Gold jumps again amid Greenland escalation fall-out and Treasury sell-off
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls: – SP Angel ranked No1 for Precious Metals in the 2025
Alphamin Resources* (AFM CN) – Record tin production for 2025, security risks rise again
BHP (BHP LN) – Increased full year copper production guidance building on strong H1 plus cost revision for Jansen Potash project
Capital Limited (CAPD LN) – Revenue at top end of guidance as Reko Diq ramps up
Galileo Resources (GLR LN) – Botswana drilling results
IAMGOLD (IAG US) – Production meets guidance as focus on Côté expansion
29Metals (29M AU) SUSPENDED – A$150m equity raise following seismic events
Gold ($4,732/oz) jumps again amid Greenland escalation fall-out and Treasury sell-off
- Gold prices have climbed another 1.1% this morning, moving past yeserday’s record highs to hit $4,739/oz at 9:11am this morning
Silver rose to $95.9/oz at 9:30am GMT outpacing gold
- Unconfirmed rumours on social media of short derivative positions at US banks may be encouraging buyers of silver ETFs
- One report suggests the market may be unable to deliver sufficient physical silver to close out these derivate positions
- The safe haven bid continues, with the Nasdaq set to open 2% lower this morning and the VIX up 7.7% pre-market.
- US Treasuries are selling off across the curve, with the 10 year yield rising to 4.29%, and the 30 year yield climbing to 4.93%, both nearing July highs.
- Traders are shunning US government debt in favour of gold as a haven position, as Trump continues to erode US relations with key European allies.
- Sustained tensions between US and China, escalated following the arrest of Maduro, continue to provide a major tailwind to gold prices.
- The dollar rally proved short-lived as Trump’s tariff threat on EU members has triggered a c.1% in the dollar index.
- Focus for gold is also on Trump’s continued attack on Federal Reserve independence.
- Former front-runner for Powell’s replacement, Hassett, has been removed from the race, with Kevin Warsh and Rick Reider now leading the race.
- There is concern of Trump electing an overly dovish loyalist to the Fed Chair, further reducing Fed independence in the eyes of the market.
Copper US$12,937/t vs US$12,894/t previous
- Another 8,875t of copper landed in LME warehouses today lifting the total to 156,300t
Tin prices rebound to US$50,300/t
- The LME saw another 520t of tin delivered into its warehouses today raising the total to 6,960t or 1.86% of total forecast demand of 375,000t for 2025 according to SMM.
- Myanmar – political instability and technical mine issues are holding back output. The large Man Maw mine is though to remain offline.
- DRC – has ironically been a consistent supplier despite the near proximity of the M23 rebels. Alphamin posted record production within guidance today.
- Indonesia – small-scale tin mines and smelters coming under state control as part of a clean-up operation
- By-product tin from other mining lends some stability but is relatively constrained
- Tight supply is drawing metal into the LME with prices reaching new highs
What if Trump rally does change the world
- 2026 kicked off with the brazen abduction of Maduro from Venezuela marking a new determination by the US to counter its adversaries
- Venezuela – new US friendly president. No more support for Russia or China
- Cuba – Lack of oil from Venezuela may prompt another regime change
- Iran – potential for some form of regime change if the authorities continue to kill protestors. Much will depend on support for the Ayatollah from rural communities.
- Publication of videos on social media of the children of Iranian elite flaunting their wealth may have led to the shutdown of the internet in Iran
- Greenland – a source with much experience in Greenland sees the US occupation of Greenland as a done deal
- Yemen – Saudi Arabia acted decisively to destroy military equipment going into Yemen
- Lebanon – Israel continues to root out Hezbollah arms caches
- Gaza – a new peace arrangement may be on the cards
- Syria – ceasefire with Kurdish-led SDF is under duress despite Trump’s call to Sharaa
- Ukraine – continues to occupy Russia reducing its capacity to cause trouble elsewhere.
Trump is enacting US Republican policy. While Trump’s rhetoric might border on the absurd the US and Israel appear to be having a good go at changing the world.
