SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 23rd September 2025

Gold jumps to new high as western investors play catch up on continued de-dollarisation theme

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Caledonia Mining* (CMCL LN) – Fatality at the Blanket mine

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co (6693 HK) – Searching for gold acquisitions

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Updated corporate presentation highlights upcoming catalysts

FinEx Metals (FINX CN) – Drilling completed at Ruoppa gold project, Finland

First Tin (1SN LN) – Further infill and expansion drilling results from Taronga, NSW

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – Progress in Cameroon, focus now on metallurgical processing

Tungsten West (TUN LN) – Departure of CFO

Gold ($3,784/oz) jumps to new high as western investors play catch up on continued de-dollarisation theme

• Gold prices have extended their gains, adding another 1% this morning, pushing past record highs.
• The spot price is now up 12% over the past month, 44% over the past 12 months and 103% over the past five years.
• ETF holdings jumped again, rising over 96moz from 2024 lows of 81moz.
• However, we continue to highlight that ETF holdings are well below 2020 and 2022 levels of 110moz and 108moz respectively.
• Furthermore, COMEX net long positions remain well below mid-2024 levels over 0.25m, currently at 0.12m on the index.
• Governor Miran published his reasons for the 50bp dissent at last week’s FOMC, noting that monetary policy is ‘well into restrictive territory… leaving short-term interest rates roughly 2% too tight.’
• Miran, who is a Trump loyalist and also works in the White House, has fuelled concerns over Fed independence and continued dollar debasement, supporting gold prices.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger withdraw from International Criminal Court

• Military states Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have withdrawn from the International Criminal Court.
• The countries have described the US institution as a ‘neo-colonial’ imperialist tool.
• The Countries have formed the Alliance of Sahel States.
• They stated in a joint statement that “the ICC has proven itself incapable of handling and prosecuting proven war crimes, crimes against humanity, crimes of genocide, and crimes of aggression.”

Lithium – Re-evaluation of US$2.3bn loan for Thacker Pass lithium mine and process plant

• The Trump Administration is re-evaluating the approval of a US$2.3bn loan to Lithium Americas Corp for the development of Thacker Pass according to Mining.com.
• The review carried out by the Energy Department follows concerns that the project could fail to generate lithium at competitive prices.
• The re-evaluation is due to the potential for customers to continue to buy lower-cost lithium from China
• General Motors holds a 38% stake.
• Capex est.inc 15% contingency:
  • Phase 1 $2.93bn – 40,000tpa Lithium Carbonate from 2027. Ramps up in 2028 (2,000 jobs)
  • Phase 2 $2.33bn – 40,000tpa Lithium Carbonate from 2031. Ramps up in 2032.
  • Phase 3 $2.74bn – 40,000tpa Lithium Carbonate from 2035. Ramps up in 2036.
  • Phase 4 & 5 $4.32bn – 40,000tpa Lithium Carbonate from 2039. Ramps up in 2040.
    • 350 full-time jobs during operations. LOM, av. 1,100 full-time employees for mining and processing
• The agency is now pushing General Motors Co.to sign a binding offtake agreement for the mine’s production,
• Lithium Americas: “Offtake agreement with General Motors for 100% of production volumes from Phase 1 for 20 years, plus 38% of Phase 2 production volumes for 20 years, and a right of first offer on the remaining Phase 2 production volumes.“
• Thacker Pass is a sedimentary deposit with lithium concentrated in illite and smectite clays in Nevada grading 0.22% to 0.25% Lithium.
  • Reserves 14mt LCE at 0.55% Li2O.
  • MRE 67mt LCE at 0.47% Li2O.
• AISC Operating costs are estimated at an initial $6,238 for lithium carbonate rising to 8,039/t for the life of the mine. Lithium carbonate currently sells for $10,091/t.

Conclusion: If General Motors fails to commit on offtake with Thacker Pass then we suspect the Trump Administration might look to withdraw funding.

Super Typhoons in Philippines and heading over to HK

• The Philippines is battling winds of 177mph today on the Babuyan Islands in Northern Cagayan province.
• The storm is threatening a storm surge of >10 feet and is expected to bring widespread flooding, landslides etc..
• Hong Kong has also ordered the evacuation of 400,000 people as the storm heads over to China.
• The storm is expected to continue on to Hanoi.

Trade Live with IG, Monday 22 September 2025: FED Powell Tomorrow, Core PCE Week Ahead: Stocks, Investing, Trading

Economics

US – Markets to watch for potential comments on monetary policy outlook at the coming Fed Chair Powell speech later today.

