SP Angel -Today’s Market View, Friday 12th December 2025

Gold jumps as spot prices break out following Fed meeting

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) – Maiden ore reserve for Maalino-Caigutan-Biyong project

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) – GreenX acquired 90% of Tannenberg exploration portfolio

Landore Resources (LND LN) – Suspended – Pending publication of Mineral Resource Estimate on the BAM gold project in Canada

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – BUY: 30p – Pepas MRE on track for January, encouraging drilling update from El Pantano

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 18.5p – RESource EU Action Plan to support Barroso’s pathway to production

SolGold* (SOLG LN) – Revised possible offer for SolGold by Jiangxi Copper at 28p

Gold ($4,320/oz) equities jump as spot prices break out following Fed meeting

• Gold prices jumped overnight, climbing above $4,300/oz for the first time since mid-October.
• The US dollar index slipped further to 98.36 from 99.52 a month ago driven lower by the Fed rate cut.
• Gold mining equities are on a tear, with the GDX ETF up 3.5% yesterday and 2% pre-market.
• Investors have added another ~400,000ozs to ETF inflows overnight lifting gold out of its range
• BRIC central banks and Tether are also likely buyers following the Fed rate cut on Wednesday night
• The BIS ‘Bank for International Settlements’ warned that US equities and gold are showing bubble signs with retain demand driving prices.
• It takes more than just retail demand to drive a market like gold, with the gain in ETF holdings probably fuelled by institutional funds.
• China also added to their gold holdings for the 13^th straight month, but on lower volumes than seen earlier this year.
• Gold appears to be regained momentum led by a strong demand and price rises in silver.
• Low oil prices mean gold mining margins are rising fast.
• The average AISC cost for gold production is ~US$1,600/oz giving a margin of US$2,720/oz raising profits for virtually all gold miners.

Global EV sales growth slows significantly in November

• Global EV growth slowed sharply in November, rising only about 6% yoy, the slowest pace since February 2024.
• China’s EV market plateaued, with sales up only 3%, marking its weakest growth in nearly a year.
• North America also saw a steep drop, around 42%, driven by the end of US federal EV tax credits, putting the region on track for its first annual EV sales decline since 2019.
• Europe continued to see solid growth, up 36%, thanks to various government incentives across the continent.
• The slowdown highlights how policy shifts and weaker subsidies are cooling EV adoption, raising concerns among climate advocates about meeting decarbonisation goals.

IG TV Commodity Corner (09/12/25):  

     (02/12/25):  

Currencies

US$1.1738/eur vs 1.1705/eur previous. Yen 155.67/$ vs 155.89/$. SAr 16.839/$ vs 16.907/$. $1.338/gbp vs $1.338/gbp. 0.667/aud vs 0.665/aud. CNY 7.055/$ vs 7.058/$

Dollar Index 98.36 vs 98.65 previous

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,308/oz vs US$4,215/oz previous

Gold ETFs 98.2moz vs 97.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,707/oz vs US$1,672/oz previous

Palladium US$1,520/oz vs US$1,476/oz previous

Silver US$63.8/oz vs US$62.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,975/oz vs US$7,975/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$11,857/t vs US$11,626/t previous

Aluminium US$2,888/t vs US$2,874/t previous

Nickel US$14,625/t vs US$14,600/t previous

Zinc US$3,202/t vs US$3,090/t previous

Lead US$1,982/t vs US$1,989/t previous

Tin US$42,050/t vs US$40,260/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$61.6/bbl vs US$61.6/bbl previous

• OPEC’s December oil report made only minor changes to its forecasts for global oil demand growth of 1.3mb/d in 2025 and 1.4mb/d in 2026, far in excess of the EIA & IEA data, with non-OPEC supply growth up 50kb/d m/m to 1mb/d this year and 0.6mb/d next year.
• US Henry Hub prices tumbled further on forecasts for warmer weather and despite the EIA reporting a large 177bcf w/w draw to 3,746bcf (-170bcf expected) and storage inventories now 0.7% below last year’s level and 2.8% above the five-year average.

