SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 15th October 2025

Gold ($4,183/oz) bounces off new record highs as focus on US labour market and China tensions

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Dokwe resource expansion drilling about to start

G Mining Ventures (GMIN CN) – Tocantinzinho ramp up continues as record quarterly production hit

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – Moma’s new wet concentrator plant expected to deliver full capacity, within budget, by the end of 2025

Loncor Resources (LN CN) – Acquisition by Chengtun Mining for C$261m

Mundoro Capital (MUN CN) – Earn in with BHP on Central Timok properties including $35m of exploration spending

Prospect Resources* (PSC AU) – Drilling expands mineralised footprint in Zambia

Red Rock Resources (RRR LN) – Sale of exploration licences in Ivory Coast

Resolute Mining (RSG LN) – Realising value from DRC investment to support projects in Ivory Coast and Senegal

Thor Explorations (THX LN) – Production supports FY25 guidance, Douta PFS due 4Q25

29Metals (29M AU) – Shares hit as seismic activity causes guidance reduction

Gold ($4,183/oz) bounces off new record highs as focus on US labour market and China tensions

• Gold prices climbed to record highs of $4,218/oz, up $80/oz this morning on sustained buying, before paring gains somewhat.
• Gold prices have now rallied 26% since August, with the bulk of the rally following the Fed’s rate cut at the most recent FOMC.
• US Treasury yields are starting to grind lower, amid growing signs of a slowing labour market in the US, despite the lack of NFP data amid the government shutdown.
• The extended US government shutdown is also likely contributing to gold’s rally, amid a wider theme of concerns over government debt loads.
• The dollar index rallied briefly before reversing course this morning.

IG TV Commodity Corner: 

ii TV – Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

Jerome Powell signalled the Fed to deliver a rat cut later this month in a speech on Tuesday.

• Powell highlighted concerns increasing risks of weak labour market although inflation remains a concern.
• “If we move too quickly, then we may leave the inflation job unfinished and have to come back later and finish it. If we move too slowly, there may be unnecessary losses, painful losses, in the employment market. So we’re in the difficult situation of balancing those two things,” he said.
• The central bank also indicated it may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months.
• The job is complicated by the lack of official data due to an ongoing shutdown and the Fed is to look for alternative private sector data sources in the meantime.
• The FOMC to meet at the end of the month and announce the rate decision 29 October.
• Markets are pricing in two rate cuts before year end.

China – Deflation eased in September with the economy struggling with weak consumer demand and overcapacity in a number of industries.

• Core CPI that excludes volatile food and energy came in at 1%, the highest in 19 months.
• CPI (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): -0.3/-0.4/-0.2
• PPI (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): -2.3/-2.9/-2.3

Japan – Opposition parties are meeting to decide on an alternative PM candidate reducing chances of dovish ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi heading the government.

• The tree main opposition parties have enough seats combined in the parliament to outnumber the Liberal Democratic Party.
• Trimming of “Takaichi” trades” saw the yen strengthening against the US$.
• The move was helped by dovish Powell comments that saw the US$ lower.

South Korea – The government announced a series of measures to curb growth in property prices.

• The measures include restricted mortgage limits, higher risk weights on banks’ home loans, and reducing LTV ratios on mortgage properties.

Currencies

US$1.1644/eur vs 1.1547/eur previous. Yen 151.13/$ vs 151.98/$. SAr 17.282/$ vs 17.473/$. $1.336/gbp vs $1.326/gbp. 0.652/aud vs         0.646/aud. CNY 7.125/$ vs 7.142/$.

Dollar Index 98.78 vs   99.44 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,206/oz vs US$4,127/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.6moz vs 97.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,657/oz vs US$1,660/oz previous

Palladium US$1,545/oz vs US$1,484/oz previous

Silver US$52.7/oz vs US$52.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,325/oz vs US$7,275/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,698/t vs US$10,535/t previous

Aluminium US$2,753/t vs US$2,744/t previous

Nickel US$15,200/t vs US$15,165/t previous

Zinc US$2,937/t vs US$2,987/t previous

Lead US$1,991/t vs US$1,980/t previous

Tin US$35,545/t vs US$35,505/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$62.2/bbl vs US$62.3/bbl previous

Natural Gas €31.6/MWh vs €31.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $79.7/lb vs $79.2/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.3/t vs US$105.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$447.3/t vs US$446.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$191.3/t vs US$192.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.0/t vs US$106.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$42,725/t vs US$42,725/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$74,386/t vs US$74,702/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,853/t vs US$9,830/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$825/t vs US$825/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$613/mtu vs US$603/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$395/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$273/t vs US$272/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,099/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Global EV sales hit record 2.1m units in September

• Global EV sales rose 26% yoy in September to a record 2.1m units.
• China led with 1.3m sales, around 66% of the global total, with Europe up 36% to 427,541 and North America up 66% to ~215,000.
• Surge driven by China’s trade-in subsidies and the US rush before the $7,500 EV tax credit expired.
• Europe reached a new high, supported by incentives in Germany and strong UK demand.