• Atlanta Fed Bostic and Fed Governor Bowman are also scheduled to speak today.

Eurozone – Private sector growth picked up slightly in September to the strongest level in 16 months, preliminary PMIs showed.

• Performance within the block varied with France posting another monthly contraction amid budget concerns while Germany reported a pickup in growth led by services.
• Hiring cooled while final goods inflation also slowed.
• The ECB expects growth to remain stable over the remainder of the year following a US/EU trade deal.
• No rate is currently priced in over the next 12 months.
• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 49.5/50.7/50.7
• Preliminary Services PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 51.4/50.5/50.5
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 51.2/51.0/51.1

Germany

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 48.5/49.8/50.0
• Preliminary Services PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 52.5/49.3/49.5
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 52.4/50.5/50.7

France

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 48.1/50.4/50.1
• Preliminary Services PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 48.9/49.8/49.6
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 48.4/49.8/49.7

UK – Preliminary PMI drops to a 4-month low in September amid subdued demand and firms reporting rising input cost.

• Weak business outlook driven by risks of further tax rises.
• Employment down.
• “September’s flash UK PMI survey brought a litany of worrying news including weakening growth, slumping overseas trade, worsening business confidence and further steep job losses.”
• The pound is little changed.
• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 46.2/47.0/47.1
• Preliminary Services PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 51.9/54.2/53.5/
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Sep/Aug/Est): 51.0/53.5/53.0

Currencies

US$1.1797/eur vs 1.1751/eur previous. Yen 147.74/$ vs 148.08/$. SAr 17.355/$ vs 17.369/$. $1.351/gbp vs $1.348/gbp. 0.659/aud vs         0.658/aud. CNY 7.115/$ vs 7.116/$.

Dollar Index 97.44 vs 97.66 previous

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,777/oz vs US$3,714/oz previous

Gold ETFs 96.1moz vs 95.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,424/oz vs US$1,418/oz previous

Palladium US$1,190/oz vs US$1,162/oz previous

Silver US$43.9/oz vs US$43.6/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,025/oz vs US$7,025/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,965/t vs US$9,985/t previous

Aluminium US$2,641/t vs US$2,670/t previous

Nickel US$15,230/t vs US$15,230/t previous

Zinc US$2,864/t vs US$2,920/t previous

Lead US$1,986/t vs US$2,000/t previous

Tin US$33,920/t vs US$34,285/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$66.3/bbl vs US$67.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices continue to trade within a narrow range as market sentiment shifts regarding the potential implementation of further sanctions on Russia energy exports.
• BP has halted plans to build a biofuels plant in Rotterdam amid weak demand and a sharpened focus on profitability, which leaves Castellon in Spain as the Company’s only potential standalone site for future development.
• Orsted has been granted a preliminary injunction by the District Court of Columbia against the US government’s stop-work order, allowing the Revolution Wind offshore power project to restart impacted activities while the underlying lawsuit challenging the stop-work order progresses.

Natural Gas €32.1/MWh vs €32.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $78.2/lb vs $77.4/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.8/t vs US$105.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$451.6/t vs US$451.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$187.7/t vs US$187.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.5/t vs US$107.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$34,550/t vs US$34,550/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$82,428/t vs US$81,646/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,091/t vs US$10,090/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$830/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$588/mtu vs US$588/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$92/lb vs US$92/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.7/kg vs US$23.7/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$271/t vs US$271/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,103/t vs US$1,103/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Ørsted wins court approval to restart Revolution Wind project

• A federal judge has granted Ørsted an injunction to block the Trump administration’s stop-work order on the $1.5bn Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island.
• The ruling allows work to resume immediately on the 704MW project, enough energy to power 350,000 homes in Rhode Island and Connecticut.
• 45 of 65 turbines had already been installed before the Trump administration halted the project.
• Ørsted has warned of major disruption and penalties if delays continued, but shares rose nearly 9% in Copenhagen after the decision to allow work to continue.
• The stop-work order had been issued in August on “national security” grounds, part of Trump’s wider freeze on offshore wind leases.
• Revolution Wind is a joint venture with Skyborn Renewables, backed by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners.

Company news

Caledonia Mining* (CMCL LN) 2460p, Mkt Cap £490m – Fatality at the Blanket mine

• We are saddened to learn of the death of a mineworker at Caledonia’s Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe.
• The accident, which occurred on 22nd^t September, resulted from secondary blasting
• The company expresses its condolences to the colleagues and family of the victim, a sentiment which, in common with many others involved in the industry, we share.

