous

Economics:

US – The Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% , in line with expectations.

• Powell pointed to an improved economic outlook with jobs market showing signs of improvement implying no immediate need for lower rates.
• Commenting on inflation, Powell said tariffs are responsible for above target rate.
• “Most of the overshoot was in goods prices, which we think is related to tariffs… We think those will not result in inflation, as opposed to a one-time price increase,” Powell commented.
• The vote was to 10-2 to hold put.
• Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, both supported by President Trump, voted for a cut.
• Markets are expecting the next rate cut in June.

The US$ index jumped yesterday on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered some support to the greenback saying the US is following “a strong dollar policy”.

• Comments followed earlier President Trump remarks that he was now worried about the latest sell off in the US$.

China – Over a dozen Chinese provinces are cutting their economic growth targets for 2026 suggesting the nationwide goal may be revised lower.

• Most of the 20 regions with public targets reduced their growth goals from last year, Bloomberg cites local reports.
• Revisions include downgrades by 0.5pp or a change to range with lower end.
• The official national GDP growth target may be come in at 4.5-5.0%, from around 5.0% before, when it is announced during the annual legislative sessions in early March.

Precious metals:

Gold US$5,509/oz vs US$5,305/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.6moz vs 100.5moz previous

Platinum US$2,721/oz vs US$2,711/oz previous

Palladium US$2,057/oz vs US$1,992/oz previous

Silver US$116.3/oz vs US$114.8/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 834.7moz vs 839.8moz previous

Rhodium US$10,850/oz vs US$10,775/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,981/t vs US$13,228/t previous

Aluminium US$3,309/t vs US$3,289/t previous

Nickel US$18,915/t vs US$18,475/t previous

Zinc US$3,475/t vs US$3,419/t previous

Lead US$2,048/t vs US$2,033/t previous

Tin US$56,000/t vs US$56,500/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$69.6/bbl vs US$67.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices continue to be driven higher this week by Trump’s warnings of military action in Iran, as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draw of 2.3mb to crude, partially offset by minor builds of 0.2mb to gasoline and 0.3mb to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation fell 2.4% to 90.9% on 13.7mb/d of domestic output.
• European energy prices rose as EU natural gas storage levels fell 4.9% w/w to 43.5% full (vs 59% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 497TWh and German storage levels falling to 35% full (vs 60.1% 5-Yr average).
• Lukoil has agreed to sell the majority of its international portfolio to US private equity company Carlyle for an undisclosed amount, which excludes the assets in Kazakhstan and is subject to US Treasury approval.

Natural Gas €39.9/MWh vs €38.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $98.3/lb vs $91.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.3/t vs US$103.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.3/t vs US$466.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$233.5/t vs US$233.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$108.5/t vs US$110.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$100,272/t vs US$100,068/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,106/t vs US$23,541/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,315/t vs US$2,325/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,353/mtu vs US$1,313/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$115/lb vs US$114/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.7/lb vs US$5.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,130/t vs US$1,130/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$367.5/t vs US$367.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Company News:

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) 3,939p, Mkt Cap £36.6bn – Five year-low net cash costs beat 2025 guidance as benefits of gold by product credits feed through

