Copper prices continue pull back following Trump tariff news
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Aura Energy* (AURA LN) – Offtake and spot sales agreements as FID looms
Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) – Guidance revised lower alongside ore reserves
Galan Lithium (GLN AU) – A$2m equity raise
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) – Quarterly results as focus on dewatering Kakula
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Newmont stake sold to institutional investors
Syrah Resources (SYR AU) – A$70 equity placing
Vale* (VALE US) – Quarterly sales fall 11% yoy on lower iron ore shipments and prices
Copper US$9,622/t – prices continue pull back following Trump tariff news
- Metals traders are reassessing their copper trades following news of 0% tariffs on refined copper imports into the US.
- Short-term sentiment is negative. The market is wary of traders who may have leveraged positions on physical copper in the US ahead of the tariff announcement.
- Physical stocks almost always sell at premiums in local market but any traders looking to offload metal in the short term may have to accept losses on the trade.
- Warehouses were already full of physical copper in New Orleans and other locations waiting for the tariff news.
- Metal stored in port locations may more easily flow to Europe and HK if the arbitrage on physical copper
- While Trump tariffs have disrupted global trade, news of 0% tariffs on copper feels like positive news for US industry.
- We expect US manufacturing to look to add production capacity in copper products and copper intensive goods such as air-conditioners.
- The net overall impact should, in time, be positive for copper consumption as Chinese manufacturers develop new demand in other markets.
The White House met last week with top technology and recycling companies discussing options to ramp up production of permanent magnets. (Mining.com)
- Peter Navarro, an administration trade advisor, led the meeting telling attendees that the US plans a major push to increase domestic production of the minerals.
- Possible incentives included guarantees of minimum prices to producers similar to the one agree between the DoD and MP Materials.
- “The MP rare earths deal is an essential part of an overall strategy to onshore critical minerals of which rare earths is just one part,” Navarro said in a statement released Thursday by the White House.
- “Our goal is to build out our supply chains from mines to end use products across the entire critical mineral spectrum, and the companies assembled at the meeting have the potential to play important roles in this effort.”
- Possible recycling options were discussed as a facility reprocessing and recovering magnet material from spent equipment can be brought online faster than mining projects.
- Offiicials discussed a potential bank on exports of electronic waste keeping material for recycling in the US.
- Currently magnet recycling is a niche market accounting for <5% of total supply and is predominantly carried in China.
- Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) is set to benefit from growing interest in securing ex China sources of RE and permanent magnets.
- The Company is commercialising HPMS magnet recycling technology to produce sintered magnets from scrap ramping up commercial scale facilities in the UK and preparing to launch production in Germany (2025) and the US (2027); upstream and midstream parts of the business are represented by the Songwe Hill Mining Project in Malawi and Pulawy Separation Facility Project in Poland.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Mkango
Gold ($3,292/oz) treads water as dollar marches higher
- Gold prices are struggling to climb past the key $3,300/oz mark, having flatlined for the past three months.
- The metal is coming under pressure again as the dollar continues to climb from its recent lows.
- The dollar index has now broken through 100, having bottomed at 96.7 in July.
- Focus now turns to today’s NFP data, which should provide further clues as to the health of the US economy.
US Tariffs – White House full list of US tariffs
IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A: https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.74% | at | 44,131 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.66% | at | 40,800 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -0.85% | at | 24,562 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.37% | at | 3,560 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.2 | at | 4.39 |
Economics
US administration announced a series of new tariffs on countries that have not agreed a deal.
- In particular, tariffs on imports from Canada were increased to 35% from 25%.
- A series of south eastern nations are facing charges of ~20%.
- Negotiations with China continue with both nations agreeing to potentially extend a 90-day tariff truce earlier this week.
- Current trade dispute pause expires on August 12 that may see tariffs increase back up to triple digits.
- Estimates suggest that announced duties would increase the average US duty to 15.2% from 2.3% in 2024.
- Bloomberg estimates that tariffs may cost US GDP 1.8% and increase prices by 1.1% over two to three years.
NFPs are due later today with expectations for a drop in new jobs (104k v 147k June), a slight increase in unemployment rate (4.2% v 4.1%) and stronger growth in wages (3.8% v 3.7%).
China – Private manufacturing sector slipped into a contraction for the second month in the last three.
- New export orders recorded a steeper contraction falling for a fourth straight month.
- Lower production led to a drop in headcount while firms lowered selling prices again.
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul/Jun/Est): 49.5/50.4/50.2
El Salvador – Legislative assembly voted to remove term limits for the presidency allowing current leader, Nayib Bukele, to remain in the role indefinitely.