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co (6693 HK) HK$31, Mkt Cap HK$60bn – Searching for gold acquisitions

• Nikkei reports Chinese miner Chifeng is looking to acquire gold projects abroad.
• CEO Yang Yifang stated in an interview that “there is a shortage of gold production, and the world is in chaos.”
• Chifeng’s operations are currently predominantly in China, with 4 gold mines and one polymetallic operation.
• Additionally, Chifeng holds the Sepon Gold-Copper mine in Laos. Producing 6kt Cu and 174koz Au in 2024.
• The Company also holds the Wassa Gold Mine in Ghana, targeting 200koz in 2025.
• Chifeng’s ex-China assets generate 75% of the Company’s revenue.
• Yang notes that “people are turning to gold because it’s very trustworthy and reliable. You can ask yourself: Do you want to hold gold, or do you want to hold currencies.?”
• Yang emphasises the need for stable jurisdictions in their acquisition targets, steering clear of Pakistan, Kazakhstan and some parts of Africa.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 58p, Mkt Cap £402m – Updated corporate presentation highlights upcoming catalysts

1. Empire Metals has released a new corporate presentation.
2. The presentation highlights the long-life, large-scale and high-quality product potential for the Pitfield titanium project.
3. The Company is aiming to deliver a >99% TiO2 product into the pigment and metal markets at premium pricing.
4. JORC MRE targeted for 4Q25.
5. Exploration Target currently sits at 26.4-32.2mt at 4.5-5.5% TiO2.
6. Reiterates declining high-grade TiO2 upstream supply availability, with rutile operations due to come online limited.
7. Pitfield operation set to benefit from continuous ore grades, low-cost mining and supportive infrastructure, including high-voltage power substations, natural gas pipelines, road and rail connections and regional green energy supply.
8. Flow sheet currently includes gravity and flotation, followed by acid leaching and purification.
9. Catalysts:
   1. JORC MRE 4Q25
   2. Bulk metallurgical testwork and flowsheet design
   3. Mining, processing and infrastructure studies
   4. Marketing for pigment and sponge markets
   5. Metallurgical test facility to fast-track product development
10. Click the: LINK

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

FinEx Metals (FINX CN) C$0.38, Mkt Cap C$23m – Drilling completed at Ruoppa gold project, Finland

• Finnish gold explorer FinEx reports they have completed drilling at their flagship Ruoppa project.
• The Company has conducted 14 diamond holes over 2,483m across several targets.
• The summer programme also included further ToB drilling, 12 trenches over 1,041m and a soil sampling programme, alongside aeromag surveys.
• Ruoppa lies in the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt of Finland,
• Drilling was designed to test high-priority targets identified via trenching and top-of-bedrock drilling.
• The team has identified a 2,700m anomalous gold zone at Ruoppa, with trenching samples returning up to 95g/t Au, with 52 trenches returning >1g/t Au.
• The licence package is adjacent to Angico Eagle’s Kittila operation, which produced c.220koz Au in 2024.

First Tin (1SN LN) 6.15p, Mkt Cap £28m – Further infill and expansion drilling results from Taronga, NSW

• First Tin reports more results from its current infill and extension drilling programme at for the Taronga tin project in New South Wales.
• The company confirms that up to 12^th September it had completed 69 reverse circulation (RC) holes (5,111m) as part of its campaign to “convert Inferred resources to Indicated status and to test several interpreted zones of mineralisation close to the proposed pits”.
• Results which “continue to confirm similar grade tin mineralisation to that in the current resource and reserve” and reported at a 0.05% tin cut-off, include wide intersections of:

• • 62m at an average grade of 0.10% tin from a depth of 12m in hole TMTARC-053 with a higher-grade portion of 12m averaging 0.14% tin from 35m depth; and
  • 71m at an average grade of 0.09% tin from surface in hole TMTARC-055 with a higher-grade portion of 9m averaging 0.15% tin from 11m depth; and
  • 76m at an average grade of 0.08% tin from 20m depth in hole TMTARC-059 including a higher-grade portion of 17m averaging 0.11% tin from 20m depth.