Natural Gas €27.1/MWh vs €26.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $77.8/lb vs $77.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$102.0/t vs US$101.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$457.3/t vs US$456.7/t

HCC FOB Australia US$207.3/t vs US$206.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.8/t vs US$108.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$52,790/t vs US$52,790/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$82,068/t vs US$82,031/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$13,253/t vs US$13,176/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,125/t vs US$1,125/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$778/mtu vs US$773/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$97/lb vs US$97/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.2/kg vs US$24.2/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$262/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,113/t vs US$1,112/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

 Company news

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) 0.51p, Mkt Cap £21m – Maiden ore reserve for Maalino-Caigutan-Biyong project

• Celisus reports a maiden JORC Ore Reserve for the MCB project in the Philippines.
• The report precedes the ongoing Feasibility Study and FEED programme.
• MCB envisages an underground, sub-level open stoping and dry-stack tailings operation.
• MCB Reserve:
  • 130.3mt at 0.66% Cu, 0.21g/t Au for 856.5kt Cu and 891koz Au.
• Celsius holds a 40% working interest in MCB.
• Company is in the ‘final stages of completing an updated Feasibility Study.’
• Economic Input Parameters:
  • 95% Cu recovery and 77% Au recovery
  • 0.46% CuEq cut-off grade
  • $18.8/t mining cost, $14.9/t milling cost and $2.88/t G&A
• Celsius envisages a 2.6mtpa processing facility producing a copper concentrate.

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) 42.8p, Mkt cap £237m – GreenX acquired 90% of Tannenberg exploration portfolio

• GreenX Metals report the acquisition of 90% of Tannenberg exploration portfolio from Group 11.
• Group 11 has expanded the license areas within the portfolio seven-fold to ~1,900sqkm covering a significant portion of the Mid-European Crystalline Zone which extends into Poland where KGHM operates a number of substantial copper mines.
• Anglo American also holds ground within the same trend as well as licenses to the north-east and directly to the south of Tannenberg.
• Recent work validating assays from drilling in the 1980s show:
  • Hole 23: 1.5 m at 2.7% copper and 55 g/t silver.
  • Hole 45: 2.4 m at 1.4% copper and 18 g/t silver.
  • Hole 25: 1.0 m at 2.0% copper and 41 g/t silver.
  • Hole 17: 1.3 m at 1.2% copper and 24 g/t silver.
  • Hole 15: 3.7 m at 1.2% copper and 17 g/t silver.
  • Hole 38: 1.8 m at 0.7% copper and 15 g/t silver.
• The assays show 1.0‑3.7m widths which are broader than the maximum thickness used in the 1940 Historical Estimate.

Conclusion: Tannenberg shows significant potential for future mine planning in our view.

*The analyst has previously visited the KGHM’s Lubin copper mine. An SP Angel analyst has visited Tannenberg in Germany.

Landore Resources (LND LN) – Suspended – Pending publication of Mineral Resource Estimate on the BAM gold project in Canada

• Landore shares have been temporarily suspended pending the publication of a Mineral Resource Estimate on the BAM gold project in Canada.
• Drilling results over the summer from 14 holes over 3,549m at the BAM gold project, Junior Lake, Ontario, Canada showed:
  • 1.03m grading 10.6g/t gold from a depth of 300.46m in hole 0425-856
  • including 0.96m grading 8.39g/t gold from 212.31m; and
  • 1m grading 9.97g/t gold from 99.42m depth

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 20p, Mkt Cap £74m – Pepas MRE on track for January, encouraging drilling update from El Pantano

BUY: 30p

• Orosur reports an update from its MRE drilling programme at Pepas.
• The Company was recommended to drill a few additional holes to define the boundaries of the current deposit envelope.
• These holes returned lower grade halo-style mineralisation as expected, with hole PEP-067 an infill hole.
• PEP-067 returned 74m at 4.3g/t Au (inc. 17m at 7g/t Au and 11m at 8g/t Au
• The Pepas MRE drilling programme is due for completion soon with a maiden Resource due January 2026.
• A PQ hole has been completed and will be used for metallurgical testwork.
• Mapping, sampling and trenching is underway around Pepas as the Company looks to find additional near-surface, high grade mineralisation.
• In Argentina, Orosur has started a 3,000-4,000m drilling programme testing for low sulphidation epithermal mineralisation.
• Seven holes have been drilled at El Pantano, with assay results due.
• Management reports encouraging signs from core drilled, noting signs of a low sulphidation epithermal system, including the presence of colloform banding.
• Management suggests drilling is ‘higher in the system, above the boiling zone.’
• El Pantano drilling is due for completion end of January 2026.