Once the proxy wars are countered, Russia should become less disruptive, and China should have less nations to sell weapons to.
China Lunar New Year – Tue, 17 Feb 2026
- All employees in China will be entitled to a total of 13 days off, when adjusted for weekends and additional weekend work days.
- The Spring Festival holiday will last nine days, making it the longest in history
- Labor Day holiday (1st May) will last five days
- National Day holiday ( 1st Octobert) will last seven days.
IG TV – Copper, Silver and the New Commodities Cycle | Commodity Markets Weekly: https://youtu.be/mdU5EEjc3Z8?si=BjTihCKKoeKlYHYn
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.17% | at | 49,359 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.11% | at | 52,991 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.29% | at | 26,488 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.01% | at | 4,114 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +6.0 | at | 4.28 |
Currencies
US$1.1697/eur vs 1.1622/eur previous. Yen 158.15/$ vs 158.10/$. SAr 16.408/$ vs 16.449/$. $1.348/gbp vs $1.340/gbp. 0.674/aud vs 0.670/aud. CNY 6.961/$ vs 6.964/$.
Dollar Index 98.66 vs 99.23 previous.
Economics
US – President Trump could announce his pick for the next Fed Chair as soon as next week, US treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
- “We have four fantastic candidates — it will be up to the president, and I would imagine that he will have an announcement maybe as early as next week,” Bessent said
China – The government unveiled a series of incentives to help investment and consumption including a CNY500B (~$70B) loan guarantee facility.
- The programme will last for two years and be available to small and medium sized companies for eligible activities.
- The facility will incur a 1.5pp subsidy applicable to loans of up to CNY50m.
Prime rates held unchanged for the 8th consecutive month, in line with consensus.
- The initiative was announced a day after official GDP data showed the economy hitting targeted 5%, albeit, growth followed a two-speed pattern – strong exports and weak consumption.
- Monetary authorities have been reluctant to step up policy easing, although, many argue that more rate/reserve requirement ratio cuts are coming amid slowing growth momentum and weak inflation.
- Last time PBOC cut RRR and the benchmark rate was in 1H25 that currently stand at 9.0% and 1.4% (7d reverse repo), respectively.
- 1y Prime Rate (Act / Prev / Est): 3.0 / 3.0 / 3.0
- 5y Prime Rate (Act / Prev / Est): 35 / 3.5 / 3.5
France – President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on French wines and champagne after President Macron was hesitant to join the so-called Board of Peace.
- “I’ll put a 200% tariff on his wines and champagnes and he’ll join,” Trump commented.
- The Board of Peace, initially setup to oversee the rebuilding of Gaza, is increasingly morphs into a vehicle to deal with other conflicts.
- Trump is planned to act as inaugural chairman and hold authority over membership decisions.
- Countries that want a permanent spot are asked to contribute at least US$1B, Bloomberg writes.
- President Trump wants the full constitution and remit of the Board signed in Davos on Thursday.
- Earlier, Trump invited Putin and Lukashenko to join the Board.
UK – Firms cut jobs at the fastest pace since 2020 in December with unemployment rate holding at the highest in four years during three months through November.
- December labour number come the month after Chancellor announced a tax raising budget.
- Wages growth has also been slowing down with private sector pay increase at its lowest since 2020.
- Inflation, meanwhile, has been stubbornly elevated with both headline and core measures at 3.2% in November.
- Markets are not expecting a cut before June this year.
- Unemployment Rate (Nov / Oct / Est): 5.1% / 5.1% / 5.1%
- Job Change (Dec / Nov / Est): -43k / -33k (revised from -38k) / -20k
- Av Weekly Earnings (%yoy, Nov / Oct / Est): 4.7% / 4.8% (revised from 4.7%) / 4.6%
- Private Earnings ex Bonus (%yoy, Nov / Oct / Est): 3.6% / 3.9% / 3.7%
Japan – 40y bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time ahead of snap elections that could hand PM Sanae Takaichi a mandate to step up stimulus.
