Gold on track for fifth weekly gain whilst dollar pares FOMC losses
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Aura Energy* (AURA LN) – FY25 results
Leo Lithium (LLL AU) – Agrees to return Goulamina proceeds to shareholders
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Upsize of private placement to C$20m
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Moving to enable buybacks and dividends
Sitka Gold (SIG CN) – Drilling hits 236m at 1.1g/t from surface in the Yukon
Zijin Mining (2899 HK)– Gold IPO kicks off in bid to raise $3.2bn
Gold ($3,650/oz) on track for fifth weekly gain whilst dollar pares FOMC losses
- Gold prices edge higher following a volatile Fed week.
- The dollar sold off following the 25bp cut decision, but has subsequently edged higher.
- US Treasuries have sold off in the wake of the FOMC meeting, where Trump’s appointment Miran dissented.
- Trump is also continuing to pursue Fed governor Lisa Cook, adding increased concern over the independence of the Fed.
- Meanwhile, traders are also expressing caution over the Fed’s decision to cut rates whilst inflation continues to trend above target and GDP growth continues.
- Claims data yesterday did not continue last week’s trend higher, providing some relief to labour market anxiety.
- In India, physical gold premiums rose to 10 month highs as festival season looms.
- In Cina, discounts to global spot prices hit 2020 lows, reflecting weak domestic demand.
- Analysts suggest Chinese retail has rotated into equities in search of higher returns.
- However, Reuters highlights Swiss customs data showed gold exports to China rose 254% in August mom as demand rebounded.
Mali – Government prosecutors appeal to a judge’s order to release four Barrick Mining employees on bail.
- Employees to remain in jail pending a review by the Court of Appeal.
- They were detained last November.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.27% | at | 46,142 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.57% | at | 45,046 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.03% | at | 26,537 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.30% | at | 3,820 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +2.3 | at | 4.13 |
Economics
US – President Trump asks Supreme Court to let him fire Fed governor Lisa Cook.
- Cook is being investigated by the Department of Justice over claims of mortgage fraud, although, she is yet to be charged.
- Cook urged the Court to reject Trump’s request that would otherwise undermine the Fed’ independence.
- She voted for a quarter point rate cut during the FOMC meeting this week, in line with majority of voting members.
Intel closed 23% up on Thursday following the news that Nvidia puts $5bn into the Company.
- Nvidia now joins Softbank and the US government in supporting Intel.
- The deal includes co development of data centres and PC chips.
- Nvidia closed up 3.5%.
UK – The central bank kept rates unchanged at 4.00% amid concerns over growing inflation.
- The MPC voted 7 to 2 on keeping rates flat.
- Additionally, the BOE add that future cuts will be “gradual and careful” and “depend on the extent to which underlying disinflationary pressures continue to ease”.
- “Although we expect inflation to return to our 2% target, we are not out of the woods yet,” Governor Andrew Bailey said.
- Although, the central bank will reduce the pace of bond sales to £70m per annum from the current £100m from October.
UK borrowing came in higher than previous forecasts amid higher spending on public services and higher debt interest.
- The government borrowed £84bn in the first five months of the fiscal year (Apr-Aug), over £72bn forecast by the OBR.
- The data adds further pressure on the Chancellor to raise taxes or cut spending at the coming October budget.
- Some commentators estimate that the government would need to plug more than £20bn hold to keep the government’s key fiscal rule.
- The pound pulled back and long term UK borrowing costs climbed with 30y paper now yielding 5.56%.
Currencies
US$1.1757/eur vs 1.1823/eur previous. Yen 147.97/$ vs 147.18/$. SAr 17.354/$ vs 17.416/$. $1.348/gbp vs $1.362/gbp. 0.660/aud vs 0.664/aud. CNY 7.113/$ vs 7.107/$.
Dollar Index 97.51 vs 97.04 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$3,653/oz vs US$3,651/oz previous
Gold ETFs 95.0moz vs 94.7moz previous
Platinum US$1,389/oz vs US$1,385/oz previous
Palladium US$1,150/oz vs US$1,160/oz previous
Silver US$42.1/oz vs US$41.7/oz previous
Rhodium US$7,025/oz vs US$7,025/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$9,967/t vs US$9,964/t previous
Aluminium US$2,687/t vs US$2,681/t previous
Nickel US$15,330/t vs US$15,270/t previous
Zinc US$2,907/t vs US$2,918/t previous
Lead US$2,007/t vs US$2,013/t previous
Tin US$33,900/t vs US$34,115/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$67.3/bbl vs US$68.5/bbl previous
Natural Gas €32.6/MWh vs €32.7/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $76.7/lb vs $76.5/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$113.3/t vs US$113.4/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$452.1/t vs US$452.8/t
HCC FOB Australia US$188.0/t vs US$189.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$108.0/t vs US$106.6/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$34,550/t vs US$33,335/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$81,684/t vs US$81,396/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,094/t vs US$10,032/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$810/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$578/mtu vs US$558/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$91/lb vs US$91/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$271/t vs US$271/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,104/t vs US$1,105/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
EV & battery news
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.8% | -2.9% | Freeport-McMoRan | -0.4% | -2.2% |
| Rio Tinto | -1.3% | -1.2% | Vale | -0.4% | 2.0% |
| Glencore | 0.5% | 1.8% | Newmont Mining | -0.5% | -1.7% |
| Anglo American | 1.4% | 0.2% | Fortescue | -0.2% | -0.4% |
| Antofagasta | 1.0% | 3.4% | Teck Resources | -0.4% | -5.6% |
Company news
Aura Energy* (AURA LN) 11p, ,Mkt Cap £106m – FY25 results
- The Company released FY25 results (Jun YE).