Conclusion: We are encouraged to see Orosur on track for a maiden MRE at Pepas in January 2026. This will be a key step towards advancing the asset through feasibility study and derisking. However, we also see it as a key moment for enabling Orosur to begin drill testing the wider Anza project, where we expect additional high-grade, near-surface deposits may be discovered. Furthermore, promising visuals were reported from the El Pantano project in Argentina, where drilling is expected to be complete in January.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 3.6p, Mkt Cap £93m – RESource EU Action Plan to support Barroso’s pathway to production

BUY – 18.5p

• The Company provides an update on the RESource EU Action plan.
• The EU is aiming to fund €3bn over the next 12 months to support critical raw materials projects.
• It also plans to fast-track Strategic Projects, like Barroso, with regulatory debottlenecking and financial de-risking tools.
• The plan also intends to support downstream consumer companies, securing offtake agreements and raw materials purchases.
• Savannah is playing an active role on the Action Plan and intends to maintain engagement with stakeholders.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

SolGold* (SOLG LN) 26.4p, Mkt Cap £789m – Revised possible offer for SolGold by Jiangxi Copper at 28p

• SolGold and Jiangxi Copper (Hong Kong) Investment Company Limited (JCC) have released a joint statement about a possible offer.
• JCC has made a revised non-binding indicative cash offer for the company at 28p/s.
• The revised possible offer values SolGold at ~£842m and represents a 43% premium to the closing price on 19 November.
• BHP which holds 311m SolGold shares representing some 10.3% of the company had indicates its acceptance of the offer.
• Newmont which also holds 309m shares also representing 10.3% of the stock acquired as part of its acquisition of Newcrest also intends to accept the offer.
• Maxit Capital which holds 153m (5.1%) of SolGold shares also intends to accept the offer.
• Founder, Nick Mather who holds 84m shares (2.8%) also intends to accept the offer.
• Together the above hold 40.7% of stock.
• SolGold recently disclosed details of a potential starter pit at the Tandayama América project, to help bring forward initial production from the Cascabel Licence in Ecuador.
• Tandayama América lies around 3km north of the deeper Alpala deposit which has significantly longer lead times to access the orebody.
• The potential pit encompasses a 60.2mt resource averaging 0.23% copper and 0.23g/t gold (reported in copper equivalent terms as 0.43%) with a “low waste-to-ore stripping ratio of 0.63:1”.
• Around 75% (45mt) of the resource in the starter pit “is classified as Measured …  with the remaining tonnage in the Indicated category” providing a measure of confidence that the planned development is “an attractive early-mining option that fits well into the development pathway”.
• Resources within the potential pit are a relatively small part of the overall resource at Tandayama América which currently hosts a resource of 576mt at an average grade of 0.21% copper and 0.20g/t gold (0.38% CuEq) including 535mt averaging 0.21% copper and 0.19g/t gold (0.38% CuEq) classed as ‘Measured & Indicated’.

Conclusion:  There is little doubt that Chinese smelters are desperate for copper concentrates.

We suspect China Inc is also putting its foot on as much copper as it can, primarily to feed Chinese domestic industrial demand, and as a secondary objective, to potentially deny new copper production to the west as part of a strategy to exert leverage over the West in mineral supply.

BHP is no-doubt treading a delicate line with China politically as a major supplier of iron ore but may come to regret its acceptance of the JCC offer if developments at Tandayama and Alpala serves to undermine copper prices in the next 5-10 years.

The sheer scale, capital cost (eg, the real capex) and lead time on the proposed Alpala mine meant that no western miner was going to risk its development in our view.

Chinese contractors working at substantially reduced cost and probably at a far faster pace will enhance the project economics.

We are reminded though of the sale of Monterrico Metal’s Rio Blanco copper project in Peru to a consortium led by Zijin Mining in 2007.

Local relations rapidly deteriorated under Chinese ownership to appoint where the mine remains undeveloped 18 years on.

*SP Angel acted and funded SolGold for many years and formerly sent an analyst to visit the Alpala project.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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