SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 10th September 2025

Lithium prices sell off as CATL looks to restart mine early

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Barrick Mining (B US – Reko Diq funding package looms, Nikkei reports

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Updated presentation highlights progress on key workstreams

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – Management emphasises commitment to growth transactions as interims show lower sales volume

Great Southern Copper (GSC LN) – Phase III drilling programme underway to target

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Placing to advance Bill’s Luck Reserve drilling and processing plant construction

Pan African Resources (PAF LN) – Production set to rise on successful Mogale and Tennant commissioning

Lithium prices sell off as CATL looks to restart mine early

• Carbonate prices in China fell 6.3% overnight on reports that CATL is preparing to resume operations at Jianxiawo site.
• Prices had rallied following the mine’s suspension, which triggered optimism over a wave of mine closures across China as part of the ‘anti-involution’ movement.
• This seems to have been a short-term shutdown, however, with Bloomberg reporting mine workers have been recalled.
• Spodumene producers Liontown and Pilbara Minerals fell 18% and 17% respectively overnight, whilst IGO and Albemarle fell 14% and 11% respectively.
• The market had been expecting a period of delayed environmental approvals, with yesterday’s news diminishing the likelihood of this

Iron ore continues march higher on Simandou delay rumours and China demand optimism

• Iron ore climbed to $107/t on SGX yesterday, its highest point since February.
• Chinese analysts are noting a significant rebound in demand coinciding with peak-season inventory restocking.
• Additionally, hopes over US rate cuts have bolstered growth expectations, although this seems less impactful given China’s demand dominance.
• Steel mills had been ordered to cut production in September amid a Beijing military parade, with suggestions they are now catching up on production.
• Iron ore shipments from Brazil Australia to China fell 19%wow, ending a three week downtrend.
• Additionally, shipments from Brazil fell 52%wow to March lows.
• Australian shipments fell 1.8%wow on a drop from Fortescue, although BHP and Rio boosted shipments.

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

The News Forum – The Buck Stops Here: https://www.thenewsforum.ca/series/thebuckstopshere

Economics

China

• CPI falls 0.4%yoy (-0.2% expected)
• Core inflation up 0.9%yoy
• PPI fell 2.9%yoy vs -3.6% in July

Currencies

US$1.1706/eur vs 1.1751/eur previous. Yen 147.43/$ vs 147.26/$. SAr 17.538/$ vs 17.495/$. $1.354/gbp vs $1.356/gbp. 0.661/aud vs         0.660/aud. CNY 7.121/$ vs 7.127/$.

Dollar Index 97.80 vs 97.37 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,646/oz vs US$3,645/oz previous

Gold ETFs 94.6moz vs 94.4moz previous

Platinum US$1,392/oz vs US$1,397/oz previous

Palladium US$1,156/oz vs US$1,146/oz previous

Silver US$41.2/oz vs US$41.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,150/oz vs US$7,150/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,949/t vs US$9,918/t previous

Aluminium US$2,626/t vs US$2,615/t previous

Nickel US$15,140/t vs US$15,175/t previous

Zinc US$2,876/t vs US$2,849/t previous

Lead US$1,976/t vs US$1,986/t previous

Tin US$34,270/t vs US$34,305/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$66.9/bbl vs US$66.7/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were stable after the surprise of Israel’s attack on Hamas’s leadership in Qatar was negated by the API estimating a w/w build of 1.2mb to crude, as well as a 4.6mb draw to gasoline and 1.5mb build to distillate stocks.
• The EIA expects global oil inventory builds will average more than 2mb/d from 3Q25 through 1Q26, before low oil prices in 1H26 lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, moderating inventory build-ups.
• European energy prices were flat as France’s nuclear generation rebounded following last week’s industrial action to 69% of 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €32.9/MWh vs €33.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.5/lb vs $76.8/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$119.0/t vs US$118.9/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$455.5/t vs US$455.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$186.5/t vs US$186.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$104.8/t vs US$107.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,988/t vs US$81,384/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,040/t vs US$10,313/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$840/t vs US$860/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$528/mtu vs US$528/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$405/t vs US$405/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.7/kg vs   US$23.7/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs      US$1,101/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs          US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs   US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Chinese carmakers “in Europe to stay”

