SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 16th September 2025

Gold as Fed rate decision looms and eyes turn to retail sales

China cracks down on coal and steel output as factory deflation eases

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo American (AAL LN) – Collaboration with Codelco to create a world ‘top-ten’ copper mine in Chile

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Drilling campaign at Dokwe, Zimbabwe

East Star Resources (EST LN) – Completion of drilling at Rulikha and Verkhuba, Kazakhstan

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Board reiterates progress following share price volatility

Fuerte Metals (FMT CN) – Acquisition of Newmont’s Coffee project

Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) – New COO appointed to get Mara Rosa back on track

Paladin Energy (PDN AU) – A$300m equity raise to advance Patterson Lake to FID

West Red Lake Gold (WLRG LN) – C$30m raise to advance Madsen Gold Mine

Gold ($3,698/oz) as Fed rate decision looms and eyes turn to retail sales

• Gold prices have risen past record highs, edging towards $3,700/oz.
• Gold has now risen 43% over the past 12 months.
• Central banks started the rally, following the seizure of Russian dollar reserves after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
• This has now extended to a wider rally driven by concerns over the dollar’s status as a reserve currency.
• The dollar index has now fallen back to February 2022 lows on concerns over US growth slowdown and BRIC country fiscal independence from the US and rising debt loads.
• The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bp tomorrow, with focus also on US retail sales.

China cracks down on coal and steel output as factory deflation eases

• Bloomberg reports China steelmaking coal output has fallen yoy for a second month in a row.
• Thermal coal output down 3.2% reflected a combination of government curbs on mining and impacts from heavy rains.
• Steel output has fallen for a fourth month in a row, with production down 0.7% to 77.4mt in August.
• Steelmakers have been focusing on higher margins over higher output since May, lifting iron ore premiums.
• Cement and glass output has also fallen.
• Chinese officials had cracked down on heavy industry in the run-up to a military parade at the start of September.

Trade Live with IG – Rate Cuts, Gold Surge, and a $50B Copper Deal:            https://youtu.be/G8H0zYGf65s?si=L_0EVRawqONI6qw

https://upl.inc/v5ppo7

Economics

Eurozone – Eurozone Industrial Output rises 0.3% mom

• Output was supported by intermediate goods which rose +0.5% mom, capital goods +1.3% mom
• Consumer goods, with durable and non-durable production up 1.1% mom and 1.5% mom respectively.
• Energy output fell -2.9% mom
• ZEW Sentiment Index rose to 26.1 from 25.1
• Current Situation rose 2.4pts to -28.8.

• German manufacturers and traders are working to manage the new US tariff regime
• Now the tariffs have been set manufacturers are returning to more normal activity

Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment rises to 37.3 for September vs from 34.7 in November

• Current Situation index fell to -76.4 from -68.6

UK – Employment falls 8k in August vs July

• Unemployment claims rose 17.4k mom
• Median monthly pay rose 6.6% yoy vs 6.0% in July
• Unemployment rates remains stable at 4.7% for the three months to July
• Average earnings eased slightly to 4.8% from 5.0% but fared slightly better when bonuses are included at 4.7%.
• The rise in National Insurance tax is widely blamed for many job losses.
• While the Bank of England says it will maintain rates this year we suspect they might cut rates particularly if the Fed makes a second 25bp rate cut.

 Currencies

US$1.1792/eur vs 1.1733/eur previous. Yen 146.81/$ vs 147.48/$. SAr 17.352/$ vs 17.337/$. $1.363/gbp vs $1.358/gbp. 0.667/aud vs         0.666/aud. CNY 7.115/$ vs 7.124/$.

Dollar Index 97.05 vs 97.56 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,689/oz vs US$3,644/oz previous

Gold ETFs 94.7moz vs 94.6moz previous

Platinum US$1,405/oz vs US$1,405/oz previous

Palladium US$1,192/oz vs US$1,214/oz previous

Silver US$42.7/oz vs US$42.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,125/oz vs US$7,125/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,125/t vs US$10,077/t previous

Aluminium US$2,702/t vs US$2,685/t previous

Nickel US$15,405/t vs US$15,435/t previous

Zinc US$2,968/t vs US$2,959/t previous

Lead US$2,000/t vs US$2,014/t previous

Tin US$34,720/t vs US$34,960/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$67.2/bbl vs US$67.3/bbl previous

Natural Gas €31.7/MWh vs €32.3/MWh previous

Henry Hub Gas US$3.04/mmBtu vs US$2.96/mmBtu yesterday

• An IEA report estimated average global decline rates of 5.6% for conventional oil output and 6.8% for conventional natural gas, but commented that the natural rate of decline in output is speeding up due to greater reliance on shale and deep offshore resources, with annual oil decline rates accelerating from 4mb/d in 2010 to 5.5mb/d in 2025.
• Chord Energy announced the $550m acquisition of 48,000 net acres in the Williston basin from ExxonMobil, which are expected to add 90 net drilling locations and contribute about 9kboe/d of production (78% oil) at closing.
• Greetings from Accra, where the Morning Energiser is attending Africa Oil Week (AOW) 2025. Please reach out to set up a meeting with David Mirzai while he is in town.