• Today’s report also includes narrower intersections of

• • 8m at an average grade of 0.13% tin from 24m depth in hole TMTARC-046; and
  • 13m at an average grade of 0.19% tin from 8m depth in hole TMTARC-049, including a higher-grade section of 4m at an average grade of 0.35% tin from 14m depth; and
  • 14m at an average grade of 0.06% tin from 32m depth in hole TMTARC-050 including
  • 9m at an average grade of 0.13% tin from surface in hole TMTARC-051 which also intersected 7m averaging 0.14% tin from 40m depth; and
  • 19m at an average grade of 0.12% tin from 54m depth in hole TMTARC-054 with a6m wide section averaging 0.18% tin from 58m; and
  • 20m at an average grade of 0.12% tin from surface in hole TMTARC-056 with a second intersection of 3m grading 0.32% tin from 33m; and
  • 13m at an average grade of 0.13% tin from surface in hole TMTARC-058; and
  • 25m at an average grade of 0.13% tin from 54m depth in hole TMTARC-060 including 10m at an average grade of 0.21% tin from 61m; and
  • 21m at an average grade of 0.07% tin from surface in hole TMTARC-061 with a second 15m wide interval at an average grade of 0.11% tin from 65m depth.

• Today’s announcement explains that “Significant widths of mineralisation, at grades close to the average resource grade, have been identified within or immediately adjacent to the current pit outlines, in areas that are currently classified as waste rock … [and these are expected to increase] … the overall resource and reserve base as well as lowering the strip ratio within the current pit outlines”.
• The announcement also explains that “Only one drillhole to date failed to intersect significant mineralisation (TMTARC057) and this is well outside the current pit limits, targeting a previously untested soil anomaly”.
• First Tin explains that results so far show extensions of mineralisation northeast of the North Pit and “Broad zones of low grade mineralisation with higher grade cores … in the Hillside Extended zone within the North Pit area … [and that] … The northeastern extensions of the Hillside Extended zone have been confirmed in the South Pit area”.
• The company’s December 2024 presentation to the International Tin Association shows a ‘Proven & Probable’ mineral reserve of 40mt at an average grade of 0.13% tin at Taronga within a total ‘Measured, Indicated and Inferred’ resource of 133mt at a grade of 0.1% tin.
• The ‘Inferred’ portion of the resource, which the current campaign is aiming to upgrade is 61.1mt at an average grade of 0.09% tin.
• CEO, Bill Scotting, said that the results “continue to validate our interpretation that additional mineralisation exists within and adjacent to the current pit outlines …  [and that the] … grades and widths intercepted are consistent with existing quantified resources and are expected to result in additional resources being added within the current pit outlines, including converting current Inferred Resources to Indicated status”.

Conclusion: Results from the infill and extension drilling at Taronga show encouraging potential to expand the resource through both reclassification of material previously regarded as waste and as a result of identifying extensions to the mineralised structures.

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.34p, Mkt Cap £13m – Progress in Cameroon, focus now on metallurgical processing

• Cameroonian gold developer/explorer Oriole reports interim results to 30^th June 2025.
• The Company reports a £0.57m loss over the period, with administrative expenses of £0.72m.
• Exploration expenditure over the period of £1.31m.
• Cash balance as of 30^th June 2025 of £0.53m, with cash at 31^st August of £0.68m.
• Oriole has been drilling out the Mbe project with JV partner BCM International.
• Oriole has delivered a maiden Exploration Target at MB01 of 33-44mt at 0.77-0.95g/t Au for 0.82-1.34moz.
• Company aiming to deliver a maiden JORC MRE for MB01-S, accounting for 60% of the Exploration Target.
• At Bibemi, Company reported a 23% increase of the Bakassi Zone 1 MRE to 460koz Au at 2.06g/t Au (100koz Au in indicated).
• An additional Exploration Target of 3-5mt at 1.5-2.5g/t Au for 145-400koz Au at Bakassi Zone 1, 2 and Lawa East/West was also released.
• Metallurgical testwork at Bakassi Zone 1 confirmed the presence of gold telluride, with recoveries guided at 85% using flotation and pressure oxidation of a bulk concentrate, cyanide leaching the pressure oxidation residue.
• At Senala in Senegal, an Exploration Target of 17-24mt at 0.69-0.84g/t Au for 380-650koz.
• At the Wapouzé project in Cameroon, the Company has renewed the limestone exploration licence, with focus on bringing the licence to production.

Tungsten West (TUN LN) 9p, Mkt cap £17m – Departure of CFO

• Tungsten West has announced the resignation of Mr. Alistair Stobie as its Chief Financial Officer.
• Mr. Stobie, who will also resign as a director, departs “with immediate effect, to pursue further career opportunities”.
• While a permanent replacement is sought, “Phil Povey, currently Head of Commercial & Corporate Development of Tungsten West, will assume the role of interim CFO”.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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