SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 22nd September 2025

Gold hits new record as ETF buying jumps 800,000oz since Friday and Indonesian buyers accumulate

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – BUY, 182p NAV – Environmental Permit and PFS workstreams advancing

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Drilling at Bill’s Luck supports mining expansion plan

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – Final assays from Mbe Phase 1 drilling programme

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) – Annual results focus on Northern Territory rare earths exploration project

Panther Metals (PALM LN) – Consultant appointed to prepare an MRE for the Winston Lake tailings project, Ontario

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) – Interim report describes additional mineralisation near the Molaoi zinc project in Greece

Gold ($3,720/oz) hits new record as ETF buying jumps 800,000oz since Friday and Indonesian buyers accumulate

• Gold rose a further 1% to $3,720/oz this morning following a similar 1% rise on Friday.
• A US bill to target the Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ by identifying ships supporting Russian oil exports raises concerns for escalation with Russia.
• Trump wants to dissuade traders from purchasing Russian oil and to stop countries from enabling the trade.
• Ray Dalio, a veteran hedge fund guru, sees global debt pressure as undermining major currencies and recommends investors hold 10% of their funds in gold.
• Dalio warns of a looming US financial crisis which might destabilize the monetary system and unsustainable government spending and borrowing
• Washington may need to issue $12 trillion in debt to cover deficits, interest payments, and maturing borrowings, creating a supply-demand imbalance in markets.
• Dailo sees Trump’s latest tax-and-spend package as adding $3.4 trillion to debt with US debt reaching a tipping point with France, Japan and China facing similar risk
• Indonesia: news reports strong buying of gold in Indonesia on expectations for US dollar weakness
• India: gold traders are reported to be offering gold at a $7/oz premium vs $2/oz last week ahead of the Dussehra and Diwali festivals (Reuters)
• China: dealers offering discounts on sales of $21-$36/oz as investors move to risk-on assets
• Hong Kong: gold sales at a modest $1.60/oz premium
• Singapore: premiums ranged from $0-1.40/oz.
• Japan: premiums at $0-1/oz as Japanese retailers continue to sell stock
• Switzerland: Gold exports to China saw strong gains jumping 254% in August from July.
• Gold miners are playing catch up, having shrugged off the recent move, the VanEck Gold Miners Index jumped 5% on Friday, led by gains from Barrick, Newmont and Agnico.
• US Treasuries sold off again after the FOMC, despite a 25bp cut with expectation rising for a further cut this year.
• Higher rates historically weighed on gold; however, we believe there are more significant factors at play in this gold rally with strong central bank demand, particularly in China.
• This trend seems to be spreading to Indonesia, where the government recently introduced bullion banks to store and manage gold
• The removal of the Indonesian finance minister has seen the rupiah slump and local markets weaken pushing local buyers into safe haven assets.

China orders steel mills to avoid buying BHP iron ore as price negotiations get underway

• The Australian reported that the Chinese state iron ore trader has ordered mills to stop buying Jimblebar fines sold by BHP.
• CMRG was set up in 2022 to tackle the oligopoly in iron ore supply of BHP, Rio, Fortescue and Vale.
• Benchmark prices are currently well above forecasts at $105/t.
• Bloomberg reports that various state-owned steel mills have withdrawn orders for BHP’s Jimblebar cargoes.
• Jimblebar produces c.60mtpa, with its fines product trading at a c$20/t discount to 62% Fe.
• China has imported over 100mt of iron ore for the third straight month, with September imports expected to be the highest since December 2024.
• Strong demand comes despite weak construction, with new construction starts down 19.5% in August yoy.

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Economics

US – Trump administration introduced a new $100k visa fee for H-1B workers

• The H-1B visa allows US companies to hire highly skilled foreign workers.
• The scheme was primarily used by the tech industry that highlighted shortage of professionals with science, math, and computer science skills.
• Computer related occupations accounted for around 65% of H-1B approvals in fiscal 2023.
• Changes will be introduced for new applications in February onwards, not current H-1B holders.
• 141k new H-1B visas were issued last year suggesting US employees may face $14bn in extra cost to attract new talent from overseas. (FT)

France – Business leaders warn against the left’s proposal for a new wealth tax. (FT)

• The Socialist Party that is essential for the survival of latest PM, the third one in less than a year, urged the administration to introduce a 2%pa tax on net worth over EUR100m.
• The government has been struggling with bringing budget deficits, one of the highest in the Eurozone, down and been exploring options to raise revenues and cut spending.
• Tax proponents argue the levy may raise EUR15bn pa reducing the need for spending cuts.

