SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 21st August 2025

Gold prices rise ahead of Jackson Hole Powell speech

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) – Progress report on activities in southern Greenland and North Wales

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) – Expansion of processing capacity at the Uis mine, Namibia

Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) SUSPENDED – Environmental license update

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Fundraising for the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 16.7p – Final set of drilling results released ahead of MRE update and FS

SQM (SQM N) – SQM lifts lithium production as prices rise

Versarien* (VRS LN) – Proposed strategic investment in jv company by China’s Anhui BIMT ‘Boundary Innovative Materials Technology’

Gold ($3,341/oz) – Gold prices rise as ahead of Jackson Hole Powell speech

• Putin rejects Ukraine rejects security guarantees
• Israel moves into Gaza City
• Harvard Management adds gold to holdings as it cuts tech
• Retailers build gold inventory in preparation for seasonal buying
• Trump in danger of missing Nobel peace prize date – please just give it to him so we can all move on!

REEs – Permanent magnet exports resume as China eases controls on REEs

• China hit the US and other Western markets hard with its ban on REE metal oxide and magnet exports.
• China’s potential ability to impact drone manufacturing in Ukraine rendered the timing extraordinarily opportunistic.
• Finally the west has realised it is vulnerable to the weaponisation of REEs and other critical materials from China and is taking action.
• Strict export controls on REEs, REE magnets and other REE products has been eased following ongoing negotiations with the US over tariffs.
• China has woken up to the potential for the West to replace Chinese REEs with western production
• China exported 5,577t of permanent magnets in July according to customs data with 2,140t to the EU including 1,116t to Germany.
• Exports to the US were just 619t accounting for 11% of Chinese permanent magnet exports.
• China has also suspended some REE, Lithium and other mines to enforce checks on resources and compliance with submitted mine plans.
• We strongly suspect China will look to better ‘manage’ the production of its identified resources to ensure China does not run short of domestic mine supply for its own industrial growth.
• The IEA forecasts REE demand will grow between 3-7 times by 2040 following a 21% increase from 2020-2023.
• We suspect REE demand growth may even exceed the upper end of the IEA range on extraordinary growth in:
  • Drones – for military and industrial use
  • Electric Vehicles – automated taxis and conventional
  • Robotics – for industrial and domestic use – forecasts are for huge growth once this gets going
    • Domestic robots will be big users of REE permanent magnets
• The International Federation of Robotics reports a 30% increase in sales of service robots worldwide according to the International Federation of Robotics.
• Over 205,000 robots were registered by the IFR ‘International Federation of Robotics’ in 2023 with ~80% made in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Elon Musk forecasts the market will be 1bn robots by 2040 as he ramps up development of his Optimus robot in the US.

Conclusion: Most forecast scenarios are likely to require strong growth in REE production from outside China with China looking to ensure it manages domestic supply to meet internal demand

Tianqi has no plans to shutdown Kwinana Lithium Refinery and open to renegotiating JV terms with IGO

• The Lithium Hydroxide Refinery is owned by Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA) that is a 51/49 Tianqi/IGO JV  (Mining.com).
• TLEA also hold s a 51% stake in the high grade hard rock Greenbushes Lithium Mine with the balance held by Albermarle.
• The refinery has been struggling to ramp up running at 35% in 2QCY25
• IGO in its latest results expressed low confidence in the asset to achieve sustained improvement and fully impaired the value of Train 1 (24ktpa) off its balance sheet.
• IGO guided for 9.0-11.0kt LHM production for FY26, implying just over 40% capacity.
• Tianqi said the Company has no plans to shutdown the refinery adding there is a clear pathway to its full nameplate capacity of 24ktpa.
• Tianqi is prepared to consider any proposals from IGO but said it had not received any so far.
• Tianqi said it would not consider other partners in the Kwinana refiner and the deal will also have to involve the stake in Greenbushes as well.

The News Forum – The Buck Stops Here: https://www.thenewsforum.ca/series/thebuckstopshere

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

True dedication – One of our intrepid analysts is currently visiting a coal mine in Kyrgyzstan while on holiday

• He reports lots of Chinese trucks building roads in the region

Economics

Fed Governor Lisa Cook defied calls from President Trump to resign.

• The call came after Bill Culte, head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, called on the justice department to investigate alleged irregularities in her mortgage applications.
• Pulte said that Cook had “falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favourable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud”.
• “I do intend to take any questions about my financial history seriously as a member of the Federal Reserve and so I am gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts,” Cook replied to allegations.
• Cook is considered a moderate hawk in terms of monetary policy outlook.

