SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 15th August 2025

China cutting oversupply to end deflation in raw material costs

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – MoU with stealth-stage, machine learning start-up in advanced computational modelling for mineral exploration

EQ Resources (EQR AU) – US$7.5m royalty on Saloro tungsten mine

Sigma Lithium* (SGML US) – Quarterly loss booked on lower sales volumes and lithium prices

Snowline Gold (SGD CN) – C$80m underwritten equity raise

SolGold (SOLG LN) – Potential for near-surface copper starter pit at Tandayama América draws closer to reality

China cutting oversupply to end deflation in raw material costs

• Some critical metals have had a good week as Rare Earths, Lithium, Tungsten, all continue to climb.
• China has been seen curtailing production of Rare Earth, Lithium and coal mines with prices rising for REEs and lithium.
• NdPr prices have risen by 28% to US$74,970/t in the last month
• Lithium carbonate prices have risen 20% to US$11,416/t mom
• Spodumene Li2O prices have risen 15% to US$930/t mom
• Tungsten APT 88.5% prices have risen 35% mom
• We believe China Inc is looking to raise margins within SMEs and parra-statal companies to enable wage growth and greater consumption within its economy
• A near-deflationary environment where food prices have depressed inflation to zero and near zero numbers enables policymakers to allow input raw materials prices.
• We believe China has room to allow raw materials prices to rise so long as this feeds into wage growth for domestic consumption.
• China Inc’s drive to reduce energy costs across the nation will also offset substantial raw material price increases
• The impact of rising raw materials / metals prices on the West, which already has significant inflation, will be of greater concern to western Central Bankers who are looking for opportunities to cut rates.
• China appears to have room to absorb these price rises while Western manufacturers might struggle against a backdrop of other inflationary pressures.

The News Forum – The Buck Stops Here: https://www.thenewsforum.ca/series/thebuckstopshere

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

Economics

US – Producer prices inflation blew through market forecasts leading investors to reduce their expectations for a rate cut in Septmber.

• Odds of a rate cut fell to ~85% from more than 100% before the announcement.
• Stronger PPI indicate some inflationary pressures from White House tariffs’ policies.
• Yields on 2y and 10y debt rose sharply along the US$ index.
• PPI (%mom, Jul/Jun/Est): 0.9/0.0/0.2
• PPI (%yoy, Jul/Jun/Est): 3.3/2.4(revised from 2.3)/2.5
• Core PPI (%yoy, Jul/Jun/Est): 3.7/2.6/3.0

China – Soft economic data out this morning reinforcing the case for more stimulus form Beijing.

• Consumer spending, industrial production and investment growth rates are lower and below estimates.
• Property market remained weak with both home prices and real estate investment recording an accelerated contraction.
• Retail Sales (%yoy, Jul/Jun/Est): 3.7/4.8/4.6
• Industrial Production (%yoy, Jul/Jun/Est): 5.7/6.8/6.0
• FAI (YTD, Jul/Jun/Est): 1.6/2.8/2.7
• Property Investment (YTD, Jul/Jun/Est): -12.0/-11.2/-11.4
• New Home Prices (%mom, Jul/Jun/Est): -0.31/-0.27/NA

Russia/Alaska – Two delegations headed by President Trump and President Putin to meet later today to discuss a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.

Japan – Stronger than expected growth in 2Q25 led by domestic demand raises chances for a rate hike again this year.

• A surprising outcome given all the uncertainty regarding US import tariffs.
• Consumer spending also came in ahead of expectations helped by solid wage gains from this year’s pay negotiations.
• The yen climbed >0.6% this morning.
• 2Q25 GDP (%qoq annualised, Curr/Prev/Est): 1.0/0.6(revised from -0.2)/0.4
• 2Q25 Private Consumptions (Curr/Prev/Est): 0.2/0.2(revised from 0.1)/0.1
• 2Q25 Business Spending (Curr/Prev/Est): 1.3/1.0(revised from 1.1)/0.7

Currencies

US$1.1676/eur vs 1.1682/eur previous. Yen 147.13/$ vs 146.39/$. SAr 17.555/$ vs 17.572/$. $1.355/gbp vs $1.358/gbp. 0.651/aud vs 0.654/aud. CNY 7.183/$ vs 7.173/$.