Uranium Futures $75.5/lb vs $75.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$113.3/t vs US$113.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$453.0/t vs US$452.4/t

HCC FOB Australia US$186.5/t v US$186.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$107.0/t vs US$100.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$81,868/t vs US$80,363/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,021/t vs US$9,896/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$810/t vs US$800/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$528/mtu vs US$528/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$271/t vs US$270/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,103/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

 Company news

Anglo American (AAL LN) 2,583p, Mkt Cap £30bn – Collaboration with Codelco to create a world ‘top-ten’ copper mine in Chile

• Anglo American reports that it has reached agreement with Chile’s state-owned copper producer, Codelco, on a definitive plan for the joint development of the adjacent Los Bronces and Andina copper mines.
• The plan, first announced in February, unlocks “an additional 2.7 million tonnes of copper production over a 21-year period once relevant permits are in place, currently expected in 2030”.
• Today’s announcement explains that “additional copper production of c.120,000 tonnes per year is to be shared equally, with c.15% lower unit costs relative to standalone operations and with minimal incremental capital expenditure”.
• The plan “is expected to generate a pre-tax net present value uplift of at least $5 billion, to be shared equally between AAS and Codelco”.
• Joint-development of what seems to be a single orebody held by the two owners seems a pragmatic solution offering benefits to both parties and creating what the announcement describes as a “top 10” global copper mine.
• CEO, Duncan Wanblad, commented that “the collaboration between Anglo American and Codelco … [demonstrates] … what is possible when two leading copper mining companies work together with a shared purpose and commitment to excellence”.
• He expressed appreciation for the support of “our partners in Anglo American Sur – Mitsubishi and Mitsui – without whose support this would not have been possible”.
• Codelco’s Chairman, Máximo Pacheco, said that Codelco and Anglo American “can now maximise the potential of the Andina-Los Bronces mining district without major investments and with significantly greater returns”.
• The agreement follows the recently announced merger with Canada’s Teck Resources to create a copper producer expected to deliver 1.35mtpa of metal by 2027.

Conclusion: Joint development of the Los Bronces and Andina copper mines is expected to deliver an additional ~120ktpa of copper production with lower operating costs and minimal additional capital expenditure by maximising the utilisation of the mineral resource to create one of the world’s 10 largest copper mines and deliver an additional US$5bn of pre-tax NPV

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 1.45p, Mkt Cap £33m – Drilling campaign at Dokwe, Zimbabwe

• Ariana Resources reports plans for an 11,000m campaign of core and reverse-circulation drilling at its Dokwe gold project in Zimbabwe.
• The new drilling, which was discussed at the time of the recent ASX listing and which raised A$11m, “is designed to substantially increase the current … [Pre-feasibility Study] … 1.4Moz Resource and 0.8Moz Reserve … at Dokwe, while also providing additional technical data for the DFS”.
• Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener, explained that open-pit mining at Dokwe at a rate of 125ktpm is expected to “build up a planned annual gold production of at least 60,000 ounces of gold per annum over a thirteen-year mine life, based on the PFS”.
• The new drilling is expected to target “certain corridors which host potential for resource extensions” around the proposed Dokwe Central and Dokwe North pits which have been identified by an “assessment of current exploration data”.
• Ariana Resources acquired its interest in Dokwe through the merger with Rockover Resources in 2024 and has subsequently upgraded the original mineral resources estimate.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that the 23.5% owned “Tavşan Gold Project … [in Türkiye] … is advancing towards production from its heap-leach”.
• Commenting on other projects, the announcement says that Ariana Resources is working with 76% owned Western Tethyan Resources to progress exploration of the Slivova gold project in Kosovo and that its 61% owned Venus Minerals is continuing to explore “a portfolio of copper-gold projects across Cyprus”.

Conclusion: Additional resource expansion drilling is planned at Dokwe.  Successful resource expansion may provide either mine life extension and/or opportunities to expand the planned 60,000oz pa gold production.  We await the drilling results with interest.

East Star Resources (EST LN) 1.9p, Mkt Cap £7.8m – Completion of drilling at Rulikha and Verkhuba, Kazakhstan

