SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 23rd December 2025

Gold, silver and copper hit record highs as dollar sinks on rate cut expectations and Yen strength

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – Approval for sale of Kangerluarsuk to Amaroq

Altius Minerals (ALS CN) – Acquisition of Lithium Royalty Corp for C$520m

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Drill results from Dokwe gold project in Zimbabwe

KEFI Copper and Gold* (KEFI LN) – BUY, TP (Under Review) – Tulu Kapi Project underway following ~$20m equity raise

Oscillate Plc* (SRVL LN) – Completion of geophysical surveys in Botswana

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Creditor seeks $2.2m Writ of Execution

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 18.5p – Management update

Silvercorp Metals (SVP CN) – PEA for Condor Gold Project, Ecuador

URU Metals* (URU LN) – Focus remains firmly on the Zeb Nickel Sulphide Project in interim results

Gold ($4,485/oz) hits record highs as dollar sinks on rate cut expectations

• The precious metals complex has rallied sharply into Christmas as the dollar weakens.
• Over the past week, silver is up 10%, platinum up 17%, palladium up 15% and gold up 4.2%.
• The dollar index has fallen >9% ytd, lifting metals prices across the board.
• US Treasuries have weakened, however higher yields have failed to kill the gold rally.
• Gold has also been supported by sustained Chinese central bank buying and increased ETF inflows from retail looking to chase the rally.
• We suspect gold and related precious metal momentum may be vulnerable to a dollar rally in 2026.
• However, we continue to see the longer term thematic of central bank foreign reserve diversification as a major tailwind for gold prices through the end of the decade.
• We see gold rising towards $5,000/oz next year on a continuation of Central bank buying and pressure on the US dollar.
• If the US economy improves in accordance with Trump’s economic view then the US dollar may hold firm but we still see further gains in the Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen.

Copper (US$11,978/t) poised to break through $12,000/t

• Copper hit a new all-time-highs at $11,996 yesterday as the number of lots trades eases off towards the year end.
• The move is helped by prospects of further support for the economy in China.
• Consumer buying seen for January, February and March.
• A weaker US dollar is also driving base metals higher as investors await further US rate cuts.
• A buildup of physical copper metal in the US may also squeeze local supply in China and elsewhere in the world.

Dollar index takes a bashing falling to 98.00 vs 98.54 yesterday

• Prospects for further Fed rate cuts combined with a stronger Japanese Yen is hitting the US dollar hard.
• The yen is strengthening as the Japanese finance minister claims the ministry has a free hand to take bold action against currency moves

IG TV  Commodity Corner        (17/12/25):  

(09/12/25):  

Decolonising Father Christmas

• Brighton and Hove Museums appear to have decided that Santa’s Western binary of naughty/nice is offensive and should be decolonised
• Ok we understand why some consider manholes to be misogynistic but we are struggling with how Santa rewarding good behaviour with presents is a bad thing.
• But perhaps the museum considers less-good children to be just as worthy of Santa’s generosity as all the better behaved kids.
• The museum also appears to have some other reasons for wanting to outlaw Santa but we will leave that to other publications.
• Judge for yourself: https://brightonmuseums.org.uk/discovery/history-stories/decolonising-father-christmas/

Economics

Currencies

US$1.1781/eur vs 1.1735/eur previous. Yen 156.01/$ vs 157.47/$. SAr 16.693/$ vs 16.712/$. $1.351/gbp vs $1.342/gbp. 0.669/aud vs 0.664/aud. CNY 7.029/$ vs 7.038/$.

Dollar Index 98.00 vs 98.54 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,492/oz vs US$4,409/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.8moz vs 98.4moz previous

Platinum US$2,188/oz vs US$2,061/oz previous

Palladium US$1,817/oz vs US$1,763/oz previous

Silver US$69.5/oz vs US$68.7/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,125/oz vs US$8,050/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,978/t vs US$11,920/t previous

Aluminium US$2,957/t vs US$2,956/t previous

Nickel US$15,475/t vs US$15,040/t previous

Zinc US$3,108/t vs US$3,082/t previous

Lead US$1,987/t vs US$1,977/t previous

Tin US$43,500/t vs US$42,810/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$62.1/bbl vs US$61.0/bbl previous

• The US Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has ordered work on five offshore US wind projects to be suspended on federal leases, citing “national security risks” related to their construction and operation.