Currencies
US$1.1420/eur vs 1.1442/eur previous. Yen 150.56/$ vs 149.48/$. SAr 18.230/$ vs 18.003/$. $1.320/gbp vs $1.325/gbp. 0.643/aud vs 0.646/aud. CNY 7.210/$ vs 7.193/$.
Dollar Index 99.98 vs 98.72 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$3,287/oz vs US$3,302/oz previous
Gold ETFs 91.7moz vs 91.6moz previous
Platinum US$1,269/oz vs US$1,314/oz previous
Palladium US$1,193/oz vs US$1,222/oz previous
Silver US$36.4/oz vs US$37.0/oz previous
Rhodium US$7,000/oz vs US$7,475/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$9,622/t vs US$9,616/t previous
Aluminium US$2,570/t vs US$2,584/t previous
Nickel US$14,900/t vs US$14,935/t previous
Zinc US$2,739/t vs US$2,766/t previous
Lead US$1,964/t vs US$1,973/t previous
Tin US$32,895/t vs US$32,715/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$71.6/bbl vs US$73.2/bbl previous
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices remain subdued after the EIA reported a 48bcf w/w build to 3,123bcf, with storage inventories 3.8% below last year and 6.7% above the 5-year average and LNG pipeline deliveries falling 0.8bcf/d w/w to 15.4bcf/d.
Natural Gas €35.0/MWh vs €34.1/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $71.5/lb vs $71.1/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$109.0/t vs US$109.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$471.4/t vs US$470.9/t
HCC FOB Australia US$187.0/t vs US$177.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$117.5/t vs US$117.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$73,427/t vs US$73,893/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,503/t vs US$9,579/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$815/t vs US$815/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$443/mtu vs US$443/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.9/lb vs US$4.9/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.7/kg vs US$23.7/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$274/t vs US$282/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,091/t vs US$1,091/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg
EV & battery news
China NEV retail sales reach 789,000 in early July figures
- Passenger NEV retail sales reached 789,000 units during 1–27 July period, up 15% yoy but down 17% from June.
- Cumulative NEV retail figures, for 2025 so far, climbed 31% to 6.26m units.
- Overall passenger-vehicle retail sales stood at 1.45 m units, giving NEVs a 54.6 % share in that period and 50.68 % year-to-date.
- Since January, total passenger-vehicle retail sales have reached 12.35m units in China, up 11% yoy, while wholesale volumes have grown 13% to 14.78m units.
Tesla sales drop again in Sweden, Denmark and France
- Tesla’s July registrations fell for a seventh straight month in three of its biggest markets, extending a downward run that began in January.
- Sales tumbled 86% year on year to 163 cars in Sweden, 52% to 336 in Denmark and 27% to 1,307 in France.
- Model Y demand was especially weak, with registrations down 88% in Sweden and 49% in Denmark.
- Overall car sales slid 8% in France but grew 20 % in Denmark and 6% in Sweden, underscoring Tesla’s under-performance.
- Backlash to Elon Musk’s politics, tougher EU self-driving rules and rising competition from Chinese EVs continue to weigh on the brand.
- A revamped Model Y is rolling out, and a cheaper model should follow next quarter, yet Musk has warned investors of “rough quarters” ahead.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | -0.1% | -3.9% | Freeport-McMoRan | 2.8% | -9.7% |
| Rio Tinto | -0.7% | -6.7% | Vale | -1.0% | -6.8% |
| Glencore | -0.4% | -4.7% | Newmont Mining | -0.3% | 1.0% |
| Anglo American | -0.9% | -7.3% | Fortescue | 1.2% | -2.0% |
| Antofagasta | -0.8% | -7.5% | Teck Resources | 1.0% | -6.3% |
Company news
Aura Energy* (AURA LN) 7.4p, Mkt Cap £70m – Offtake and spot sales agreements as FID looms
- Mauritanian uranium developer Aura reports an offtake agreement for its Tiris Uranium Project.
- The Compay has two agreements for the sale of uranium oxide concentrate to a US nuclear utility and a spot sales agreement with a global uranium trading group.
- The offtake agreement is contracted at market related pricing within a collar price structure.
- The contracted volume accounts for 10% of Tiris’ projected output between 2028-2031.
- The offtake is subject to project financing and an FID by 31st December 2025.
- The spot sales agreement enables discretionary spot sales of UOC, delivered to conversion facilities in France, Canada and the US.
Conclusion: These agreements validate the credibility of Aura’s Tiris Uranium Project and highlight sustained demand for new supply of uranium from utilities and industry participants. We look forward to further updates on financing discussions as Aura works to bring Tiris into production.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Aura Energy
Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) A$0.78, Mkt Cap A$1bn – Guidance revised lower alongside ore reserves
- Australian gold producer Bellevue has updated FY26 production guidance:
- FY26: 130-150koz at AISC of A$2,600-A$2,900/oz.