- Yields have been under pressure since the PM announced a $135bn fiscal spending plan last November.
- Additionally, Takaichi confirmed yesterday the administration’s intention to pause 8% sales tax on foods for two years.
Greenland – Denmark sent more troops to Greenland late on Monday as President Trump did not rule out force to take control of the region.
Mali – The government of Niger is revoking licences of tanker drivers who refuse to drive tankers to Mali and run the JNIM jihadist blockade (BBC)
- Niger has revoked the licences of dozens of transport operators and drivers for refusing to deliver fuel to neighbouring Mali where they face possible attacks by jihadists.
- The al-Qaeda affiliate imposed a fuel blockade on Mali in September with attacks on petrol tankers on major highways.
- Mali depends on fuel imports and signed a deal with Niger in July to supply 85m ltrs of fuel over six months into the northern desert area, where various militant groups operate.
- Niger is an oil-producing country and a major ally of Mali – both run by military juntas which face jihadist violence.
- The fuel convoys from Niger making the journey crossing a route of 1,400km have faced jihadist attacks even under military escort.
- Additional fuel shipments from Niger were expected in the following months, but plans were disrupted after drivers and transport operators refused to make the deliveries.
- This has prompted Niger’s transport ministry to revoke the licences of 14 transport operators and 19 drivers for refusing to transport the fuel.
- Militant group JNIM ‘Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin’ has imposed the blockade broadening its years-long insurgency to include economic warfare.
- JNIM’s fighters kidnap drivers and burn lorries causing schools, universities and other public services to close across Mali.
- Large parts of the country are reported to remain outside government control.
- EUCAP Sahel Mali Council is extending its mandate till end January and will be able to facilitate the deployment of the internal security forces to the South and centre of Mali.
- EUCAP Sahel Mali is an EU civilian mission based in Bamako which seeks to provide assistance and advice to the Malian security forces for security reform in close coordination with the EU and UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission.
- Three other Common Security and Defence Policy missions are operating in the region as an integral part of EU’s integrated approach to security and development in the Sahel.
- EUTM Mali was established in view of strengthening the capabilities of the Malian Armed Forces by providing military advice, training, and mentoring, while EUCAP Sahel Niger seeks to support the fight against organised crime and terrorism in Niger. More recently, the Council adopted a decision to set up a Military Partnership Mission to support Niger in its fight against terrorist armed groups (EUMPM Niger)..
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,720/oz vs US$4,670/oz previous
Gold ETFs 99.9moz vs 99.9moz previous
Platinum US$2,392/oz vs US$2,357/oz previous
Palladium US$1,847/oz vs US$1,800/oz previous
Silver US$94.6/oz vs US$93.2/oz previous
Silver ETFs 846.8moz vs 846.7moz previous
Rhodium US$10,050/oz vs US$10,100/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$12,937/t vs US$12,894/t previous
Aluminium US$3,149/t vs US$3,140/t previous
Nickel US$18,090/t vs US$17,935/t previous
Zinc US$3,221/t vs US$3,212/t previous
Lead US$2,048/t vs US$2,052/t previous
Tin US$50,300/t vs US$48,100/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$63.6/bbl vs US$63.8/bbl previous
- Northern hemisphere energy prices have surged in the past 24 hours as weather forecasts have worsened for an Arctic blast that is set to bring freezing temperatures to Europe, Asia and the US from late January into early February.
- Grupo Carso has agreed to pay a total of $600m (including $330m debt) to acquire Lukoil’s 50% operated interest in offshore Mexico Block 4, which increase its interest to 100% Ichalkil and Pokoch fields holding an estimated 564mboe.