• At the Munich IAA Mobility show, Chinese automakers including BYD, SAIC, GAC, and Chery emphasised long-term European ambitions under an “in-Europe, for Europe” strategy.
  • BYD will begin local production at its plant in Hungary by year-end.
  • Xpeng announced that it will be opening an R&D centre in Munich, focusing on building a long-term future in Europe.
  • State-owned luxury brand Hongqi also has plans to release 15 model in Europe by 2028.
• Chinese brands’ share of the European market almost doubled yoy to 4.8% in H1 2025.
• Analysts forecast that Chinese EVs could reach a market share equal to what Japanese and Korean automakers currently
• BYD will manufacture all its EVs for Europe locally by 2028 to avoid EU tariffs, with production starting in Hungary this year and Turkey in 2026. In the short term, PHEVs are expected to lead their European sales mix.

Company news

Barrick Mining (B US) $30, Mkt Cap $50bn – Reko Diq funding package looms, Nikkei reports

• Nikkei reports that Barrick has received loan pledges for $6bn of funding for Reko Diq.
• These funding sources include the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, US Export-Import Bank, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, and Export Development Canada.
• Reko Diq ownership is split 50% Barrick, 25% Pakistan, 15% Govt. of Balochistana dn 10% Balochistan free carried interest.
• The project envisages a 37 year LOM, 3-4 year construction period.
• Phase 1 CAPEX (45mtpa) at $6.6bn, Phase 2 CAPEX (90mtpa) at $3-3.6bn.
• Pakistan and Barrick are expected to jointly provide $3bn, with the rest stemming from external lenders.
• Manara Minerals, Saudi-state backed mining group, pulled out of buying a stake in Reqo Dik.
• Reports suggest the Saudis had initially considered the investment as a gesture of political goodwill, rather than economic viability.

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 10p, Mkt Cap £6m – Updated presentation highlights progress on key workstreams

BUY – 182p NAV

• Beowulf has released an updated presentation, follow the LINK
• The presentation highlights the strong progress made to date at Kallak, as they advance the PFS and Environmental Permit Application.
• Key environmental workstreams including nature values and water baseline studies, hydrogeology, noise, vibration and rock fall and cultural heritage studies are all either complete or substantially complete.
• PFS workstreams complete include metallurgical testwork, infrastructure planning and mineral processing, with waste and water management workstreams alongside logistics and transportation considerations also nearing completion.
• At Grafintec, the PFS is complete and the team is now focused on concluding the EIA, submitting the Environmental Permit application and advancing ongoing discussions with strategic and government funding partners.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining, An SP Angel analyst recently visited Kallak

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) 152p, Mkt Cap £276m – Management emphasises commitment to growth transactions as interims show lower sales volume

• Base metals producer CAML report 1H25 results.
• The Company generated $99.5m in revenue ($102m 1H24).
• Lower revenue reflecs lower sales volume across all metals.
• EBITDA reported at $40m ($52m 1H24).
• Cost of sales increased 14%yoy to $59m on higher Sasa concession fees, higher wages across Kounrad and Sasa and FX changes.
• FCF reported at $16.2m ($30m 1H24).
• CAML held $48m in cash, down from $68m at year-end.
• Cash position boosted post-period by sale of New World Resources shares ($18.7m).
• Copper prices up 3% vs same period last year, whilst zinc up 1%, whilst the Macedonian denar increased USD-denominated costs.
• 1H25 CAPEX reported at $7.4m, with guidance for 2H25 at $11-14m.
• Kounrad:
  • Copper production down to 6.2kt from 6.6kt same period last year.
  • Guidance maintained at 13-14kt for 2025
  • C1 costs at $10.8m vs $11.4m ($0.79/lb vs 0.78/lb last year)
• Sasa
  • Zinc in concentrate produced at 8.7kt (9kt same period last year)
  • Lead in concentrate at 12.6kt (12.9kt last year)
  • Sasa C1 costs at $32m vs $31.2m yoy.
  • On track to meet revised guidance of 17-19kt Zn and 25-27kt Pb
• Capital Returns:
  • CAML has declared a 4.5p/share dividend and initiated a $10m buyback.
  • Total capital return over 1H25 at $21m.
  • Management notes lower dividend reflects ‘an important initial step in bringing future dividend distributions in line with the stated policy of 30-50% of adjusted free cash flow.’