Company news

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 1.83p, Mkt Cap £42m – Dokwe resource expansion drilling about to start

• Ariana Resources confirms that a reverse-circulation (RC) drilling rig is being mobilised from South Africa for an ~11,000m programme at its 1.1moz Dokwe gold project in Zimbabwe.
• The drilling will investigate four priority targets “including extensions to the Dokwe North and Dokwe Central deposits, which host combined Resources of 1.1Moz @ 1.52g/t Au at a cut-off grade of 0.6g/t”.
• An initial, 4,000m phase of the planned drilling will use 26 holes to follow-up “an extensive and comprehensive review of soil, drill hole, and geophysics datasets, which have resulted in improved geological models for the deposits and across the wider project area … [including a significant] … gold-in-soil anomaly identified to the NE of Dokwe North”.
• Managing Director, Dr.Kerim Sener, explained that the drilling rig is “capable of drilling to depths in excess of 300m to test several targets identified in our recent work programmes in the Dokwe North and Central areas”.
• He said that “Following the results of this initial phase of drilling, we anticipate either extending the RC programme or commencing a programme of diamond drilling as a prelude to JORC Resource upgrade, targeted for 2026”.

Conclusion: Since acquiring the Dokwe project in mid-2024, Ariana Resources has already delivered resource increases and identified additional resource expansion opportunities which the new drilling aims to test.

G Mining Ventures (GMIN CN) C$32, Mkt Cap C$7.3bn – Tocantinzinho ramp up continues as record quarterly production hit

• G Mining, who hold the Tocantinzinho Gold Mine in Brazil, report production data.
• The Company produced 46.4koz (42.6koz prior quarter)
• Tonnes processed at 1.1mt, recoveries at 92.3%, average gold grade of 1.43g/t Au (1mt processed at 90.3% recoveries prior quarter)
• Management highlights the Tocantinzinho has hit its highest quarterly gold production.
• GMIN announced earlier this month it has secured a financing package of up to $538m for the construction of Oko West in Guyana.
• Oko West:
  • 12 year LOM producing 350kozpa average at $1,123/oz AISC
  • P&P reserves of 4.6moz at 1.89g/t Au
  • Fully permitted for construction

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 289.5p, Mkt Cap £272m – Moma’s new wet concentrator plant expected to deliver full capacity, within budget, by the end of 2025

• As Kenmare Resources works towards bringing its new wet-concentrator plant at the Moma mineral sands operation in Mozambique to full capacity by the end of 2025, it reports the production of 298.400t of heavy mineral concentrate during the 3 months to 30^th September (Q3 2024 – 355,400t).
• Ilmenite production during the quarter was 209,000t (Q3 2024 – 257,400t) with output of primary zircon and rutile of 12,300t and 1,800t respectively (Q3 2024 – 14,600t and 2,900t).
• The company attributes the lower production to “lower excavated ore volumes related to WCP A’s production pause to allow upgrade work to take place”.
• Shipments of “finished products of 227,400 tonnes … [were] … down 25% YoY, due to reduced shipping capacity because the Peg transshipment vessel was in dry dock during Q3 but returned to Moma in late September”.
• Kenmare Resources explains that “Work on hiring a third transshipment vessel has been deferred due to reduced short-term demand, following a customer in financial distress signalling that it will be unable to take contracted volumes, but remains under consideration for 2026”.
• This customer’s “total contracted volume of 65,000 tonnes of ilmenite, which was scheduled to be shipped in H2 2025, is unlikely to be taken by the customer … [and although] … Kenmare is looking to place this volume into the market … sales have not yet been agreed”.
• The company confirms that “subject to the ramp up of WCP A progressing to schedule” it expects to achieve “2025 production and cost guidance, although ilmenite production is expected to be towards the lower end of the guidance range at 930,000 to 960,000 tonnes”.
• Describing progress on the wet-concentrator plant upgrade “ahead of its transition to … [mining] … the Nataka ore zone … [described as the] … largest ore zone in Moma’s portfolio” , the company confirms that the capital cost estimate of $341m remains intact and that with around 80% now spent, “the project is anticipated to be largely de-risked”.
• “The plant will progressively ramp up production during Q4, with its nameplate capacity of 3,500 tonnes per hour expected to be achieved by the end of 2025. WCP A will complete its mine path in Namalope in Q2 2026 and will begin its transition to Nataka from late Q2 2026, which is expected to take approximately 18 months”.
• Kenmare Resources says that global demand for mineral sands products has “softened” and that prices have weakened “due to supply outweighing demand”.
• “Weaker global demand for titanium minerals reflected softer underlying end markets, such as housing and construction, and this continues to weigh on titanium dioxide pigment consumption. Pigment production rates in China were lower in the summer months, while several pigment plants outside of China curtailed or suspended output in response to weak market conditions”.

