SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 25th July 2025

Lithium spodumene prices 34% on month rise as China crackdown on Lithium mines cuts production

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This note was crafted by humans, helped by AI

Aston Bay Holdings (BAY CN) – Prospective copper gossans identified at the Storm project

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

Lithium prices 34% on month rise as China crackdown on Lithium mines cuts production

The crackdown across a number of commodities is part of a new directive to limit oversupply and lift underlying prices

The CCP may also be looking to control more commodities following their successful use of the Rare Earth market in tariff negotiations with Trump

• Chinese officials are cracking down on lithium miners in a move to cut excessive production of key commodities.
• Officials are starting with polluting, inefficient and overproducing mines and are citing permit issues on eight mines in Yichun, Jiangxi province.
• The mines have been asked produce resource and reserve reports to confirm their mining of licensed mining rights.
• Spodumene prices have risen 34% to $805-825/t for 6% CIF China from a low of $600-620/t a month ago.

China – Official inspection and crackdown on mines prompts traders to buyup affected commodities

• Chinese traders are buying up commodities as the state starts to crack down on mines and smelters which have oversupplied the market and depressed prices.
• China’s NEA ‘National Energy Administration’ initiated a series of inspections this month following a high-level meeting at the start of the month.
• Verification of permits vs permitted resources along with pollution and other issues are being used to crack down on overproduction.
• We believe the CCP is initiating a series of policies to limit production with a view to restoring profitability across a range of commodities and sectors.
• We also suspect the CCP may also be looking to see where it may exert greater control over commodity production and to limit exports to the West.

Equities move further into Risk off trade as the public conflict between Trump and the Fed Chairman worries investors and August closes in

• US equities look to go higher at the expense of European and Asian equities.
• Few believe Jerome Powell will be re-elected in May 2026 but for the current conflict between Trump and Powell to continue for another 10 months does not feel good from an economic perspective.
• However, Trumps pressure on Powell might follow other TACO trades with Trump Chickening Out perhaps when the heat of the release of the Epstein papers has petered out.

Newmont have freed three trapped drillers from the Red Chris copper-gold mine in Canada

• The miners were first trapped on Wednesday following two collapses at the Red Chris mine ~1,000km north of Vancouver..
• The mine used a remote-controlled scoop to move the rockfall enabling workers to safely evacuate.
• The miners were able to utilise a refuge bay with supplies for an extended stay if necessary.
• The mine is operate under a joint venture between Newmont (70%) and Imperial Metals (30%)

Economics

US – Donald Trump and Jay Powell went into a public confrontation during a visit to the renovation site at Fed headquarters in Washington.

• President Trump said that the renovation bill has been increased to $3.1bn from previous estimate od $2.5bn.
• Powell denied saying that the latest estimate seems to have included refurbishments at the Martin building across the road of the construction site that was completed five years ago.

Flash Composite PMI hit the highest level this year with growth driven by services.

• Composite PMI climbed to 54.6 this month, up on 52.9 in June.
• Services also hit a 7m high with the index at 55.2, up from 52.9 in June.
• Manufacturing dropped to a 7m low (49.5 v 52.9).
• Inflation picked up both in services and manufacturing sectors in July as tariffs were transferred onto consumers with some respondents also highlighting higher labour costs.
• Employment was up for a fifth straight month as companies took on additional staff in response to rising backlogs of work.

US employment benefits fell for a sixth consecutive week in the longest stretch of declines since 2022.

• Jobless claims fell 4k to 217m hitting the lowest reading since mid-April reflecting the resilience of the labour market.

FOMC to meet next week with expectations for a no change announcement.

• Odds are for just less than two cuts for this year with the first coming not earlier than October.

China – China has broken ground on the construction of the world’s largest dam in Tibet

• CNY1.2 trillion ($167bn) Yarlung Zangbo river dam is designed as a five-level cascade hydropower station and will take around a decade to build.
• The authorities claim it will better regulate the Yarlung river and prevent future catastrophic flooding downstream.
• The CUWC ‘Central Urban Work Conference’ finished in Beijing this morning
• The seven 7 Politburo members use the event to set policy ideas for the next 5-year plan on urbanisation.
• The meeting is expected to promote stable growth in urban planning following a period of faster activity.
• The plan is to develop and improve smaller cities and villages in preference to megacities.
• “High quality upgrades” takes the center stage other than shanty town rebuild, which is the biggest difference from 2015 meeting

Japan – Inflation in Tokyo cooled for a second month in July led by temporary factors like energy, although food costs remained high.

• CPI ex fresh food was up 2.9%, down from 3.1% in June and 3.0% forecast.
• Excluding energy the measure climbed 3.1%yoy, unchanged from the previous month and matching market consensus.
• Food prices ex fresh products climbed 7.4%, accelerating from 7.2% in June and marking the highest reading since September 2023.
• Strong inflation is likely to see the central bank further tightening monetary policy.

Eurozone – The ECB is in “wait and see” mode after holding rates unchanged.

• President Chrisitine Lagarde said the economy is expanding in line with or little better than expectations, although risks remain skewed to the downside.
• The central bank offered no guidance on future rate changes amid uncertainty over the result of US/EU trade negotiations.

EU and US still locked in tariff negotiations

• The EU and Us are still locked in tariff negotiations, with both sides are discussing a 15% baseline US tariff on EU imports with exemptions for some sectors, but negotiations remain far from concluded.
• The US currently levies 50% on EU steel and aluminium, 25% on cars, and 10% on other imports.
• On the 12th July, President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs to 30% from the 1st August if no agreement was reached.
• To counter a no‑deal outcome, the EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs covering €93bn of US imports, slated to take effect on the 7th August.