Natural Gas €27.5/MWh vs €27.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $81.0/lb vs $81.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.4/t vs US$104.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$460.8/t vs US$460.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$211.5/t vs US$212.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.5/t vs US$105.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$83,944/t vs US$81,557/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$14,583/t vs US$14,280/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,240/t vs US$1,210/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$958/mtu vs US$938/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$99/lb vs US$98/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.3/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$260/t vs US$259/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,117/t vs US$1,115/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$360.0/t vs US$360.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

EV & battery news

German auto exports slump in 2025 under Trump tariffs

• German car exports to the US were down 14% in the first three quarters of 2025, making it the hardest hit German industry sector in Donald Trump’s trade war with Europe.
• The agreement between Washington and Brussels saw a 15% baseline tariff introduced in August, less than the 25% proposed by Trump, but significantly more than the existing  2.5% levy.

Company news

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.52p, Mkt cap £26m – Approval for sale of Kangerluarsuk to Amaroq

(80 Mile holds 100% of Hydrogen Valley which owns the Ferrandina biofuels plant in Italy and White Flame Energy in Greenland)

• 80 Mile Plc reports approval from the Greenland Government for the sale of the Kangerluarsuk zinc-lead-silver project to Amaroq Minerals Ltd.
• The sale gives 80 Mile:
  • US$500,000 worth of Amaroq shares (392,939)
  • US$1,500,000 in cash or shares upon the discovery of a JORC or NI 43-101 compliant resource that supports development.
• 80 Mile plans to focus on its priority projects:
  • Disko-Nuussuaq nickel-copper-cobalt project in Greenland,
  • Jameson Land Basin Project in Greenland
  • Hydrogen Valley is ramping up to meet new demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Biodiesel and Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil in Italy.
    • Ferrandina plant permitted capacity: 150,000tpa
      • 80,000 tpa biodiesel in the short term
      • 40,000 tpa of SAF longer term

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has formerly visited license in Greenland with management.

Altius Minerals (ALS CN) C$40, Mkt Cap C$1.83bn – Acquisition of Lithium Royalty Corp for C$520m

• Altius Minerals is acquiring Lithium Royalty Corp (LRC) for c.C$520m.
• Altius will pay C$9.5/LRC share, with C$173m in cash and C$347m in Altius Shares.
• LRC holds four producing royalties either currently ramping up or in expansion, within 37 wider royalties.
• LRC Portfolio:
  • 0.9% royalty over SGML’s Groto d Cirilo
  • 0.9% royalty over Tres Quebradas
  • 0.45% royalty over Mariana
  • 8% royalty over horse Creek
  • 3% royalty over Das Neves
  • 2.5% royalty Finniss
• Altius management notes that the acquisition adds a ‘significant pipeline of operating, development and evaluation stage assets’ to Altius’ business.
• Management sees this as a countercyclical, long-term investment, seeing potential for lithium deficits in 2026.
• LRC’s royalty revenue forecast at C$40-60m at spot prices by 2030.