Dollar Index 97.97 vs 97.85 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,345/oz vs US$3,353/oz previous

Gold ETFs 92.5moz vs 92.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,365/oz vs US$1,341/oz previous

Palladium US$1,143/oz vs US$1,139/oz previous

Silver US$38.0/oz vs US$38.4/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,500/oz vs US$7,400/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,757/t vs US$9,764/t previous

Aluminium US$2,616/t vs US$2,614/t previous

Nickel US$15,065/t vs US$15,150/t previous

Zinc US$2,826/t vs US$2,817/t previous

Lead US$1,988/t vs US$1,982/t previous

Tin US$33,440/t vs US$33,620/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$66.5/bbl vs US$66.0/bbl previous

1. Energy prices were subdued ahead of today’s summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
2. US Henry Hub natural gas prices remain below $3/mmBtu after the EIA reported a 56bcf w/w build to 3,186bcf (+54bcf exp), with storage inventories 2.4% below last year and 6.6% above the 5-year average and LNG pipeline deliveries rising 0.9bcf/d w/w to 16.8bcf/d.

Natural Gas €32.2/MWh vs €32.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $72.6/lb vs $72.5/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$110.3/t vs US$111.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$481.5/t vs US$481.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$190.5/t vs US$190.8/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$109.5/t vs US$111.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$74,970/t vs US$74,310/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$11,416/t vs US$11,363/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$930/t vs US$905/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$483/mtu vs US$473/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.4/kg vs US$23.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$275/t vs US$275/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,093/t vs US$1,094/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Global EV sales growth slows in July

• Global EV sales rose 21% yoy in July, the slowest rate since January and down from 25% in June. (Rho Motion)
• China accounted for around 1m of those sales, but its growth slowed to 12%, down from a 36% average in H1.
• The slowdown in China was driven by weaker plug-in hybrid performance, amid a temporary pause in government subsidies and growth is expected to rebound in August as subsidies return.
• Europe saw EV sales grow 48% to ~390,000 units; North America rose 10% to over 170,000; rest of world surged 55% to 140,000+.
• Despite regional fluctuations, long-term EV adoption trend remains strong.

UK approved record BESS capacity in July

• UK councils granted planning consent in July for over 5GW of new grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS), equivalent to 10.5GWh capacity.

• This takes the UK’s total approved (but not yet operational) BESS pipeline to 69GW/144MWh.

• However, only 35MW/70MWh became operational in July, bringing the UK’s total operational grid-scale BESS to 6.99GW/10.2GWh.

Company news

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 39.9p, Mkt Cap £5.1m – MoU with stealth-stage, machine learning start-up in advanced computational modelling for mineral exploration

(Rio Tinto jv has the option to invest US$7.5m in two stages to earn up to 75% in the HCK lithium and tantalum hard rock prospect in Rwanda)

(Rwanda: Aterian holds an effective 100% stake in the Musasa Mining Licenses plus a 70% interest in Kinunga Mining Limited which holds the HCK licence alongside HCK Mining Company Limited which has a 30% interest.) (Botswana: Aterian also holds a 90% in Atlantis Metals which holds its licenses in Botswana). (Morocco: Aterian holds 100% on all licenses held in Morocco)

• Aterian plc report the signing of an MoU with MLS, a stealth-stage, machine learning start-up specialising in advanced computational modelling for mineral exploration.
• Aterian and MLS will collaborate on a multi-phase pilot programme applying multimodal, explainable network inference technology starting with Aterian exploration data in Morocco.
• Phase 1 will use historical exploration data from Morocco to develop and back-test a machine learning model to identify promising drill targets.
• The idea is for a significant reduction in drilling requirements while maintaining or improving resource estimation confidence.
• Phase 2, subject to the successful completion of Phase 1 and agreement on commercial terms, will adapt the model to planned future exploration across Aterian’s portfolio of pipeline projects, delivering significant cost savings and accelerating discovery timelines.
• The machine learning algorithms have been developed by a team with expertise in geophysics, artificial intelligence, and energy transition infrastructure.
• The idea is to “enhance exploration efficiency, reduce costs, and mitigate project development risks.”

Conclusion: Aterian has allot of data from its exploration licenses in Morocco. The application of a machine learning program is likely to throw up some interesting ideas and should help to optimise future drill targets for more cost-effective exploration.

We like the use of machine learning (AI) as a tool which gives alternative ideas from the processing of more information than a single person can handle.

We can also see how specialist AI models which can reference regional geological data might produce some very interesting ideas.

Many mineral discoveries are often represented by relatively simple geological models though their discovery often requires a great deal of expertise, insight and luck.