Japan

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 49.9/48.9/NA
• Preliminary Services PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 52.7/53.6/NA
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 51.9/51.6/NA

Eurozone

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 50.5/49.8/49.5
• Preliminary Services PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 50.7/51.0/50.8
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 51.1/50.9/50.6

Germany

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 49.9/49.1/48.8
• Preliminary Services PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 50.1/50.6/50.3
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 50.9/50.6/50.2

France

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 49.9/48.2/48.1
• Preliminary Services PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 49.7/48.5/48.5
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 49.8/48.6/48.5

UK

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 47.3/48.0/48.3
• Preliminary Services PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 53.6/51.8/51.8
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Aug/Jul/Est): 53.0/51.5/51.6

Russia/Ukraine – Moscow said it will only agree to security guarantees for Ukraine that give it an effective veto over any future effort to defend Kyiv.

• Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that guarantees should involve Russia as well as China alongside the US, UK and France.
• Ukraine said that it would not accept Russia having the veto to block other countries coming to its defence.
• Kremlin comments add to doubts that on whether President Putin would attend a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart.
• White House earlier indicated that Putin was not against Nato 5-like security guarantees with latest comments suggesting that there might have been a misunderstanding.

Currencies

US$1.1659/eur vs 1.1644/eur previous. Yen 147.58/$ vs 147.56/$. SAr 17.740/$ vs 17.686/$. $1.346/gbp vs $1.350/gbp. 0.642/aud vs 0.644/aud. CNY 7.178/$ vs 7.179/$.

Dollar Index 98.25 vs98.28 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,341/oz vs US$3,325/oz previous

Gold ETFs 92.5moz vs 92.6moz previous

Platinum US$1,333/oz vs US$1,320/oz previous

Palladium US$1,110/oz vs US$1,112/oz previous

Silver US$37.9/oz vs US$37.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,525/oz vs US$7,575/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,690/t vs US$9,689/t previous

Aluminium US$2,573/t vs US$2,565/t previous

Nickel US$14,980/t vs US$14,925/t previous

Zinc US$2,769/t vs US$2,770/t previous

Lead US$1,970/t vs US$1,969/t previous

Tin US$33,700/t vs US$33,760/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$67.4/bbl vs US$66.5/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged higher after the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draws of 6.0mb to crude and 2.7mb to gasoline, offset by a 2.3mb build to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation rose 0.2% to 96.6% on domestic output of 13.4mb/d.
• European energy prices also edged lower as EU natural gas storage levels increased 2% w/w to 74.5% full (vs 82.1% 5-Yr average) with aggregate inventory at 845TWh and all countries now above 65% full.
• Norway’s average July oil production surged 16.8% m/m to 1.81mb/d, the highest level in over a decade, following the ramp-up of Equinor’s new Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea to 220kb/d.

Natural Gas €32.3/MWh vs €31.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $73.2/lb vs $73.2/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$110.4/t vs US$109.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$482.1/t vs US$482.4/t

HCC FOB Australia US$189.8/t vs US$189.8/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$111.0/t vs US$111.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$87,078/t vs US$88,246/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$11,703/t vs US$11,980/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,020/t vs US$1,020/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$503/mtu vs US$493/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.4/kg vs US$23.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$268/t vs US$268/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,094/t vs US$1,093/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Nio hits 9m battery swaps in Shanghai

• EV and battery maker, Nio has reached 9m battery swaps in Shanghai alone.
• Shanghai now has 190 battery swap stations across the city and is Nio’s highest concentration globally.
• In February, CEO William Li noted that Shanghai’s swap operation was nearing breakeven.
• Nio operates over 3,000 swap stations in China, delivering full-charge battery swaps in just 3 minutes.
• CATL plans 1,000 passenger-vehicle swap stations in 2025 and aims for 10,000 by 2028 to serve 1m cars daily.
• CATL is also building 300 truck swap stations and partnering to deploy 100,000 swappable-battery vehicles across fleets.
• Swap tech is seen as complementary to 5-minute fast charging, especially in dense urban areas and for peak load management.
• We have been quietly apprehensive about battery-swap technology, but Chinese are continuing to promote the technology and looking to expand it globally.

Tesla evacuates German factory after battery-processing fire

• Tesla evacuated part of its German plant from Monday after a fire in the battery-processing building.
• No injuries or environmental damage have been reported.
• Tesla have not commented on the incident, first reported in the Handelsblatt newspaper, and the cause of the fire is unknown.