UK – Retailers and hospitality companies sound alarm over the UK jobs market as companies cut staff hours and reduce headcount. (FT)

• Companies report an increase in application rates amid lower vacancies available.
• Retail and hospitality were bearing the brunt of tax and minimum wage increases.
• Businesses are looking at reducing hours and increasingly considering automation.

Porsche is delaying the roll out of new EV models amid weak demand and strong competition hurting margins while switching focus back to ICEs and hybrids.

• The Company profit warned on Friday for a fourth time this year with the stock set to be excluded from the DAX benchmark.
• Porsche said it would add more combustion engine and hybrid models while pausing development of a battery powered luxury SUV.
• The stock traded 8% down this morning.

Currencies

US$1.1751/eur vs 1.1757/eur previous. Yen 148.08/$ vs 147.97/$. SAr 17.369/$ vs 17.354/$. $1.348/gbp vs $1.348/gbp. 0.658/aud vs 0.660/aud. CNY 7.116/$ vs 7.113/$.

Dollar Index 97.66 vs 97.51 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,714/oz vs US$3,653/oz previous

Gold ETFs 95.8moz vs 95.0moz previous

Platinum US$1,418/oz vs US$1,389/oz previous

Palladium US$1,162/oz vs US$1,150/oz previous

Silver US$43.6/oz vs US$42.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,025/oz vs US$7,025/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,985/t vs US$9,967/t previous

Aluminium US$2,670/t vs US$2,687/t previous

Nickel US$15,230/t vs US$15,330/t previous

Zinc US$2,920/t vs US$2,907/t previous

Lead US$2,000/t vs US$2,007/t previous

Tin US$34,285/t vs US$33,900/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$67.2/bbl vs US$67.3/bbl previous

Henry Hub Gas US$2.93/mmBtu vs US$2.90/mmBtu last Friday

• The US Baker Hughes rig count rose 3 to 542 units last week (-46 or 8% y/y), with oil rigs up 2 to 418 units (-70 y/y) and gas rigs flat at 118 units (+22 y/y), as the DJ-Niobrara Formation gained 2 rigs to 11 units (+4 y/y).
• SNAM-backed dCarbonX outlined plans to transform the depleted Bains gas field located in the East Irish Sea into a 1.4bcm gas storage site within five years, which could be future-proofed for biomethane and hydrogen conversion.
• ReconAfrica is currently logging the Kavango West 1X exploration well, before setting casing above the main Otavi reservoir zone and then drilling through ~1,500m before reaching total depth of ~3,800m with results expected in 4Q25.

Natural Gas €32.4/MWh vs €32.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $77.4/lb vs $76.7/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$113.3/t vs US$113.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$452.1/t vs US$452.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$188.0/t vs US$189.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$108.0/t vs US$106.6/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$34,550/t vs US$34,550/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$81,646/t vs US$81,684/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,090/t vs US$10,094/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$830/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$588/mtu vs US$578/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$92/lb vs US$91/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.7/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$271/t vs US$271/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,103/t vs US$1,104/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

BYD sees rapid expansion in Spain

• BYD has seen its presence in Spain grow rapidly over the last year, offering EVs priced significantly below European rivals.
• BYD’s share of Spain’s EV market, including fully-electric models and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), climbed to more than 10% in Spain in July despite EU tariffs on Chinese-made EVs.
• Models like the Dolphin and Seal are priced 20–30% under comparable European cars. (BYD Seal ~€30,000, vs. over €40,000 for VW’s Tiguan or Peugeot’s 3008)
• The brand now operates 40 sales outlets across Spain, up from only 15 a year ago.
• The Chinese automaker plans to double its Spanish network again by 2026 to support rising demand.
• Analysts note Spain could become BYD’s third-largest European market after Germany and the UK.

Company news

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 10p, Mkt Cap £6m – Environmental Permit and PFS workstreams advancing

BUY – 182p NAV

• Beowulf has reports strong progress as it advances towards the submission of the Environmental Permit application for Kallak.
• This includes continued engagement with the local community, whilst a nature value inventory was completed over the summer to analyse the transport corridor between the mine and railhead.
• Beowulf is also undertaking reindeer and wildlife management studies along the Inlandsbanan, which will enable transportation of the high-grade concentrate.
• Additionally, Beowulf is advancing the key PFS workstreams in line with expected environmental standards.
• PFS work ongoing includes:
  • Production and deployment nitrogen-free explosives, collaborating with HypexBio to reduce emissions by c.90%,
  • Autonomous, electric mining trucks, expected to enhance economics and ensure flexibility of mining rates over LoM.
  • More cost-effective crushing and grinding, with a closer relationship established with China’s LONGi.
  • Pipeline to transport concentrate to railhead,
  • Magnetite concentrate handling facility at Port of Narvik