Natural Gas €36.1/MWh vs €33.5/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $85.0/lb vs $85.0/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.1/t vs US$104.6/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.3/t vs US$466.3/t
HCC FOB Australia US$234.5/t vs US$233.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$111.4/t vs US$111.4/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$96,256/t vs US$96,857/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,406/t vs US$22,042/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,050/t vs US$2,050/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,188/mtu vs US$1,158/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$109/lb vs US$108/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.5/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$262/t vs US$262/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,128/t vs US$1,127/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg
EV and Battery News:
Germany to introduce new €3bn subsidy programme for EVs
- The German government has launched a new €3bn EV subsidy programme to boost EV sales after they slumped following the end of previous incentives.
- Subsidies will range from €1,500 to €6,000 per vehicle, with payments aimed mainly at low- and middle-income buyers.
- The scheme is expected to support the purchase of around 800,000 vehicles between its launch and 2029.
- No origin-based restrictions are attached, making Chinese brands eligible alongside domestic and other international automakers.
- The policy contrasts with other European markets, like the UK and France, where new EV incentives impose stricter criteria that effectively limit Chinese-made models from qualifying.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -2.0% | 0.4% | Freeport-McMoRan | -2.1% | 3.9% |
| Rio Tinto | -2.0% | 0.6% | Vale | -0.4% | 4.6% |
| Glencore | -0.5% | 1.8% | Newmont Mining | -0.1% | 4.7% |
| Anglo American | -0.8% | 0.1% | Fortescue | -0.6% | -1.4% |
| Antofagasta | -0.8% | 1.5% | Teck Resources | 0.0% | 0.2% |
Company News:
Alphamin Resources* (AFM CN) C$1.33, Mkt Cap C$1.7bn – Record tin production for 2025, security risks rise again
- Alphamin, who operate the Bisie tin mine in the DRC, report production and exploration results alongside management changes.
- Company processed 752kt of ore over the period at 3.3% Sn, producing 18,576t, impacted by the pause in production on security concerns.
- EBITDA reported at $341m, up 25%yoy from 2024, from average tin prices of $34,388/t, up 13%yoy.
- AISC reported at $16,381/t, up 7%yoy.
- Company reports $56m in cash as of 31st December, following $123m of dividend payments over the year and debt reduction and servicing of $45m.
- Company guides for 20kt of tin production in 2026.
- Exploration has been impacted by contractor operational issues and geological challenges, with three holes completed since 3Q25 returning no visible mineralisation.
- Management has introduced direction drilling to boost accuracy at depth, with a second Mpama North hole deflected and nearing its target.
- Alphamin is exploring using downhole EM surveys to boost drilling accuracy.
- Management also comments on increased security risks, with a rise in events in North Kivu, 200km away from Bisie.
- Bisie continues to operate but management warns of the current elevated operating risk profile.
- CEO Martiz Smith will retire on 1st March, with the CFO Eoin O’Driscoll set to take his position.
- Ex-Kamoa Copper JP van Staden will take the CFO role at the same time.
*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Alphamin
BHP (BHP LN) 2,366p, Mkt Cap £123bn – Increased full year copper production guidance building on strong H1 plus cost revision for Jansen Potash project
- Reporting on operations for the six months to 31st December BHP describes a strong quarter for its copper and iron-ore businesses prompting the company to increase its full FY copper production guidance.
- H1 copper production of 984kt prompts the increased guidance to 1.9-2.0mt for the year compared to the previous range of 1.8-2.0mt.
- The increased copper guidance stems from increased expectations for the Escondida mine, which “achieved record concentrator throughput” and where guidance increases from 1.15-1.25mt to the range 1.2-1.275mt and for the Antamina mine which raises the previous 120-140kt to 140-150kt reflecting planned grade increases.
- BHP’s South Australian copper operations (Olympic Dam and Carapateena) increased H1 production by 2% to ~148kt with the full year guidance maintained in the range 310-340kt.
- The WA iron-ore operations delivered “record first half production and shipments” of ~130mt and is maintaining full-year production guidance at 251-262mt “ahead of the typically wet third quarter”.
- Today’s announcement confirms that BHP and Rio Tinto have agreed “to explore opportunities to mine up to 200 Mt of iron ore at BHP’s Yandi and Rio Tinto’s neighbouring Yandicoogina iron ore operations in the Pilbara … [building] … on a history of successful Rio Tinto and BHP collaboration across these operations to enable mining up to the shared tenure boundary”.