• Final quarter 2025 production of 177kt of copper at a net cash cost of US$1.05/lb brings Antofagasta’s full year production to 653.7kt at a net cash cost of US$1.19/lb (2024 664.0kt at US$1.64/lb).
• The full year production falls marginally below the 660-700kt guidance although when it released Q3 production results the company indicated that it expected the full year output to be at the lower end of the range.
• Net cash cost for the full year came in below the guidance range of US$1.20-1.30/lb and 27% lower than in 2024 – representing a five-year low.
• Copper production in 2026 is expected in the range 650-700,000t with net costs between $1.15/lb and $1.35/lb.
• Los Pelambres produced ~ 45% (295kt) of Antofagasta’s copper in 2025 at a net cash cost of US$0.82/lb (2024 – 320kt at US$1.27/lb).
• Treated copper grades at Los Pelambres remained stable at 0.54% (2024 – 0.55%)
• Los Pelambres is expected to produce 340-360kt of copper in 2026 at between US$0.90-1.10/lb and the company advises that “Major maintenance is scheduled to take place in Q1 and Q3 2026, which has been factored into full year guidance”.
• The Centinela mine delivered 174kt of copper concentrate output during the year (2024 – 122kt) plus 66kt of copper cathode production (2024 – 102kt).
• Higher copper grades and throughput and improved recoveries are credited with delivering the improved copper in concentrate output.
• The company ascribes the lower copper cathode output to “a combination of lower grades, ore throughput and recoveries”.
• Net cash cost for 2025 copper production at Centinela was US$0.75/lb (2024 – US$1.60/lb) aided by higher gold production (~157koz vs ~140koz) and “stronger gold prices”.
• In 2026, Centinela is expected to produce 195-215kt of copper at a net cash cost between US$0.50-0.70/lb.
• The company says that maintenance at Centinela is expected in “Q1 and Q3 2026 … [and] … has been factored into full year guidance”.
• Antucoya delivered broadly stable copper output of 81kt (2024 – 80kt) at a cash cost of US$2.82/lb (2024 – US$2.53/lb) with the increased cost attributed to “labour agreement settlement costs and increased … [mine waste] … stripping activities”.
• Expectations for 2026 see production of 85-90kt of copper at between US$2.40-2060/lb from Antucoya where “maintenance is scheduled to take place in Q1 and Q3 2026 … [and] … has been factored into full year guidance”.
• The Zaldivar mine produced ~37kt of copper in 2025 (2024 – ~40kt) at a net cash cost of US$3.44/lb (2024 – US$3.02/lb).
• The 8% reduction in 2025 production is attributed to “a decrease in ore throughput rates and lower recoveries” at Zaldivar.
• At Zaldivar 2026 guidance is for production of 30-35kt of copper at a cost between US$3.70-3.90/lb with “maintenance … scheduled to take place in Q1 and Q2 2026, … factored into full year guidance”.
• Commenting on the results CEO, Ivan Arriagada, said that “Our continued cash cost discipline and strong by-product revenues helped us to end the year with a 27% reduction in full year net cash costs to $1.19/lb, representing a five-year low”
• He confirmed that Antofagasta’s “material growth programme remains on track and on budget … [as it continues] … to advance construction at Centinela and Los Pelambres”.
• Commenting on the wider copper market, Mr. Arriagada said that it’s “outlook remains compelling – rising demand is being driven by energy security, electrification and increasing uptake of modern technologies, while supply growth remains constrained”.

Conclusion: Antofagasta delivered better than expected copper cash costs in 2025 although copper output was marginally below guidance. Output in 2026 is expected to improve to 650-700,000t with net costs between $1.15/lb and $1.35/lb as the growth projects at Los Pelambres and the second concentrator at Centinela ramp up.

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) 0.44p, Mkt Cap £3.2m – Transformational uranium acquisition in Namibia supported by £1.7m placing

• Arkle Resources has acquired an 85% interest in Namibian Uranium, for a total consideration of £2m.
• Namibia Uranium holds four highly prospective licence packages in Namibia:
• The licences acquired lie adjacent to three major Namibian uranium deposits, including Trekkopje, Marenica and Rossing.
• All four EPLs have shown anomalous uranium in samples, with promising airborne geophysical data supporting Arkle’s belief that the assets hold significant scale potential.
• The transaction consideration comprises:
  • £375k on completion;
  • £242k payable on or before 31^st December 2026;
  • £195k payable on or before 31^st December 2027
  • 305m consideration in Arkle
• £390k of the deferred cash payable will be accelerated on publication of an inferred mineral resource of >20mlb U3O8 at a minimum grade of 120 ppm U3O8.
• In conjunction with the acquisition, Arkle has raised £1.7m through a placing at 0.4p/share.
• Arkle directors John Teeling and David Cockbill both took part in the placing with 3.4m and 3.1m shares subscribed for respectively.
• Arkle has appointed Rory Harding as interim-CEO, with Robin Birchall appointed as NED. Mark Burnett will join as Strategic Adviser.
• Cash raised will enable the following 2026 work programme (in addition to the £375k initial cash consideration to vendors)
  • Phase 1 (£375k): Focus on EPL 8995 and 8920 including HLEM surveys, airborne radiometric and magnetic surveys alongside downhole logging of historical drill holes.
  • Phase 2 (£525k) Using targets delineated in Phase 1, Arkle will look t conduct detailed mapping alongside a 4,000m RC drilling programme with additional geophysical surveys completed over EPL 8298 and EPL 7986
  • Working Captal and transaction costs: £424k.
• Uranium touched $100/lb this morning, as the market begins to price in rapidly expanding demand from utility companies and limited new projects set to come online going forward.