Conclusion: Beowulf makes further progress as it works to submit the Environmental Permit alongside the Kallak Iron Ore PFS. They are deepening relations with suppliers and processing partners as they come closer to FID, and continue to work on routes to optimising the Kallak economics. Management is taking a meticulous approach to permitting via stakeholder engagement and environmental studies, which will prove vital in derisking the asset and bringing it closer to financing. We continue to see Beowulf as undervalued by the market given permitting concerns. Further positive progress on that front should support a closing of the valuation disconnect going forward.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining, An SP Angel analyst recently visited Kallak

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 1.07p, Mkt Cap £37m – Drilling at Bill’s Luck supports mining expansion plan

• Kavango Resources report drilling results from Bill’s Luck in Zimbabwe.
• The Company is aiming to establish an MRE at Bill’s Luck to inform future mine planning and scheduling.
• Two holes today intersected the Main Reef, believed to confirm the presence of a parallel Main Reef structure.
• Highlights today include:
  • BLDD009:
    • 2.2m at 5.1g/t Au from 28m depth (inc. 20.5g/t Au) in the Hangingwall Reef
    • 2.8m at 13.7g/t Au from 134m (inc. 46.7g/t Au over 0.5m and 24.7g/t Au over 0.5m in the Main Reef
    • 2.6m at 7.9g/t from 210m
  • BLDD010:
    • 5.7m at 3.5g/t Au from 29m depth
    • 1m at 9.3g/t Au from 86m
    • 8m at 8.1g/t Au from 159m depth (inc. 18.8g/t Au from 0.63m, 34g/t Au from 1m and 31g/t Au from 0.4m)
    • 3.4m at 3g/t Au from 171m (inc. 8.8g/t Au over 0.5m)
    • 0.9m at 1g/t Au from 236m
• The parallel anastomising structures are believed to conform, confirming the ‘Hangingwall Reef’.
• Parallel reef structures form the Main Reef and there is believed to be at least one Footwall Reef structurre.
• The main Bill’s Luck ore body is believed to extend >160m vertical depth.
• Kavango is ow looking to prepare to continue shaft sinking at Bill’s Luck to extend current mining operations.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.4p, Mkt Cap £15m – Final assays from Mbe Phase 1 drilling programme

• Cameroonian gold explorer Oriole reports final assay results from their maiden drilling programme at Mbe.
• Highlights include:
  • MBDD021: 1.1m at 0.96g/t Au from 5.2m, 1m at 1.3g/t Au from 75m and 1m at 1.13g/t Au from 208m
  • MBDD022: 12.5m at 0.74g/t Au from 5.5m, 9.5m at 0.45g/t Au from 40m and 8m at 0.53g/t Au from 61m
  • MBDD023: 5m at 0.87g/t Au from 88m, 9.5m at 0.41g/t Au from 224m
  • MBDD024: 30m at 0.79g/t Au from 117m (inc. 13.7m at 1.36g/t Au), 11m at 0.73g/t Au from 85m and 4.6m at 0.47/t Au from 167m
• Management notes Hole MBDD024 was drilled outside the limits of the Exploration Target and has increased the width of sub-surface mineralisation to 550m.
• The other holes extended strike of sub-surface system to c.500m.
• MB01-S MRE is due for 4Q25.
• MB01-S now runs over 500m in strike, 550m width and vertical depth of 290m.

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 0.63p, Mkt Cap £10m – Annual results focus on Northern Territory rare earths exploration project

• Reporting results for the year to 30th June 2025, Chairman, Ged Hall, emphasised the focus on its Harts Range rare-earths project in the Northern Territory which was acquired in October 2024.
• The company reports a post-tax loss for the year of A$2.46m (FY 2024 – loss of A$1.46m) and a closing cash balance of A$1.85m.
• At Harts Range, situated around 140km NE of Alice Springs, the initial ~100km2 project area has now been expanded “with an additional tenure application east of the primary project area. The Harts Range East Project increased the total tenure to 135km”.
• Initial field exploration and geophysical work “highlighted numerous distinct radiometric anomalies and confirmed the structural alignment of mineralised pegmatites at key locations, including the Cusp and Bobs Prospects”.
• “Enhanced magnetic imagery revealed that these prospects align along an ENE-trending structure, suggesting potential mineralised extensions in both the northern and southern regions of the project”.
• In March 2025, the company’s geophysical consultants identified “46 priority exploration targets across the project area … [at Harts Range] … Specifically … 18 high-priority, 16 medium-priority, and 12 lower-priority targets for follow-up exploration”, providing a pipeline of targets for further exploration and possibly future drilling.
• In August, the company announced that it was awaiting for permits to commence maiden RC programme at Harts Range with drilling targeted to commence 3QFY25.
• Following the disposal of non-core copper assets in Australia at the Broken Hill East and West projects and at the Cangai copper mine, Australian copper interest is focussed on the NWQ project in Queensland which is progressing through a collaboration with Austral Resources, the operator of the Mt Kelly processing plant.
• Post year end, “the Board resolved to exit the Mkushi Project in Zambia and has taken steps to deregister the Zambian subsidiary, Chalo Mining Group Limited”.