Adding substantial data into an AI model with substantial processing power increases the opportunity for discovery but the analysis of the ideas will still require a great deal of geological skill.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

EQ Resources (EQR AU) A$0.036, Mkt cap A$112m – US$7.5m royalty on Saloro tungsten mine

• EQ Resources reports the completion and receipt of an initial US$7.5m royalty payment from Oaktree for a 2.5% royalty on the Barruecopardo mine in Salamanca, Spain.
• Cronimet Asia which is an offtaker for Mt Carbine has also agreed to convert US$3m of its initial offtake prepayment to equity at A$0.035/s

Sigma Lithium* (SGML US) 5.7, Mkt Cap US$629m – Quarterly loss booked on lower sales volumes and lithium prices

• The Company released a quarterly update for its Grota do Cirilo Lithium Mine, Brazil.
• Production 68.4kt SC5.2 (2Q24: 49.4 SC5.5).
• Sales 40.3kt (1Q25: 52.6kt).
• Gross revenues and net sales at US$21.1m and $16.9m (2Q24: $53.2m and $45.9m).
• That would imply ~$524/SC realised price and $419/SC post provisional pricing adjustments (2Q24: $1,320/SC and $1,139/t).
• CIF China cash cost $442/SC, below $500/t target.
• AISC cash cost $594/SC, below $660/t target.
• $107m Phase 2 expansion (extra 250kt SC5.5) remains on the cards with ramping up planned for 2026.
• EBITDA -$16.9m (2Q24: 8.6m).
• Net Loss -$18.9m (2Q24: -$10.8m).
• 1H25 EBITDA -$6.9m (1H24: $11.7m).
• 1H25 FCF-$15.2m.
• Net debt stood at $156.6m including closing cash $15.1 and $171.7m in outstanding debt (incl leases) (Dec24: $130.9m net debt incl $45.9m cash and $176.8m debt).

*SP Angel analysts hold shares in Sigma Lithium

Snowline Gold (SGD CN) C$9.3, Mkt Cap C$1.5bn – C$80m underwritten equity raise

• The Company is raising C$80m in underwritten equity raise at C$9.0 to progress development of the Valley Gold Deposit, Yukon.
• In addition, underwriters will be granted an option to acquire additional 1.3m shares for extra C$12.0m over 30 days following the closing.
• The placing price implies little discount to the last closing price of C$9.3.
• Proceeds to be used to advance its exploration projects in the Yukon Territory.
• The Valley Gold Project hosts 7.9moz at 1.21g/t in M&I resource and 0.9moz at 0.62g/t in Inferred.
• 2025 PEA released this June envisaged:
  • 20y LOM producing ~6.8moz
  • OP/CIL 8.5mtpa mill, WO 1.09:1
  • 544kozpa at US$569/oz AISC first 5y
  • 341koz at $844/oz AISC LOM
  • C$1.7bn development capex
  • NPV5 AT and IRR AT $3.4bn and 25.0% @$2,150/oz (C$6.8bn and 37% @$3,150/oz)

SolGold (SOLG LN) 14.58p, Mkt Cap £431m – Potential for near-surface copper starter pit at Tandayama América draws closer to reality

• SolGold report the discovery of copper at Tandayama América in Ecuador startging at just 8m below surface.

1. The results show a substantial intercept of:
   • 140m grading @ 0.92% CuEq from 8m, inc. 106m @ 1.10% CuEq from 22m in drill hole TAD-58
2. The discovery is important as it could lead to the delineation of a starter pit to accelerate cash flow and justify the construction of infrastructure and a process plant well ahead of the completion of the much larger and deeper Cascabel copper project.
3. Mineralisation is reported to remain open at depth
   • “Integration with Alpala underground development remains central to SolGold’s staged production plan”
4. The Tandayama-Ameríca prospect should help de-risk and kickstart the development of Cascabel
5. TAD-25-058 (Pit 2):
   • 140 m @ 0.92 % CuEq (0.41 % Cu, 0.59 g/t Au) from 8 m, inc. 106 m @ 1.10 % CuEq from 22 m
     1. Plus 50 m @ 0.49 % CuEq from 250 m; mineralisation open at depth
6. TAD-25-055 (Pit 2): from same collar as hole 58 and is seen as an extension of the mineralisation seen in hole 58
   • 58 m @ 0.29 % CuEq (0.17 % Cu, 0.14 g/t Au) from 6 m, including
   • 6 m @ 0.33 % CuEq (0.18 % Cu, 0.18 g/t Au) from 6m,
   • 24 m @0.36 % CuEq (0.21 % Cu, 0.17 g/t Au) from 40
7. TAD-25-056 (Pit 1):
   • 280 m @ 0.32 % CuEq (0.21 % Cu, 0.13 g/t Au)
8. Oher completed holes: Assays pending
   • TAD-57,
   • TAD-59,
   • TAD-60,
   • TAD-61
9. Drilling is focusing on the potential development of a resource which is sufficient in scale and shape to justify an open cast operation close to the much larger proposed Cascabel mine site.
10. Tandayama remains entirely conceptual as an open-pit with just 10 holes (3,398m) drilled.
11. Assays from four holes are pending with another eight holes (1,869m) planned.

Conclusion: We have always said the future of the Cascabel mine depends on the discovery of a near-surface starter pit in the Cascabel area. While this is equivocally proven as yet, this concept is drawing closer to reality on successive assays.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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