Conclusion: This is a transformational acquisition for Arkle , positioning them as one of the most exciting early-stage uranium exploration stories on the market. Namibia is one of our favourite jurisdictions globally, offering low-cost exploration, a stable government and highly prospective licence packages. Namibia produces over 10% of the world’s uranium, dominated by the Rossing Mine and Langer Heinrich. The route to value creation looks simple here given Arkle’s new licences lie contiguous to both active operations looking to extend their reserve base (Rossing) and undeveloped assets that would benefit from additional pounds (Trekkopje/Marenica). As a result, we suspect successful resource discovery and definition will be well rewarded by the market, offering a clear rerating pathway.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Arkle

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 32.3p, Mkt Cap £5.2m – Copper-Silver Mineralised Structures Identified, Agdz Est Project, Morocco

(Rwanda: Aterian holds an effective 100% stake in the Musasa Mining Licenses plus a 70% interest in Kinunga Mining Limited which holds the HCK licence alongside HCK Mining Company Limited which has a 30% interest.) (Botswana: Aterian also holds a 90% in Atlantis Metals which holds its licenses in Botswana). (Morocco: Aterian holds 100% on all licenses held in Morocco)

• Aterian reports encouraging surface sampling results from its Agdz Est Copper–Silver project in Morocco.
  • “The results identify multiple mineralised fault zones hosting copper and silver, significantly extending the known footprint of mineralisation within the broader 50.4 km² Agdz project”
• The results which cover ~10% of the prospect materially enhance management’s confidence in advancing Agdz towards drill evaluation.
• They show “four sub-parallel structures mapped over strike lengths of up to 0.9 km, with apparent widths of up to 7 metres, and open along strike.“
  • “Mineralised zones are spaced 300 to 400m apart, and commonly covered with a thin soil and rock float.“
  • “Encouraging copper and silver grades returned from early-stage surface sampling, including: 1.39 % Cu from a 2 m wide breccia zone“
    • 0.51 % Cu with 7 g/t Ag from a 3 x 2 m outcrop of silicified granite
    • 2.97 % Cu with 51 g/t Ag from float sample
    • 1.34 % Cu with 31 g/t Ag from a fractured zone of 4 m apparent width within granite
• Machine learning ‘AI’ partnership
• The data will be fed into the Aterian / Lithosquare joint venture for interpretation and potential to identify additional mineralised structures across the permit.
• The Aterian team will follow up with ground geophysics and trenching to define continuity, expand scale, and prioritise high-quality drill targets.
• The team believe Agdz has the potential to develop into a substantial copper–silver system.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 10.1p, Mkt Cap £77m – Quarterly report

• Atlantic Lithium report progress through the last quarter as they await ratification of a revised version of the mining lease by the Ghana Government.
• The revised mining lease has been referred to a select committee as part of the ratification process.
• Atlantic recently reported the discovery and identification of spodumene in pegmatite on its Rubino licence in the Ivory Coast.
• Rubio results include “pronounced lithium-in-soil anomalies, extending over several kilometres, across both licences.”
• Management recently agreed and with Long State Investments Ltd to undertaking a placement to raise £2m through the placement of 19,417,475 shares.
• This follows a first placement which raised £2,005,156.
• Cash at end December was A$5.4m..
• Please see RNS for further details.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium

Endeavour Mining (EDV LN) 4,767p, Mkt Cap £11bn – Strong results support deleveraging, focus on organic growth pipeline

• African gold producer Endeavour reports results for the year ending 31^st December 2025.
• The Company produced 1.2moz over the year, up 10%yoy.
• Gold Reports AISC for the year at $1,435/oz, up 18%yoy.
• Higher AISC reflects higher royalty costs.
• Realised gold price achieved over the year of $3,244/oz.
• Net debt fell to $157m from $732m yoy.
• Company paid $288m in dividends and $85m in buybacks over the year.
• Company guides to 1.1-1.265moz production FY26 at AISC of $1,600-1,800/oz, from:
  • Houndé: 220-255koz (vs257koz 2025)
  • Ity: 285-330koz (vs 319koz)
  • Mana: 155-180koz (vs 173koz)
  • Sabodala-Massawa: 260-305koz (vs 274koz)
  • Lafigué: 170-195koz (vs 187koz)
• Higher AISC guidance reflects increased royalties and stripping-related sustaining capital and Hounde and Lafigue.
• CAPEX guided for 2026 at $500m, $270m of which is non-sustaining.
• Company expects DFS and exploitation permit approval for Assafou in 1Q26, with first gold tracking for 2H28.
• Endeavour is also pursuing an aggressive exploration programme across the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, West Tethyan Metallogenic Belt and the Guiana Shield.
• Management is targeting 12-15moz in MI&I discovered over 2026-2030.
• Company also commits to returning a minimum of $1bn to shareholders over 2026-2028.

Conclusion: Another strong year for Endeavour who have met guidance and successfully delevered their balance sheet following the construction of Lafigué and the Sabodala-Massawa BIOX plant. Focus now seems to be on bringing Assafou (329kozpa first 10 years) into production in 2028, ramping up shareholder returns, and advancing their international greenfield exploration programme.

Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) 521p, Mkt Cap £61bn – Copper production back on track following weak 1H25

• Glencore reports production results for 2025.
• Copper production fell 11%yoy to 852kt in 2025, realising $9,855/t over the year.
• Lower copper production reflects lower head grades and recoveries at Collahuasi, Antamina and Antapaccay.
• Higher production in 2H25 a result of grade uplifts at KCC, Antamina and Antapaccay.
• Cobalt production down 5% on prioritisation of copper production over cobalt in the DRC.
• Zinc production rose 7%yoy to 969.4kt on higher zinc grades at McArthur River and Antamina.
• Ferrochrome production fell 63%yoy on suspension of Boshoek and Wonderkop smelters in 2025 summer.
• Steelmaking coal production of 32.5mt and energy coal production at 98mt.
• Company guides 2026 production at:
  • Copper: 810-870kt (vs 852kt 2025)
  • Zinc: 700-740kt (vs 969kt)
  • Nickel: 70-80kt (vs 72kt)
  • Steelmaking coal: 30-34mt (vs 32.5mt)
  • Energy coal: 95-100kt (vs 98kt)
• Company expects marketing EBIT of $2.3-3.5bn over 2025.

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.96p, Mkt Cap £35m – High-grade gold identified in reverse circulation drilling at the Bill’s Luck gold mine in Zimbabwe

• Kavango Resources report results from 3,556m of RC drilling following on from previously published results from 4,158m of diamond drilling.
• Drilling shows high-grade gold intersections along the ‘Main Reef’ and also confirms the presence of an adjacent to and parallel additional ‘reef’ structure.
• Reverse Circulation drill assays:

• Hole BLRC023:

• • 28.80g/t over 1.00m from 65.00m downhole
  • 28.53g/t over 3.00m from 82.00m – inc. 25.41g/t over 1.00m and 55.16g/t over 1.00m
• Hole BLRC033:
  • 7.94g/t over 1.00m from 43.00m
  • 4.00g/t over 11.00m from 75.00m – inc. 31.34g/t over 1.00m and 2.98g/t over 1.00m
  • 1.22g/t over 9.00m from 90.00m – inc. 5.88g/t over 1.00m
• Hole BLRC016:
  • 3.89g/t over 4.00m from 79.00m – inc. 13.94g/t over 1.00m
  • 37.82g/t over 1.00m from 93.00m
• Hole BLRC028:
  • 2.11g/t over 5.00m from 79.00m – inc. 4.72g/t over 1.00m and 3.27g/t over 1.00m
• Hole BLRC032:
  • 1.64g/t over 5.00m from 97.00m inc. 6.47g/t over 1.00m
• Hole BLRC043:
  • 3.30g/t over 12.00m from 114.00m
• Hole BLRC037
  • 3.77g/t over 3.00m from 72.00m
• Hole BLRC038:
  • 7.13g/t over 3.00m from 64.00m
• Hole BLRC031:
  • 0.92g/t over 6.00m from 127.00m – inc. 2.59g/t over 1.00m and 1.21g/t over 1.00m
• There is some evidence of a ‘nugget’ effect which will cause the MRE competent person to apply a top cut to the grade in the resource.
• Because the mine is already in operation the team should be able to reconcile gold output with production grades and the MRE ‘Mineral Resource Estimate’ (Assays)
• Work is being done to JORC standards in preparation for the MRE.
• Drilling shows the mineralised system continues at depth and along strike, beyond the extent of current development and confirming the presence of multiple mineralised reefs.
• Kavango expects to define the MRE for Bill’s Luck in the near future.

Conclusion:  These are another decent set of assays from the Bill’s Luck mining area.

The presence of an adjacent to and parallel additional ‘reef’ structure is very good news and we believe more of the parallel structures will be identified in the area.

It might take a bit of time to drill but forward planning generally pays well when planning new mine development.

Gold production could increase to ~15,000-30,000oz pa on a two shift, five day a week production cycle at 500-1,000tpd assuming 2.55g/t and a 90% recovery rate.

*The analyst holds shares in Kavango Resources and has visited the Bill’s Luck mine site

First Development Resources (FDR LN) 3p, Mkt Cap £4m – Exploration geophysics at the Selta project NT, Australia

• First Development Resources reports the completion of airborne magnetic and radiometric surveys over its Selta gold exploration project in the Northern Territory, Australia.
• Data is being processed to enhance the exploration team’s “understanding of subsurface geology, structures, and alteration patterns for drill targeting gold mineralisation associated with anomalous surface geochemical and historical shallow drilling results”.
• The announcement explains that “detailed desktop studies … [have] … identified the Lander West regional gold target area as a priority focus within the broader Selta Project”.
• The geophysical data “is already informing key areas for follow-up exploration planning, including the design and prioritisation of future AC and RC drilling programmes at Lander West”.
• CEO, Tristan Pottas, said that the “survey at Lander West represents a major step forward and it has materially improved our understanding of the subsurface geology and structural controls on mineralisation”.

Galan Lithium (GLN AU) A$0.41, Mkt Cap A$472m – A$40m raise for Phase 1 expansion

• The Company is raising A$40m to support 30% expansion of Phase 1 Hombre Muerto West, Argentina.
• A$0.41 issue price suggesting a 13% discount to the last close and 2% premium to 5d VWAP.
• Proceeds to be used to grow production from 4ktpa to 5.2ktpa LCE at HMW, fund exploration in Australia and working capital.
• Phase 1 development works are ongoing.
• First lithium chloride concentrate production from accumulated inventory of ~9.5kt LCE contained in evaporation ponds reiterated for 1H26.

Ioneer (INR AU) SUSPENDED – Pending equity raise

• Trading in shares was temporarily suspended pending an equity raise.
• The Company is developing the Rhyolite Ridge Lithium Boron Project in Nevada.
• Rhyolite Ridge is a clay hosted lithium project hosting 4.1mt LCE MRE and 2.0mt LCE in reserves and atest economic highlights including:

• • Throughput LOM 3.2mtpa
  • Processed grades 0.78% Li2CO3 and 3.04 H3BO3
  • Recoveries 81.6% lithium and 65.9% boric acid
  • LCE LOM production 19.3ktpa
  • Boric Acid LOM production 68ktpa
  • AISC (net of boric acid credits) US$7,165/LCE
  • Development Capex US$1.7B
  • NPV8 AT US$1.9B
  • IRR AT 16.8%
  • Pricing LOM average US$23,012/t LHM and $1,368/t boric acid

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.50p, Mkt Cap £97m – Board changes

• Steven Zaninovich will revert to being a Non Executive Director of the Company.
• Steve previously served as Operations Director.
• Steve remains Director of the operating Company, Kodal Mining UK (KMUK), and will remain closely involved with the Bougouni Lithium Mine.
• He will continue to advise the Company on operations and expansion.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Kodal

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 2.5p, Mkt Cap £62m – Improved geological modelling at Redmoor should enhance the forthcoming MRE

• Following yesterday’s announcement of its latest drilling results from the 2025 drilling at its Redmoor tungsten/tin/copper project in Cornwall, Strategic Minerals has disclosed insights into the progress of its modelling and its approach to the forthcoming revised mineral resource estimate (MRE).
• The company also confirms that results so far from its 2025 drilling “confirm good continuity of high-grade tungsten, tin, and copper mineralised structures within the SVS, … [Sheeted Vein System which hosts the majority of the 2019 ‘Inferred’ resource] … both along strike and vertically through the resource”.
• Results also “support the reproducibility of historical drilling results from 30 holes drilled by Southwest Minerals (“SWM”) between 1979 and 1982 … [and hence supports their inclusion in] … the forthcoming MRE”.
• Dennis Rowland, Managing Director of Strategic Minerals’ operating company, Cornwall Resources, said that validation of the earlier drilling “has increased confidence in the inclusion of the data from the 1980s SWM drillholes, providing a significant increase in available data for the MRE update as well as time and cost savings for the planned infill drilling”.
• He also said that the results “to date from CRD033-036 have highlighted the high-grade nature of the Redmoor SVS deposit and the strong continuity of structure and grade within the deposit. These results, alongside the identification of distinct high-grade tungsten and tin domains, have resulted in increased modelling confidence and the new and improved deposit model
• Today’s announcement explains that geological modelling by Snowden Optiro at a more detailed level than previously “separates the high-grade zones into distinct high-grade tungsten-dominant and high-grade tin-dominant domains, providing improved geological resolution and potentially improved modelling outcomes” ahead of the new resource estimate.
• This work shows a zonation of the mineralisation with tungsten dominant at depth and towards the east closer to the margin of the underlying granite and the higher-grade tin mineralisation more developed at shallower depths towards the west further from the granite.
• The zonation of mineralisation around granites is a well-established geological model in Cornwall and elsewhere so, although not too surprising in this case, it is encouraging that evidence is amassing to validate it at Redmoor.
• In our opinion, improved understanding of the geological framework of the mineralisation should be beneficial to the development of a robust MRE for the Redmoor project.
• The announcement also confirms that “drilling has intersected additional high-grade mineralisation outside the currently modelled SVS domains … [with hole CRD-036 intersecting] … approximately 30 metres of mineralisation beyond the revised SVS interpretation, which, subject to further drilling and modelling, may represent potential extensions to high-grade mineralised zones”.
• Results from a further 5 holes of the 2025 drilling campaign are awaited to “feed into model updates ahead of the Q1 2026 MRE”.
• Mark Burnett, Executive Director of Strategic Minerals said that the “inclusion of data from 30 historical drillholes … have provided the possibility for significant time and cost savings as we accelerate towards another phase of drilling operations at Redmoor”.
• Earlier this month, Strategic Minerals raised £4m to fund the 2026 drilling campaign and progress the pre-feasibility work for Redmoor.
• Mr. Burnett also confirmed that drilling three holes to validate the SWM drilling “has allowed for the inclusion of data from 30 historical drillholes to the model”.

Conclusion: Improved understanding of the relationship between the tungsten enhanced mineralisation and the more tin-dominant mineralisation at Redmoor should improve the rigour of the forthcoming MRE revision which is expected later this quarter. We look forward to the revised estimate.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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