Conclusion: Annual results emphasise focus on exploring the Harts Range rare earth project in the Northern Territory, Australia.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

Panther Metals (PALM LN) 82.5p , Mkt Cap £4.8m – Consultant appointed to prepare an MRE for the Winston Lake tailings project, Ontario

• Panther Metals reports the appointment of the consultants, SRK, to prepare a mineral resource estimate (MRE) for its Winston Lake tailings project in Ontario.
• The MRE, which will be prepared in compliance with CIM standards, will help “advance the Winston Tailing Project through permitting towards a cashflow proposition and will be based upon the resource drilling programme, mineralogical and metallurgical testwork and associated studies which will be conducted during Q3 and Q4 2025”.
• Today’s announcement explains that the “Winston Lake Mine was operational from 1988 to 1998, producing approximately 3.3 million tonnes of ore and yielding zinc, copper, silver, and gold … [and says that] … Based on historic recoveries from mining activities in the 1980s and 1990s, it is believed that a significant quantity of valuable material remains in the tailing storage facility”.
• The announcement quotes an economic study from 2021 using a copper price of US$2,700/t (currently ~US$9,900/t), a gold price of US$1,635/oz (currently ~US$3,650) and a silver price of US$21/oz (currently ~US$42/oz) where capital investment of ~C$145m and a treatment rate of 326ktpa over an 8.5year project life produces “an average 33.40ktpa contained zinc,1.3ktpa contained copper, 698oz recovered gold and 90.8koz recovered silver”.
• The 2021 study, “detailed a strong economic case for mine redevelopment for a 1,000 tonnes per day underground operation” and showed the project generating a pre-tax NPV8% of ~C$176m and IRR of 26%.
• Subject to SRK’s findings, tailings retreatment may become a low cost a stepping stone to a similar underground mining project in future.

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) 0.23p, Mkt Cap £16m – Interim report describes additional mineralisation near the Molaoi zinc project in Greece

• Rockfire Resources which is exploring the Molaoi zinc project in Greece, reports a loss of £0.54m for the six months to 30th June (H1 2024 – loss of ~£0.89m) and a closing cash balance of £0.14m.
• Subsequently, on “3 July 2025, it was announced that the Company had conditionally raised £2 million (before expenses) by way of a placing … to continue development of the Company’s Molaoi zinc/silver/lead project in Greece”.
• As the project progresses from an ‘Inferred’ to an ‘Indicated’ resource and towards the pre-feasibility stage, Rockfire Resources has identified expansion potential in an area known as ‘Gkagkania’ beneath a “geochemical anomaly comparable to the surface signature at the main resource area at Molaoi”.
• Gkagkania is located around 600m north of the existing resource area at Kalamaki and subsequent company announcements, in March, “reported that strong, coherent zones of zinc and lead were identified to the north of Gkagkania, with the Fournos Prospect becoming another important target for the expansion of zinc resources”.
• Today’s announcement also describes “A new, extensively mineralised zone called the Agios Eustratios Prospect to the south of the main resource area of Kalamaki”.
• Molaoi currently hosts a JORC Inferred Mineral Resource of 15.0 million tonnes @ 7.26% Zn, 1.75% Pb and 39.50g/t Ag reported at a 4% cut-off at Kalamaki.
• Recently announced research by a team from the University of Patras has examined the germanium potential of the deposit and also looked at the by-product silver which may enhance “the economic value of the deposit”.
• Commenting on other projects, today’s announcement confirms the announcement in January 2025 that ASX-listed Sunshine Metals is earning a 75% interest in the Lighthouse exploration gold/silver exploration project in Queensland where Sunshine is targeting shallow “oxide gold resources for processing at potential nearby toll treating mills during a time of high gold prices”.

Conclusion: Exploration at the Molaoi deposit is identifying additional mineralisation both to the north and south of Kalamaki which may expand the existing 15mt ‘Inferred’ resource.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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