Volkswagen revises guidance down and books a $2bn hit from tariffs and restructuring costs in 1H25.

• The automaker struggles to compete with lower cost Chinese car brands as well as from President Trump’s import tariffs of 25%.
• US tariffs are said to have cost VW $1.3bn in the first six months of the year with $0.7bn in restructuring provisions.

UK – Retail sales climbed at a lower than expected pace in June slightly recovering from back to back monthly contractions during spring.

• Sales may have been helped by the weather with last month being the second hottest June on record.
• Volumes were up 0.9%mom versus a 2.8% drop in May and 1.2% forecast.
• Sales were up only 0.2% higher over the quarter as consumers braced with Labour’s tax increases and President Trump’s US tariffs.

Currencies

US$1.1759/eur vs 1.1763/eur previous. Yen 147.24/$ vs 146.45/$. SAr 17.713/$ vs 17.600/$. $1.348/gbp vs $1.356/gbp. 0.658/aud vs 0.661/aud. CNY 7.168/$ vs 7.153/$.

Dollar Index 97.53 vs 97.30 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,356/oz vs US$3,366/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 91.7moz vs 91.6moz previous

Platinum US$1,408/oz vs US$1,406/oz previous

Palladium US$1,227/oz vs US$1,269/oz previous

Silver US$39.1/oz vs US$39.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$6,250/oz vs US$6,000/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,868/t vs US$9,940/t previous

Aluminium US$2,655/t vs US$2,645/t previous

Nickel US$15,515/t vs US$15,580/t previous

Zinc US$2,849/t vs US$2,865/t previous

Lead US$2,041/t vs US$2,035/t previous

Tin US$34,665/t vs US$34,945/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$69.7/bbl vs US$69.0/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices strengthened above $69/bbl on reports that the US and EU are nearing a trade agreement that would impose a 15% tariff, which is in line with the Japanese trade deal agreed earlier this week.
• US Henry Hub natural gas prices remain depressed after the EIA reported a 23bcf w/w build to 3,075bcf, with storage inventories 4.7% below last year and 5.9% above the 5-year average and LNG pipeline deliveries of 16.1bcf/d.
• Wood announced the sale to JV partner Siemens Energy of its 50% interest in RWG, a non-core turbine repair provider, for $135m cash consideration (6.6x FY23 adj EBIT) that will be used to reduce net debt.

Natural Gas €32.3/MWh vs €33.0/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $72.0/lb vs $72.4/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$111.6/t vs US$113.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.2/t vs US$464.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$178.0/t vs US$178.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$113.3/t vs US$112.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$73,595/t vs US$69,342/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,822/t vs US$9,842/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$790/t vs US$790/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$443/mtu vs US$443/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.7/kg vs US$23.7/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$283/t vs US$283/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,095/t vs US$1,097/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,975.0/kg vs US$2,975.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Company news

Aston Bay Holdings (BAY CN) C$0.065, Mkt cap C$15m – Prospective copper gossans identified at the Storm project

• Yesterday, the Canadian explorer, Aston Bay, reported that mapping and sampling to follow up MMT geophysics which identified six large conductors at the Storm project on Somerset Island, Nunavut, has defined copper bearing gossans over a strike length of around 8km.
• The gossans are located along fault structures in the ‘Tornado’ area and show the copper minerals “chalcocite … [Cu₂S] … and malachite … [Cu₂(CO₃)(OH)₂] … in outcrop”.
• The company confirms that reverse-circulation (RC) drilling is “planned to test a number of the fault-related copper occurrences and stratigraphic targets at Tornado in the coming days”.
• Aston Bay’s CEO, Thomas Ulrich, said that the “large areas of copper and iron gossans at the surface above conductivity anomalies from the … geophysical survey increase our confidence in the prospectivity of these areas and open up new areas for future potential drilling”.
• Although assay results are not yet available, yesterday’s announcement also takes the opportunity to confirm that the “diamond drilling program at Storm is progressing rapidly with eight drill holes now completed for a total of 1,786m” and drilling “now underway on the Cirrus Deeps target”.
• Diamond drill hole PFS-001 is reported to have intersected “five broad zones of visual sulfide mineralization (see Table 1) between 29-47m, 51-53m, 57-61m, 65-76m, and 83-91m downhole for a total of 43m of visual sulfide mineralization” while hole PFS-002 “intersected three broad zones of visual copper mineralization (see Table 2), including chalcocite, between 51-67m, 70.5-83m, and 98-119m downhole for a total of 47m of visual sulfide mineralization”.
• RC drilling is also underway with “21 RC drill holes completed to date (for a total of 3,194m), including;

• • 12 holes completed at the Thunder, Lightning Ridge, Cirrus, Cyclone and Corona Deposits for resource category upgrade and expansion purposes
  • 2 holes testing resource extensions to the south of the Cyclone Deposit
  • 7 exploration holes completed in The Gap, Cyclone West, Squall and Hailstorm areas”.

• The announcement also confirms the agreement, with “Ocean Partners Holdings Ltd. to provide debt finance for up to 80% of initial capital for the development of Storm”
• Ocean Partners is described as “a very well-respected international metals trader… [with] …  existing experience with ore-sorting and DSO copper products … [making it] … a natural fit with Storm and the partnership has already begun to impact and streamline the technical aspects of the processing work flow for the ongoing PFS activities”.

Conclusion: Mapping and sampling by Aston Bay and it partner, American West Metals (20:80), following up geophysical work has identified prospective copper-bearing gossans along ~8km of strike length at the Storm project

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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