Conclusion: Shares down 11% as market disappointed by lower dividends and sales volumes. EBITDA hit by cost inflation and changes in mining methods at Sasa, alongside a weaker US dollar. CAML’s efforts to buy New World Resources and their Antler project in Arizona failed this summer, with the Company now holding a healthy cash balance and notes they ‘remain as determined as ever to secure a material transaction to grow the business.’

Great Southern Copper (GSC LN) 2.1p, Mkt Cap £14m – Phase III drilling programme underway to target

• Chilean copper explorer Great Southern Copper reports diamond drilling has started at Cerro Negro.
• The programme is the Phase III diamond drilling programme over 2,000m to test extensions of high-grade Cu-Ag results from the previous two phases.
• The programme will focus on priority targets along strike from the Mostaza Mine, looking to extend known mineralisation beneath and along strike.
• Initial drilling will target the extension of hole DD007 which returned:
  • 33m at 1.96% Cu and 61g/t Ag from 87m
• Drilling will also target extensions of DD012 which ended in 3m at 3.4% Cu and 165g/t Ag from 24m.
• Additional drillholes will be used t target geochemical and geophysical targets identified along trend to the south.
• The anomalies run over 1.5km south.
• GSCU is also considering a second drilling rig to keep momentum up across Cerro Negro.

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 1p, Mkt Cap £31m – Placing to advance Bill’s Luck Reserve drilling and processing plant construction

• Kavango Resources has issued 228m new shares at 1p/share to raise £2.2m.
• Major shareholder Purebond Ltd has subscribed for 111.2m new shares.
• Chairman Peter Wynter Bee has subscribed for 10m new shares.
• Kavango is aiming to build and commission 250tpd of processing capacity at Hillside in 1H26.
• Funds will be used to progress this ambition.
• Kavango is advancing resource and grade control drilling at Bill’s Luck in Zimbabwe, aiming to identify three years of mineable reserves.
• Additionally, Kavango is initiating construction of 200tpd CIL processing plant, also at Bill’s Luck.
• Elsewhere, drilling will be progressed at other targets.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango

Pan African Resources (PAF LN) 76p, Mkt Cap £1.5bn – Production set to rise on successful Mogale and Tennant commissioning

• Gold producer Pan African reports revenue of $540m for the year to 30^th June 2025. ($374m 2024)
• Company sold 197koz Au at average gold prices of $2,735/oz, (185koz at $2,000/oz 2024).
• AISC reported at $1,600/oz vs $1,353/oz in 2024.
• EBITDA reported at $227m vs $141m 2024.
• EPS reported at $0.07/share. ($0.04/share 2024)
• Operating cash flow increased $71m to $155m, net cash generated at $64m.
• Net debt rose to $151m, up $41m yoy but fell from $229m at year end.
• CAPEX over the period reported at $162m, down from $166m.
• PAF proposes a $49m dividend for FY25 ($0.021/share) and a $11m buyback.
• PAF is guiding for 275-292koz Au in 2026, at AISC of $1,525-1,575/oz.
• Production increase driven by Mogale and Tenant mines.
• PAF commissioned the 840ktpa CIL plant at Tennant, with steady state production reached in 1QFY26.
• Tennants is expected to produce 50kozpa in FY26 and FY27.
• Mogale Tailings Retreatment operation ramped up and on track for 50koz in FY26.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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