- FY26 growth CAPEX at A$80-90m.
- FY27: 175-195koz
- FY25 gold produced at 126koz at AISC of A$2,422/oz.
- Bellevue had previously guided FY26 at 150koz production with FY27-29 ramping up to 190kozpa.
- Additionally, Bellevue updated ore reserve to 1.3moz at 4.7g/t Au from 1.5moz at 5g/t Au in FY25 following depletion.
- Bellevue has also sold 152koz forward over the next three years at an average price of $2,843/oz.
- Company holds A$152m in cash, $100m in debt (exc. hedging)
- Bellevue is also considering a paste plant, with FID due FY26.
Galan Lithium (GLN AU) A$0.14, Mkt Cap A$130m – A$2m equity raise
- The Company raised A$2m using the at-the-market subscription agreement with Acuity Capital.
- Issue price was A$0.13 representing a 1.5% discount to the last traded price.
- Proceeds will be used for working capital needs and ongoing development works at the Hombre Muerto West Lithium Project in Argentina.
- The Company is awaiting a shareholder approval regarding the proposed A$20m equity investment by The Clean Elements Fund, an existing shareholder, which is scheduled for 22 August.
- HMW is expected to produce first lithium chloride concentrate in 1H26 from its Phase 1 (5.4ktpa LCE 6% LiCl).
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) C$11, Mkt Cap C$14.7bn – Quarterly results as focus on dewatering Kakula
- DRC copper producer Ivanhoe reports 2Q25 results.
- Kamoa Kakula produced 112kt Cu over the quarter, selling at an average price of $4.34/lb.
- C1 costs reported at $1.89/lb.
- Kamoa revenue reported at $875m, EBITDA at $325m, with Ivanhoe generating $128mof attributable EBITDA.
- Kamoa Kakula Guidance for 2025 revised to:
- 370-420kt Cu (from 520-580kt)
- C1 costs revised to $1.9-2.2/lb (from 1.65-1.85/lb)
- CAPEX guidance to $1.42-1.60bn from $1.42-1.67bn
- Revised Kakula production guidance as Stage Two dewatering beginning.
- Kipushi EBITDA reported at $9m for the quarter, producing 42kt of Zn.
- Kipushi debotllenecking programme near complete, with processing rates set to climb 20%.
- Net debt reported at $1.2bn.
Orosur Mining* (OMI LN)11p, Mkt Cap £33m – Newmont stake sold to institutional investors
- Orosur reports that Newmont has sold a 9.4% stake in Orosur shares.
- Newmont sold the stake at C$0.19/share to ‘several institutional investors.’
- Newmont has been undertaking a large-scale divestment programme of non-core assets.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining
Syrah Resources (SYR AU) A$0.27, Mkt Cap A$283m – A$70 equity placing
- The Company is raising A$70m at A$0.26 to fund Vidalia AAM Facility operating costs, US DOE loan reserves and general working capital.
- The placing price represents a ~32% discount to the last closing price.
- Additionally, the US DOE agreed to enter into a forbearance agreement and not enforce remedies for a period of two yeas from 30 July 2025.
- DOE will also defer US$16m in quarterly principal and interest payments to the maturity date in April 2032.
- US International Development Finance Corporation has also extended a waiver of the events of default under the DFS loan.
- Further DFC loan drawdowns are available to fund working and sustaining capital of Balama operations.
Vale* (VALE US) $9.5., Mkt Cap $43bn – Quarterly sales fall 11% yoy on lower iron ore shipments and prices
- Vale reports revenue of $8.8bn over the quarter, adj. EBITDA of $3.4bn.
- Revenue down 11%yoy, Adj. EBITDA down 15%yoy but up 9%qoq.
- Free cash flow reported at $1bn, supported by working capital variation.
- Net income down 24%yoy to $2bn.
- Net debt increased 41%yoy to $12.1bn.
- CAPEX over the quarter reported at $1.05bn.
- Operations:
- Iron ore shipments down 3%yoy whilst copper and nickel sales up 17% and 21% respectively.
- Average iron ore fines price at $85/t, down 6%qoq and 13%yoy.
- Iron ore fines’ C1 cost down 11%yoy at $22/t.
- Iron ore all-in costs down 10% to $55/t, with copper at $1,450/t.
- Revising copper all-in costs to $1,500-2,000/t from $2,800-3,300/t on higher gold prices.
*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Vale
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street
London, W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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