- PAT -A$15.3m (FY24: -A$6.6m).
- Loss includes A$5.4m in Curzon Uranium restructuring fees paid in shares.
- G&A expenses A$4.8m (FY24: A$3.5m) as the team is advances Tiris project funding talks.
- Impairment costs A$2.6m (FY24: nil) for the Tasiast South Project (Gold/Base Metals, Mauritania) as the Company focuses on development of the Tiris Uranium and Haggan Polymetallic Projects.
- CFO -A$6.6m (FY24: -A$4.8m).
- Capex -A$10.3m (FY24: -A$12.1m).
- Closing cash balance stood at A$11.7m and no bank debt.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Aura Energy
Leo Lithium (LLL AU) SUSPENDED – Agrees to return Goulamina proceeds to shareholders
- Leo Lithium, who sold the Goulamina spodumene mine to Ganfeng, report a corporate update.
- The Company intends to ‘monetise its remaining assets and return all net proceeds to shareholders.’
- Leo will pay a $265m dividend in mid-October 2025 followed by a second $65m dividend before year-end.
- Leo had initially intended to find a new asset and remain listed on the ASX, however has no been able to secure an M&A transaction by 3Q25.
- Leo is also looking to monetise its ‘Trailing Product Sales Fee’ on Goulamina, which is a 1.5% GSR capped at 500kt SC.
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 23p, Mkt Cap £62m – Upsize of private placement to C$20m
- Orosur announced yesterday afternoon plans to increase their private placement.
- Gross proceeds raised will be increased from C$15m to C$18m, with an additional C$2m allocated as an option to agents.
- Funds will be used to advance Anzá exploration programmes.
Conclusion: Upsizing of the placing to up to C$20m reflects strong investor appetite for Orosur’s exploration prospects in Colombia. With gold prices testing new highs, Orosur is now well funded to advance Pepas to MRE, currently targeted for December. Scoping Studies are due for 1Q26, with a Feasibility Study targeted for 2Q26 alongside a potential APTA MRE.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 17p, Mkt cap £20m – Moving to enable buybacks and dividends
- Project incubator Power Metal Resources announces a Capital Reduction policy to enable capital returns to shareholders.
- POW intends to seek Shareholder approval to cancel the entire amount standing to the credit of its Share Premium account.
- Under UK regulation, companies are restricted in making shareholder distributions by the sufficiency of distributable reserves.
- By making these changes, Power Metals will gain more flexibility in its ability to pay dividends and conduct buybacks.
Conclusion: It is encouraging to see Power Metals put the necessary procedures in place to enable the return of excess capital to shareholders. The Company made a significant cash return from its spin-out of Guardian Metals. As a result, it has a healthy cash balance through which to pursue both growth opportunities and the return of cash to shareholders via buybacks or dividends.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metal Resources
Sitka Gold (SIG CN) C$0.96, Mkt Cap C$356m – Drilling hits 236m at 1.1g/t from surface in the Yukon
- Canadian gold explorer Sitka, who hold the Rhosgobel discovery in the Yukon, report drilling results.
- Highlights include:
- DDRCRG-25-009: 119m at 1.09g/t Au from 5.4m
- DDRCRG-25-010: 236m at 1.1g/t Au from 5m
- Results pending for 62 holes, with 91 DD now completed.
- Management notes that gold mineralisation remains open in all directions laterally and at depth.
- Company also notes that hole DDRCRG-24-002 was assayed for tungsten, returning an intercept of 76m at 0.132% % WO3, 6.98 m of 0.388% WO3 and 0.61 m of 4.739% WO3
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) HK$29, Mkt Cap HK$745bn – Gold IPO kicks off in bid to raise $3.2bn
- Major Chinese miner Zijin is set to kick off its gold IPO process in Hong Kong.
- The Company is set to issue 349m shares at HK$72, with trading set to begin Sept.29th.
- Zijin Gold:
- 1.5moz Au production in 2024
- 27.5moz in reserves
- 2022-2024 gold production CAGR at 21.4%
- Adj. EBITDA at US$1.4bn in 2024
- Producing Assets:
- Jilau/Taror, Tajikistan (170kozpa, MRE of 3moz)
- Taldybulak Levoberezhny Kyrgyzstan (120kozpa, MRE of 1.7moz)
- Raygorodok, Kazakhstan (192kozpa, MRE of 7.7moz)
- Norton, Australia (266kozpa, MRE of 9.2moz)
- Aurora, Guyana (130kozpa, MRE of 6moz)
- Buritica, Colombia (322kozpa, MRE of 11.7moz)
- Rosebel, Suriname (240kozpa, MRE of 12moz)
- Akyem, Ghana (203kozpa, MRE of 9.5moz)
- Porgera, PNG (Att. 46kozpa, MRE of 4.4moz)
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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