Conclusion: Kenmare’s new plant at Moma is expected to reach full capacity by the end of 2025 and is on track to be delivered within budget.  The company reports softening demand and weaker prices for mineral sands products in response to oversupply.

Loncor Resources (LN CN) C$1.31, Mkt Cap C$231m – Acquisition by Chengtun Mining for C$261m

• Loncor, who hold the Indo Project in the DRC, report the have agreed a takeover by Chengtun Mining.
• Consideration:
  • C$1.38/share in all-cash transaction representing c.C$261m fully diluted.
  • Marks a 33% premium to 30 day VWAP and 16% premium to 10^th October closing price.
• Major sharheolders Resolute and Arnold Kondrat support the transaction.
• Chengtun currently owns and operates mines in the DRC, including the Kalongwe copper-cobalt mine.
• Imbo Project 2021 PEA:
  • Combined inferred resource of 22.5mt at 2.89g/t Au for 2.1moz  (85% Interest)
  • 4.8mtpa at 2.17g/t Au for 303kozpa over 10 year LOM
  • LOM AISC $950/oz
  • Pre-production CAPEX of US$392m and $138m for 3 hydro plants
  • NPV5 post-tax at $1bn and IRR of 29% using $1,840/oz Au.

Mundoro Capital (MUN CN) C$0.29, Mkt Cap C$25m – Earn in with BHP on Central Timok properties including $35m of exploration spending

• Mundoro Capital, a royalty generation company, signed a definitive option agreement with BHP for its seven exploration properties in the Timok Magmatic Complex, eastern Serbia.
• Terms of the deal include:
  • Earn 100% over 10y in stages for a total of $35m in exploration spending including (cumulative)
    • US$2.5m by year 2;
    • US$7.0m by year 4
    • US$14.5m by year 6;
    • US$27.0m by year 8;
    • US$35.0m by year 10.
  • Mundoro to retain 2% NSR (subject to a buyback before start of production – 50% of the royalty – with the price linked to a copper tonnage and 1y average LME copper price);
  • Annual payments to Mundoro starting at $323k, inflated by 2%pa over 10y;
  • Additional milestone payments for a total of $10m (paid out in $2m increments on certain resource estimates being declared or $10m total by year 10 if BHP exercises the earn in and no resource is declared);
  • Mundoro team to remain the operator and receive annual operating fees (BHP may replace Mundoro upon funding $20m in exploration or if at least 40,000m of cumulative drilling is completed).
• The deal envisages up to $35m in exploration spending and ~$14m in milestone and option payments to Mundoro.
• The BHP-Mundoro Central Timok Project covers 418sqkm within the prolific Tethyan Belt and located next to operating mines (Bor, Majdanpek, Veliki Krivelj, Cukaru-Peki)
• A total of C$15.4m was spent on exploration at the property by previous partners generating a number of targets.
• Drilling to target copper gold porphyry and related high sulphidation epithermal systems.
• Stock closed 21% higher on the TSX yesterday.

Prospect Resources* (PSC AU) A$0.2, Mkt Cap A$141m – Drilling expands mineralised footprint in Zambia

• Zambian-backed copper explorer Prospect reports drill results from its Nyungu Central deposit.
• Nyungu Drilling highlights include:
  • NCDD011: 21m at 0.7% Cu from 226m and 14.4m at 0.45% Cu from 84m (inc. 4.4m at 0.6g/t Au from 84m)
  • NCDD015: 36m at 0.33% Cu from 52m
• Kabiku drilling highlights:
  • KKDD018: 13m at 0.5% Cu from 138m
  • NCDD014: 13m at 0.31% Cu from 37m
• Company notes that new strike extensions have been defined at the southern and northern ends of Nyungu, which now holds a 1.5km mineralised footprint.
• Phase 2 drilling at Mumbezhi nearing completion, with an MRE due for 4Q25 for Nyungu Central and Kabikupa.
• Geophysics ongoing with airborne electromagnetic survey over Nyungu and Kabikupa-Kamafamba, with licence-wide geochemical soil sampling completed.