Company news

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) 0.02p, Mkt cap £2.5m – Progress report on activities in southern Greenland and North Wales

• Yesterday, Alba Mineral Resources issued a progress report on its exploration in southern Greenland and its mine development work at the historic Clogau St David mine in North Wales.
• The company reports a successful preparatory blast, last month at the mine, “to clear out a section at the Llechfraith Target on Level 5 which had not been fully cleared out in the last phase in order to allow the next phase of drilling and blasting to commence from a clean face”.
• The next phase is expected to “extract several hundred tonnes of fresh ore from within the projected payshoot … and to process and refine that ore for its gold content”.
• Alba Minerals confirms that a “recent periodic visit by HMIM … [His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Mines] … has recommended certain further assessments and works be completed underground prior to the resumption of further blasting” with the company’s indicative timetable of around one month to complete.
• In Greenland, the company’s exploration team has completed a ground radiometric survey covering the Merino rare-earth minerals prospect at its Motzfeldt niobium/tantalum/zirconium and rare-earths project as well as collecting ~100 samples “for assay, petrography and mineralogy”.
• In addition, the company explains that it intends to “carry out a detailed mineralogical and metallurgical study of the Aries deposit … [located ~1km southeast of Merino at Motzfeldt] … in order to establish the optimal processing routes for Aries material” using a previously obtained 2.5t bulk sample.
• “The Company also intends to commence a Scoping Study or Preliminary Economic Assessment for the Aries Deposit in due course”.
• Commenting on the work in Greenland, Executive Chairman, George Frangeskides said that it would assist in assessing the potential at Merino and he welcomed “the selection of a main consultant to oversee a very detailed mineralogical and metallurgical test work programme, which will in turn feed into a new Scoping Study for Aries”.

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) 3.05p, Mkt Cap £54m – Expansion of processing capacity at the Uis mine, Namibia

• Andrada Mining reports that it has completed the construction of a second processing plant at its Uis mine in Namibia and will now move into the commissioning of the new jig plant during the last week of August.
• The company says that the “Jig Plant is designed for a nameplate capacity of 80 to 100 tonnes per hour, with a potential to process up to 40 000 tonnes of ore per month at a potential recovery rate of 70%… [although the] … Actual operating parameters will be confirmed during the commissioning process”.
• The plant is, initially, expected to treat material “from the Uis proximal pegmatites with grades of between 0.14% and 0.3% tin, and existing stockpiles” but the company has, as announced in June, “also secured an ore supply agreement with Goantagab mining to provide up to 20,000 tonnes of ore at a grade of 1.5% tin”.
• CEO, Anthony Viljoen, described the completion of the plant as “a key milestone towards doubling production”.
• In the FY to 28^th February 2025 the mine produced a total of ~930t of tin in concentrate at a C1 cost of US$21,023/t and all-in-sustaining cost of US$29,755/t as well as 50.6t of tantalum concentrate, containing 5.4t.

Conclusion: The construction of the jig plant at the Uis mine is a key step towards the company’s goal of doubling mine production.

Meteoric Resources (MEI AU) SUSPENDED – Environmental license update

• The Company is in trading halt pending an announcement regarding the environmental license process.
• The announcement relates to the status of municipal meetings held in Caldas, Brazil.
• Trading to resume Monday 25 August latest.

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.03p, Mkt Cap £22m –Fundraising for the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe

• Premier African Minerals reports a subscription to raise £1.38m by the issue of 6bn shares at a price of 0.023p/share.
• We estimate that the shares, which fall “within the Company’s existing share authorities”, represent around 7% of the enlarged company.
• The additional funds will:

• • “fund ongoing refining and optimising of the Primary Flotation Plant”; and
  • “provide funding for the alternative spodumene float plant should this proceed pending the review as announced” yesterday as well as
  • “fund certain operating expenses and debt settlements while the negotiations outlined in the previously announced non-binding letter of interest” with a “a large trading house” for a possible spodumene concentrate offtake agreement which was also disclosed in yesterday’s announcement.

• CEO, George Roach, said that “We are very pleased to have completed this capital raise at a price representing a significant premium to our last funding round, and see this as clear recognition of the progress we are making”.
• In June, the company raised £1.575m via the issue of 13,125m shares at a price of 0.012p/share.