- At Samarco iron-ore production “increased … [by 48% to 4mt] … as a result of stronger performance at the second concentrator following ramp up, and higher feed grades and recoveries” with guidance maintained at 7-7.5mt with expectations of achieving the upper half of the range.
- Production of steelmaking coal rose 2% to 9.2mt with guidance maintained at 18-20mt.
- The company explains that underground production rates at Broadmeadow “were strong in Q1 … [but ground conditions deteriorated] … in Q2 materially … [impacting] … operations and … [leading to] … the deferral of the planned longwall move from Q2 to Q3 FY26”.
- Also in the Groups steelmaking coal operations, “Saraji South transitioned into care and maintenance in Q2 in response to market conditions and the unsustainable impact of the Queensland Government’s coal royalties on business returns”.
- The New South Wales Energy Coal business is maintaining its full year guidance of 14-16mt following strong H1 “operational performance due to increased bypass coal as well as mining lower strip ratio areas”.
- “Minerals exploration and evaluation expenditure was US$193 m for HY26 (HY25: US$199 m)”.
- In a separate announcement today, BHP updates its cost estimate for the Jansen potash project in Canada where production is expected in mid-2027.
- The project cost increases to US$8.4bn from the “previously estimated range of US$7.0 billion to US$7.4 billion … announced in July 2025 and the US$5.7 billion initial estimate of the investment cost for Jansen Stage 1 when the project was approved in August 2021”.
- BHP explains that the “majority of the cost increase since the estimated range announced in July 2025 is from construction hours and quantities of materials that were not included in previous execution cost estimates … [but which] … were identified following the comprehensive review of Jansen Stage 1 budget and schedule”.
- Confirming that the project is 75% complete BHP confirms that it expects “Jansen Stage 1 to deliver approximately 4.15 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of production … [generating] … an updated internal rate of return of 7.9% to 9.1% and an updated expected payback period of 11 to 15 years from first production” at consensus prices.
- Brandon Craig, President of BHP Americas described Jansen as “an important pillar in BHP’s long-term growth strategy and is a long-life, low cost expandable asset … [which establishes] … BHP as a leading player in the global potash industry”.
- BHP confirms that, incorporating the “project execution improvements identified in the review of the investment cost and schedule estimates for Jansen Stage 1” it is continuing with Phase 2 of the Jansen project and in the long term it “has the potential for two additional expansions to reach an ultimate production capacity of 16 to 17 Mtpa”.
Conclusion: BHP is increasing its full year copper production guidance following strong H1 performance at Escondida and Antamina. The company also reports increased costs for Phase 1 of its Jansen potash project where production is expected to start in mid-2027.
Capital Limited (CAPD LN) 123p, Mkt Cap £277m – Revenue at top end of guidance as Reko Diq ramps up
- Capital reports 4Q25 results.
- The Company reports revenue of $92.7m, down 1.3%yoy and up 9.2%yoy.
- Drilling revenue accounted for $60.2m, down 7.5%, whilst mining revenue rose 40%qoq to $11m.
- MSALABS revenue rose 2.9% to $21.6m , up 74%yoy.
- FY25 revenue fell 0.6% vs 2024 at $346m, in line with revised guidance of $335-350m.
- Total rig count increased to 137 over the quarter from 134 on 30th September.
- Average monthly revenue per rig of $187k, down 5.1% on 4Q24.
- Q4 drilling productivity hit by protests in Tanzania.
- New contract wins reported at Nevada Gold Mines Alpha Centauri’s Minkebe project in Gabon and Santa Fe’s Satama project in Cote d’Ivoire.
- TSF fleet mobilised on-site for Reko Diq mining contract.
- Strong MSALABS revenue a result of increased exploration activity, with four new laboratories built in FY25.
- Management focused on improving financial performance at MSALABS and achieving run-rate at Reko Diq, alongside contract execution across drilling business.