Conclusion: We are fans of the Prospect team and it is encouraging to see strong progress from drilling at Mumbhezhi, with continued expansion of the mineralised footprint. We look forward to an updated MRE this quarter and would not be surprised to see FQM (15% shareholder) move sooner rather than later as they seek extensions to the Sentinel LOM.

*An SP Angel analyst has visited Prospect’s Zambian exploration tenure

Red Rock Resources (RRR LN) 0.04p, Mkt Cap £2.5m – Sale of exploration licences in Ivory Coast

• Red Rock Resources reports a binding conditional agreement to sell its wholly-owned exploration licences in Cote d’Ivoire.
• The sale of the local exploration subsidiary, LacGold Resources, to ASX-listed Dalaroo, is valued at A$715,500 (£350,000) to be paid in shares valued at a price of A$0.054/share.
• Dalaroo will also pay “a Resource Definition Royalty” of A$2/oz “of any future Indicated Resource”.
• Chairman, Andrew Bell confirmed that Red Rock Resources had “received three offers for our Ivory Coast licences, and chose Dalaroo as our preferred partner”.
• He said that “We see the assets as highly prospective but given their considerable size, and our other commitments, we believed their sale under a partnership model to an aggressive explorer was our best way forward”.

Resolute Mining (RSG LN) 55.5p, Mkt cap £1,182m – Realising value from DRC investment to support projects in Ivory Coast and Senegal

• Resolute Mining has agreed to support Chengtun Mining’s C$261m offer to acquire TSX-listed Loncor Gold which holds exploration projects in the Ngayu Greenstone Belt of the northeast DRC close to Barrick Gold’s Kibali gold mine.
• Resolute Mining holds 31.45m shares in Loncor Gold “valued at approximately US$31 million (C$43.4 million) at the current exchange rate”.
• CEO, Chris Eger, said that the “sale proceeds will further reinforce Resolute’s balance sheet and help advance the Company’s strategic growth initiatives across our African-focused gold portfolio”.
• He said that Resolute Mining’s “key priorities include the development of the Doropo Project in Côte d’Ivoire and the extension of the Mako Mine in Senegal”.

Thor Explorations (THX LN) 75p, Mkt Cap £928m – Production supports FY25 guidance, Douta PFS due 4Q25

• Thor Explorations, gold producer in Nigeria, reports 3Q25 production data.
• The Company poured 22.6koz over the period, selling 19.7koz at $3,535/oz.
• Company processed 250kt at 3.1g/t Au for 23.6koz over the period vs 238kt at 3.1gt Au for 22.2koz the prior quarter.
• Revenue of $69.5m reported.
• Guidance reiterated for FY25 at 85-95koz at AISC of $800-1,000/oz.
• On drilling, Nigerian scout drilling is ongoing, having identified near-mine and regional targets, whilst underground drilling advances.
• In Senegal at Douta, Baraka 3 drilling will be extended and an initial RAB drilling programme at Bousankhoba will begin in the new year.
• An updated MRE and PFS at Douta is expected by the end of 2025.
• In Cote d’Ivoire, exploration is advancing at Guitry, Marahui and Boundiali.
• Additional drilling at Guitry and initial drilling at Marahui set to begin in 4Q25.
• Thor expects to deliver a maiden MRE for Guitry during 2025.
• Thor pays an interim dividend of C$0.0125/share.

29Metals (29M AU) A$0.42, Mkt Cap A$570m – Shares hit as seismic activity causes guidance reduction

• Australian copper-zinc producer 29Metals reports its September quarter results.
• Copper production at 5.8kt , Zinc produced at 2kt, gold at 2koz and Ag at 2koz.
• This compared to the June quarter at 5.6kt copper, 12.3kt Zn, 2kt Au and 223koz Ag.
• C1 costs reported at $3.74/lb vs $2.09/lb in the June quarter.
• SUSEX reported at A$33m over the quarter vs A$24m prior quarter.
• AISC reported at US$4.93/lb vs A$3.28/lb prior quarter.
• Production and subsequently AISC impacted by restricted access to Xantho Extended following seismic activity.
• Gossan Valley box cut excavation on track for first ore 2026-end.
• At Capricorn, dewatering continues with 1.5gigalitres reduced since suspension, TSF application submitted.
• Liquidity reduced to A$168m from A$202m (cash at A$153m and net drawn debt up to A$44m from A$19m.
• Revised 2025 guidance:
  • Zn: 34-40kt from 60-70kt
  • Au: 15-20koz from 20-25koz
  • Ag: 700-900koz from 750-1000koz
• Stock down 20% in ASX trading.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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