Conclusion: Following yesterday’s announcement of the latest phase of pilot-plant testing at its Zulu lithium plant in Zimbabwe, the company is raising additional funds for the continuing plant optimisation and a possible secondary flotation plant.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 3.8p, Mkt Cap £81m – Final set of drilling results released ahead of MRE update and FS

BUY – 16.7p

• The Company released the final set of drilling results from the Phase 2 programme at the Barroso Lithium Project, Portugal.
• The fourth and final batch covered 23 holes including 9 at Pinheiro, 8 at Reservatorio and 6 at Grandao.
• At Pinheiro (2mt at 1.0% Li2O MRE) selected results included:
  • 67m @1.82% Li2O from 56m in hole 25PNRDD021
  • 32m @1.66% Li2O from 27m in hole 25PNRRC036
  • 24m @1.4% Li2O from 111m in hole 25PNRRC039
  • 28m @1.13% Li2O from 32m in hole 25PNRRC040
• The Company expects to significantly increase the size and grade of the resource.
• At Reservatorio (4.2mt at 0.9% Li2O MRE) selected results included:
  • 32m @1.49% Li2O from 67m in hole 25RESRC087
  • 25m @1.11% Li2O from 75m in hole 25RESRC088
  • 23.31m @1.29% Li2O from 64m in hole 25RESRC086 and 11.74m @1.24% Li2O from 106.74m
• Latest drilling intersected extensions of the mineralisation beyond the C-100 Mining License with an application to growth the license area submitted.
• Dip of the mineralisation is also seen to be shallowed at depth helping to reduce the amount stripping needed in open pit operations.
• At Grandao (17.7mt at 1.0% Li2O MRE) selected intersections included:
  • 19m @1.29% Li2O from 92m in hole 25GRARC153 and 13.8m @1.41% Li2O from 139.2m
  • 17.68m @1.42% Li2O from 104.05m in hole 25GRARC152 and 12.64m @1.12% Li2O from 140.36m and 9m @1.53% Li2O from 156m
• Drilling tested mineralisation extension at depth with grades seen to increase with depth while also intersecting a smaller parallel pegmatite below the main orebody.
• All Phase 2 assay data (103 holes for ~12,500m) has now been entered into the geological model with updated MRE targeted for September.
• Guidance is for both expansion and upgrade of the existing MRE.
• An increase in tonnage is expected at Reservatorio and Pinheiro.
• Updated MRE to be used for the FS mine plan and maiden reserves.
• The Company will also release an updated Exploration Target highlighting true exploration potential at the Barroso Lithium Project.

Conclusion: The Company released all assay results of the Phase 2 drilling programme confirming continuity and grade of lithium mineralisation ahead of MRE update targeted for September. The update will increase the confidence of the resource for inclusion into the mine plan and maiden reserves to be released with the DFS (exp. 2HCY25). Expect growth in total resource as well while the release of an updated Exploration Target to point to further expansion potential.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

SQM (SQM N) US$44.4, Mkt cap US$12.5bn – SQM lifts lithium production as prices rise

• SQM sales fell 19% in Q2 to $1,037m vs $1,085m in Q1 on low lithium prices through the quarter
• Gross profit fell 28% to $305m vs $369m in Q1
• SQM plans to raise production by 10% this year.
• The group forecasts demand growth of about 17% this year.
• SQM’s Kwinana refinery jv in Australia hit commercial production in July with nameplate capacity of 50,000tpa lithium hydroxide targeted by end-2026.
• Management are forecast capex at $750m this year raising capacity to 240,000t of lithium carbonate in 2026 and 100,000 tons of hydroxide by end-2025

Versarien* (VRS LN) 0.014p, Mkt Cap £721m – Proposed strategic investment in jv company by China’s Anhui BIMT ‘Boundary Innovative Materials Technology’

• The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster has now ruled against the acquisition and use of Versarien assets by the proposed jv company with China’s Anhui BIMT ‘Boundary Innovative Materials Technology’ on the grounds of maintaining the security of know-how and intellectual property relating to the production and use of graphene with dual-use applications.
• The proposed strategic investment had been delayed under the UK NSIA ‘National Security and Investment Act’and Chinese Outbound Direct Investment including a pending decision from the Investment Screening Unit in relation to a jv company.
• The purpose of any joint venture with BIMT will involve the import of BIMT’s graphene, carbon nanotubes and silicon-carbon anode materials to the UK for sale, with a particular focus on electric vehicle and other battery technologies, technical support and research and development of new nanomaterial enhanced composite products for the automotive sector.
•  The strategic investment also remains subject to clearance under Chinese Outbound Direct Investment regulations.
• Further announcements will be made in due course as appropriate.
• Pipeline of commercial opportunities currently stands at £2.1m

Conclusion: A severe lack of investment in smaller companies and in innovative UK materials technology is leaving the door wide open for better funded and often state supported overseas companies to snap up UK expertise in innovation. Long-suffering and supportive shareholders of Versarien will be more than justified in complaining at the issues which are causing ongoing underinvestment in UK small caps and innovative UK-invented technologies.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Versarien

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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