• East Star Resources reports the completion of ~2,303m of drilling in nine holes at its Rulikha volcanogenic massive sulphide copper target and its Verkhuba copper deposit in eastern Kazakhstan.
• “Although assay results are pending, East Star is pleased to confirm that all holes have recorded sulphides in the target formations”.
• The company confirms that samples from 5 of the holes have been “sent to the ALS laboratory in Karaganda, Kazakhstan, for assay … [and says that] … the remaining four holes will be sent over in the coming weeks, with assay results expected from the end of Q3 and into Q4 2025”.
• Drilling focussed on the northern end of an induced-polarisation (IP) anomaly at Rulikha (hole RU25-DD001) and on “targeting the central orebody and resource extensions to the shallowest part of the resource model at Verkhuba” as well as an IP anomaly at Talovskoye West.
• East Star Resources’ exploration in Kazakhstan was “initially supported by an initial US$500k grant from BHP Xplor in 2024” and the company says that it is now “planning further exploration work at all three locations, including geophysical surveys and follow-up drilling”.
• A map included in today’s announcement shows a resource at Verkhuba, which is located around 30-40km east of the Rulikha and Talovskoye targets, of a JORC compliant 20mt at an average grade of 1.2% copper, 1.5% zinc and 0.3% lead which the company describes as “amenable to a low capex development”.
• CEO, Alex Walker, said that “In addition to drilling in the East region, East Star has also had field teams out in the Karaganda region, visiting more than 20 targets, prospective for copper/gold porphyry and epithermal gold deposits”.
• Mr. Walker confirmed that “several applications have been lodged as a result of this work … [and also that additional] … work has also been undertaken at the Snowy epithermal gold target, including site visits and sampling by Australian specialists in epithermal gold deposits”.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 38p, Mkt Cap £262m – Board reiterates progress following share price volatility

1. Empire Metals has provided an update following volatility in its stock price.
2. The Board clarifies that ‘there has been no material change to the Company’s operational or financial position to account for this movement,;
3. Management emphasises confidence in progress made at Pitfield and ‘the long-term value proposition for shareholders.’
4. Company highlights the 30^th June cash position of £6.3m.
5. Empire also notes that the Maiden MRE remains on track for release in October 2025.
6. The MRE will then open the door to a Scoping Study.
7. In the meantime, Empire’s technical team is advancing expanding metallurgical testwork programmes as it progresses to continuous pilot-scale operations.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Fuerte Metals (FMT CN) C$1.95, Mkt Cap C$119m – Acquisition of Newmont’s Coffee project

• Fuerte and Newmont have agreed a deal for Coffee in Yukon.
• Fuerte will pay cash consideration of US$10m, US$40m in common and preferred shares and will grant Newmont a 3% NSR, which can be repurchased for US$100m.
• Coffee Heap Leach Project:
  • 80mt at 1.15g/t Au for 3moz Au M&I classification
  • 5:1 strip ratio
  • Recoveries at 86.3% for Oxide, 76.0% for Upper Transition, 54.5% for Middle Transition and 31.4% for Lower Transition
  • Yukon Environmental and Socio-economic Assessment Act 2022
  • PEA due 1H26, FS due 2H26
• Fuerte is run by Tim Warman who held positions Fiore Gold, Continental Gold, Dalradian Resources and Aurelian Resources.
• Fuerte Shareholders pro-forma:
  • Pierre Lassonde: 12%
  • Agnico Eagle: 8%
  • Trinity Capital Partners: 17%
  • Newmont: 27%

Hochschild Mining (HOC LN) 330p, Mkt Cap £1.7bn – New COO appointed to get Mara Rosa back on track

• Hochschild has appointed Cassio Diedrich as Chief Operating Officer.
• Cassio is a mining engineer joining from Vale, Glencore and Kinterra.
• Mara Rosa has been a headache for Hochschild following heavy rainfall disruption and issues with recoveries.
• The Brazilian national will be focused on getting Mara Rosa back on track and advancing Monte do Carmo as a future growth prospect.

Paladin Energy (PDN AU) A$7.9, Mkt Cap A$3.2bn – A$300m equity raise to advance Patterson Lake to FID

• Uranium miner Paladin reports it is raising A$300m gross via a A$231m ASX placement and A$33m TSX bought deal, alongside a A$36mTreasury Share Sale.
• Shares under the ASX placement and SPP will be used at A$7.25/share, and on TSX at C$6.66/share. (c.8% discounts respectively).
• Funds will be used for FEED work over 2026 at the Patterson Lake South Project towards FID.
• Funds will also support permitting approval processes, infill/exploration drilling.
• Working capital will also be used while ramping up LHM into full mining and processing by FY27.
• PLS Project:
  • Reserves at 93.7mlb U3O8 at 1.41% grade.
  • 10 year LOM producing 9.1mlb U3O8 per annum.
  • Recoveries expected at 97%, feeding 1.4% U3O8
  • Pre-production CAPEX at US$1.22bn, SUSEX at US$325m
  • AISC at US$15/lb.
  • First uranium targeted for 2031
  • AT NPV8 US$1.3bn and IRR of 28.2% at $90/lb
• Langer Heinrich FY26 ytd results
  • Produced 727klb U3O8 at plant recoveries of 86%, tonnes processed at 800kt, feed grade of 0.05%
  • C1 costs at US$41/lb

West Red Lake Gold (WLRG LN) C$1.05, Mkt Cap C$367m – C$30m raise to advance Madsen Gold Mine

• West Red Lake, Canadian mine developer, has raised C$30m via a bought deal offering at C$0.95/share.
• Proceeds will be used to complete the ramp-up of operations to commercial production.
• Funds will also be used to accelerate CAPEX projects to support higher production sooner.
• West Red Lake Project:
  • 7-year LOM producing average annual gold of 67.6kozpa
  • Average head grade of 8.2g/t Au at 96% recoveries
  • AISC of US$1,681/oz
  • Post-tax NPV5 of C$315m at US$2,200

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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