Galileo Resources (GLR LN) 0.9p, Mkt Cap £12m – Botswana drilling results
- Galileo Resources confirms copper mineralisation within its PL253 exploration licence in the northwestern part of the Kalahari Copper Belt, Botswana.
- Results from hole reverse circulation drill hole QTRC-014, which completes a four-hole programme testing a soil anomaly, shows copper mineralisation within the D’Kar Formation beneath sand cover.
- The company says that “Copper enhancement occurs between 66m and 115m depth, with peak interval of 5m @ 0.34% Cu from 79m to 84m, including 1m @ 0.84% Cu”.
- Today’s announcement also confirms the Botswana Mines Department’s “renewal of PL253/2018 for a further two years to end 2027”.
- Chairman, Colin Bird, described the identification of copper mineralisation over an extensive interval in our first reconnaissance drilling programme testing a soil target as “very encouraging”.
- Galileo Resources “will now model geological/geophysical/geochemical data for the prospect with a view to planning a follow-up drilling programme”.
Conclusion: Planning a follow-up drilling programme following identification of copper mineralisation in the expected geological setting in the Kalahari Copper Belt’s D’Kar Formation during an initial four-hole RC drilling programme.
IAMGOLD (IAG US) $17.2, Mkt Cap $10bn – Production meets guidance as focus on Côté expansion
- Canadian gold producer IAMGOLD reports 2025 production results.
- The Company produced 766koz over the year, in line with 735-820koz guidance and up on 2024 levels of 667koz.
- Cote production came at top end of guidance (250-280koz) at 280koz .
- Westwood production missed guidance (125-140koz) at 114koz, whilst Essakane was in mid range of guidance (360-400koz) at 372koz.
- AISC expected to be within the mid-range of guidance of $1,830-1,930/oz on higher gold royalties and currency changes at Essakane.
- 2026 guidance of:
- 720-820koz at AISC of $2,000-2,150/oz
- Cote expected to produce 270-310koz at AISC of AISC of $1,775-1,925/oz.
- Sustaining CAPEX guided at $380m, with $160m directed towards Cote for non-recurring plant and infrastructure design changes.
- Expansion CAPEX guided at $120m to accelerate the Cote expansion programme.
- Focus currently on boosting Cote efficiency, with expansion study due later this year to boost throughput via the mining of Cote and Gosselin as a single large pit based on 16moz in MRE.
29Metals (29M AU) SUSPENDED – A$150m equity raise following seismic events
- Australian copper producer 29Metals is raising A$150m via an equity raise.
- The raise is being conducted at $0.4/share, a 27% discount to the 30-day VWAP.
- Major shareholders BUMA and AustralianSuper are taking up their entitlements, whilst EMR is ‘not in a position to participate in the Equity Raising.’
- Use of proceeds guided at:
- A$90m for working capital following Xantho seismicity
- A$35m for progressing Capricorn towards restart
- A$18m for group exploration
- A$7m for transaction costs
- Company is targeting first ore from Gossan Valley by end of 2026, with recommencement of Xantho Extended mining in April 2026.
- 29Metals is also targeting commencement of Restart DFS for Capricorn Copper, as it progresses towards FID, currently targeted for 2026-end.
- Capricorn Copper holds 64.3mt at 1.8% Cu for 1.2mt Cu contained in MRE and 316kt Cu contained in Reserves.
- Management is also exploring a minority sell-down for Capricorn Copper.
- Capricorn restart focused on water level reductions following heavy 4Q25 rainfall and the need for a long term TSF solution.
- A$103m of cash held at end of 2025, with A$15m in undrawn debt.
- 2026 metal production guided at:
- 20-24kt Cu, 40-50kt Zn, 12-20koz Au and 600-800koz Ag
- This compares to 22kt Cu, 35kt Zn, 15koz Au, 746koz Ag produced in 2025.
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street
London, W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.
Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.
Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.
SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).
SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049. The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP. SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.
MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.
A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).
SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return
SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.