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 1. 45p, Mkt Cap £34m – Drill results from Dokwe gold project in Zimbabwe

• Drill results from the Dokwe Gold Project in Zimbabwe show potential for resource expansion.
• Reverse Circulation drill highlights:
  • 4m @ 1.98g/t Au from 188m
  • 9m @ 1.33g/t Au from 194m
  • 11m @ 1.37g/t Au from 206m
  • 14m @ 2.17g/t Au from 220m, inc.6m @ 4.15g/t Au from 220m
• 3,317m of RC drilling has been done with 1,320 samples sent for assay with further results expected early next year.
• The company  recently agreed A$8m equity funding to progress metallurgical work for the DFS at Dokwe.
• Ariana will issue an initial 26.7m CDIs priced at A$0.30 each to raise the A$8m to Xinhai Mining Services with a potential second tranche increasing Xinhai Mining’s investment to a total A$11m. Xinhai Mining, a part of Shandong Xinhai Mining Technology & Equipment which will also provide technical services in relation to a Metallurgical Sampling and Testwork Programme for A$1 million and complete the DFS for up to A$2m to be paid in CDIs at the Issue Price.

KEFI Copper and Gold* (KEFI LN) 1.3p, Mkt Cap £128m – Tulu Kapi Project underway following ~$20m equity raise

BUY – TP (Under Review)

• The Company announced securing funding for the Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia.
• US$100m equity risk part of the $340m development cost includes:
  • $20m government equity contribution earned through project infrastructure investment (road and power)
  • $26m conditionally raised through Preference Equity (negotiations in progress to finalise documentation to be approve by project lenders)
  • $30m raised via Gold Streams (term sheet signed with one fund for $20m subject to documentation and $10m subject to DD and documentation)
  • $10m in new KEFI equity raised earlier this year
  • $20m in new KEFI equity (1,154m at 1.3p, placing price implies 10% discount to the last close) being raised now
• Additionally, the Company may secure up to $30m in non dilutive equity risk capital including:
  • $20m considered in less advanced conditional applications from local investors in the form of preference equity
  • $10m non binding term sheet signed with a second royalty fund
• Additional funds may be allocated to $15m in cost overrun reserve and $15m funding exploration and development in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia.
• Separately, the Company launched a retail offer for £1m (at 1.3p) yesterday that was well receive and raised extra £0.8m.
• The Company is expected to retain 83% effective interest in Tulu Kapi (post 5% government free carry and government 12% earn in).
• $20m new equity raised is comprised of repayment of outstanding working capital facilities in new shares (~$12m) and new equity ($8m).
• Gold Stream conditions:
  • Each $10m tranche entitled to 3% of gold produced from the TKGM mining license until 30koz recovered
  • Post 30koz, the percentage goes down to 2% for the life of mine
  • Streamer pays 20% of market gold price
• Preference Equity terms (KEFI Ethio Prefs):
  • 8y term
  • Fixed FX rate (BIRR to USD) ie redeemable at the same exchange rate as at issuance
  • 15% interest accruing for the first four years and payable in USD or BIRR at fixed at issuance FX rate
  • Exposure to gold price appreciation ie payable amount at maturity can be increased if gold price at the time is above initial levels and amount payable equal to price difference multiplied by the koz equivalent of the sum invested.

Conclusion: The Company announced the structure for the $340m Tulu Kapi Gold Project development raising ~$20m in new equity on KEFI level. New equity contributed towards $100m equity risk part of the funding, reduces overall leverage while maintaining 83% effective interest in the Project. Securing $100m in equity risk component was one of the major conditions for drawdowns under the secured $240m debt facility.

We will update our valuation for a new number of shares but we highlight that dilutive effect of new shares will be more than compensated by retaining higher interest in the Tulu Kapi Project (83% vs our assumed 70%). Additionally, we highlight our previous valuation (3.5p) used $3,300/oz long term gold prices. We reiterate BUY recommendation.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Oscillate Plc* (SRVL LN) 0.36p, Mkt Cap £1.53m – Completion of geophysical surveys in Botswana

• Oscillate, soon to be Serval Resources, provides an update on their exploration programmes in the Kalahari Copper Belt.
• Serval has completed three separate geophysics programmes, including TEM, AMT and ground Magnetic surveys on PL231/2018 and PL082/2020.
• This has covered 56.7km. with data now undergoing geophysical processing, interpretation and modelling.
• The programme is aimed at identifying the thickness of the Kalahari/Karoo cover sequences, alongside identifying the potential mineralised horizon between the Ngwako Pan and D’Kar formation contact.
• Results are due 1Q26.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oscillate/Serval

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.024p, Mkt Cap £2.54m – Creditor seeks $2.2m Writ of Execution

• Premier African Minerals provides an update on corporate affairs.
• The Company updates on the notice of demand from the Creditor seeking payment of $2.3m as announced 10^th December.
• The Creditor has now issued a Writ of Execution for Movable Property at the Zulu Project in the High Court of Zimbabwe.
• PREM believes any movable property attached ‘pursuant to the Writ may be recovered through the agreement.’

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 3.6p, Mkt Cap £93m – Management update

BUY – 18.5p

• Dale Ferguson (CTO) will be leaving the Company at the end of the year.
• His responsibilities to be shared with a team of Boris Daza (Development Manager) and Joao Nunes (Operations Readiness Manager).
• Daza has 20y of experience operating and building lithium projects, mostly in WA with Fortescue and Mineral Resources.
• Nunes has 28y of experience delivering and running mining project in Ibeira including Boliden/Somincor and Almina in Portugal.
• “As a long-term shareholder in Savannah, I will continue to follow development at the Project very closely and look forward to it playing an important and sizeable role in Europe’s lithium battery value chain in the near future,” Dale Ferguson commented.

Conclusion: Dale Ferguson played a key role in advancing the Barroso Lithium Project from an early exploration through major technical and corporate milestones leaving the Company in capable hands to progress the project to FID, funding and start of development works.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

Silvercorp Metals (SVP CN) $9, Mkt Cap $2bn – PEA for Condor Gold Project, Ecuador

• Chinese-backed silver producer Silvercorp reports a PEA for the Condor Gold Project.
• Condor holds an I&I MRE of 30.1mt at 2.49g/t AuEq for 2.4moz AuEq.
• The study envisages an underground operation feeding a CIP cyanidation circuit with gravity concentrator.
• LOM head grade of 2.15g/t Au and 14.2g/t Ag.
• The 1.8mtpa plant will also utilise selective flotation to recover silver, lead and zinc from cyanide leach residue to produce concentrates.
• Development CAPEX for the project of $292m and LOM sustaining capital of $382m.
• Total operating cost milled of $95.5/t, site operating cost at $74.5/t.
• Study sees average annual payable production of 114koz AuEq.
• AISC of $1,359/oz AuEq.
• Post-tax NPV5 of $522m and IRR of 29% at $2,600/oz Au and $31/oz Ag.
• Post-tax NPV5 of $1.5bn and IRR of 60% at $4,300/oz.

URU Metals* (URU LN) 6.85p, Mkt cap £6.6m – Focus remains firmly on the Zeb Nickel Sulphide Project in interim results

• URU’s focus remains firmly on its 73.67% interest in Zeb Nickel Corp and the Zeb Nickel project particularly due to the scarce nature of large-scale nickel sulphide discoveries.
• Interims results:
  • Admin expenses: $732k vs 358k yoy
  • Exploration costs: $61k vs $70k yoy
  • Forex loss: $127k vs $57k yoy
  • Total net loss $793k vs $404k yoy
• Following completion of airborne geophysical surveys, the Company is now working on a more focused ground-based gravity and EM programme to refine priority conductors and generate decision-ready drill targets.
• URU has advanced into the next phase of on-the-ground technical work appointing GeoFocus to do the ground gravity and frequency-domain
• EM surveys over priority targets.
• URU Metals recently gained a 30-year Mining Right over a total of ~4,704ha of the Zeb nickel project near Mokopane, South Africa.

Conclusion:  Indonesia is looking at curtailing environmentally destructive Chinese nickel laterite plants on its shores which may tighten the market and allow nickel prices to rise again.

A step up in exploration activity has raised expenses, this combined with a larger loss on foreign exchange nearly doubled the cost of running the company over the six months to end September.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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