SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 7th July 2025

Gold slides on further Trump tariff leniency as BRICs meeting gets underway

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) – Results as focus on boosting throughput and recoveries

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – NWR takeover update

Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) – Q2 Production Report describes operational and financial pressures offset by rising Chinese demand

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) – Additional ground staked north of the Pilot Mountain tungsten project, Nevada

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Kavango reports encouraging drill result at Bill’s Luck, Hillside, Zimbabwe

Mkango Resources*(MKA LN) – BUY– First production runs at the commercial scale HPMS facility in Tyseley

Minerals260 (MI6 AU) – Additional 55 holes from Bullabulling drilling

Northern Star (NST AU) – Shares hit as 2026 guidance disappoints

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Restart of Zulu lithium plant following modifications

Thor Energy (THR LN) – Geochemical results focus future hydrogen/helium exploration on four key areas

Gold ($3,310/oz) slides on further Trump tariff leniency as BRICs meeting gets underway

• Gold prices have pared gains since their mid-June rally amid escalating tensions between Iran-Israel.
• These have cooled, with haven demand fading, weighing on gold.
• The dollar has also bounced off recent lows, led by a weakening JPY stalling rally in the Euro and Sterling.
• Trump suggested that tariff reprieves will be issued for several countries, reducing concerns over a renewed trade war.
• The BRICs summit starts this week, with Brazil set to host some of gold’s current largest buyers.
• Trump has warned that countries aligning themselves with the BRICs group and their ‘Anti-American’ policies may be vulnerable to further tariffs.
• Platinum and palladium followed gold lower.

Copper ($9,793/t) slides on profit-taking as dollar bounces from recent lows

• Copper prices have eased from their recent highs, with Comex prices leading LME prices lower.
• The move past $10,000/t has been predominantly driven by sustained tariff concerns, with traders taking profits following the sharp move higher.
• LME inventory data has sowed a jump in deliveries to Asia as Chinese smelters look to secure metal supply.
• US inventories continue to build on Comex, as traders position for the Section 232 announcement on future copper tariffs from the Trump administration.
• However, Reuters highlights low CME volumes since February, with futures contracts volumes down 40%yoy for 1H25 as the investment community steps back following a volatile period.
• Money manager positioning has been flat since April, with short positions sitting at three-year lows.
• Similar data is seen in Shanghai, with copper trading activity down 14%yoy over the same period.
• The dollar has bounced, further weighing on Asian buying capacity.

May global EV sales see plug-in vehicles reach 25%

• Global registrations of plug-in vehicles were up 22% yoy, totalling 1.6m registrations.
• Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were up 19% yoy to 1m units, with plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) up 28% yoy to over 500,000 vehicles.

UK EV sales make up 21.6% of new vehicle sales in H1 2025, significantly below ZEV mandated 28%

• Electric cars sales were up 34.6% yoy, to 224,838, in H1 2025 according to preliminary data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)
• New car sales rose 6.8% yoy in June, the best sales figure for the month since pre-covid in June 2019.
• 47,400 EVs were sold in June, 25% of all new vehicle sales.
• These figures are significantly below the 28% ZEV mandated number for 2025.

Gold & online misinformation about Basel III (LBMA)

https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/gold-and-hqla-correcting-misleading-online-information

• There have been inaccurate reports online that gold will be reclassified as Tier 1 HQLA (High Quality Liquid Asset) under Basel III as of July 1, 2025.
• This information is not correct; no official announcement has been made or is expected on gold gaining HQLA status.
• See LBMA link for a fuller description on the reclassification of gold and where the misunderstanding comes in.

IGTV: Trading Experiences with Angeline Ong: Talk starts 2:16 into the video: 

Economics

US – Treasury Secretary Bessent hints that some countries may get an extension to the trade deal deadline (July 9) for further negotiations.

• Bessent suggested that a new deadline may be August 1.
• “We’re going to be very busy over the next 72 hours,” Bessent said on CNN on Sunday.
• President Trump earlier promised to start sending letters to countries that have not reached the deal with the US on Monday outlining what the import tax will be from August 1.
• 12-15 letters are said to be sent out today.
• “I think we’ll have most countries done by July 9 — either a letter or a deal,” Trump said.

President Trump threatens BRICS members and other nations of a potential to face an extra 10% tariff on its exports for “anti-American policies”.

• “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff… There will be no exceptions to this policy,” Trump said on his True Social platform on Sunday.

Zimbabwe – Government targets 1.4moz of gold purchase for 2025

• The Zimbabwe government has bought just over 700,000oz of gold through the Fidelity Gold Refinery for the first six months of the year to end-June (FINX).
• June saw a substantial 63% increase to 150,000oz with small scale miners making up ~72% of sales and primary producers at 28%.
• Modest growth was seen in primary production vs more dynamic activity in small scale production reflecting the increase in gold prices.
• The government-owned Fidelity Gold Refinery has established a new GTEU ‘Gold Trade Enforcement Unit’ using Fidelity staff and the Zimbabwe Republic Police to better monitor and regulate the gold trade.
• We wonder which currency fare better in the long-term, the Zimbabwe ZiG or the TrumpCoin?

Currencies

US$1.1747/eur vs 1.1777/eur previous. Yen 145.17/$ vs 144.38/$. SAr 17.769/$ vs 17.569/$. $1.361/gbp vs $1.366/gbp. 0.651/aud vs 0.658/aud. CNY 7.173/$ vs 7.162/$

Dollar Index 97.22 vs 96.96 previous

Precious Metals

Gold US$3,304/oz vs US$3,343/oz previous

Gold ETFs 90.5moz vs 90.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,372/oz vs US$1,389/oz previous

Palladium US$1,122/oz vs US$1,144/oz previous

Silver US$36.7/oz vs US$37.0/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,500/oz vs US$5,475/oz previous

Base Metals

Copper US$9,783/t vs US$9,840/t previous

Aluminium US$2,564/t vs US$2,602/t previous

Nickel US$15,080/t vs US$15,351/t previous

Zinc US$2,697/t vs US$2,741/t previous

Lead US$2,045/t vs US$2,062/t previous

Tin US$33,737/t vs US$33,821/t previous

Energy

Oil US$68.2/bbl vs US$68.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices are stable after OPEC+ agreed another output quota hike of 548kb/d for August, which will have restored almost 80% of the 2.2mb/d in voluntary cuts that have been in place since 1Q24.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count was down 8 to 539 units last week (-46 or 8% y/y), with oil rigs down 7 to 425 units (-54 y/y) and gas rigs down 1 to 108 units (+7 y/y), as the Permian lost 5 rigs to 265 units (-40 y/y).

Natural Gas €33.0/MWh vs €33.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $77.4/lb vs $77.7/lb previous

Bulk

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$102.0/t vs US$101.8/t previous

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$459.0/t vs US$458.4/t

HCC FOB Australia US$179.3/t vs US$175.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$114.0/t vs US$113.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$62,064/t vs US$62,020/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,657/t vs US$8,511/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$640/t vs US$630/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$428/mtu vs US$428/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$290/t vs US$290/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,096/t vs US$1,095/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV News

Huawei files patent for 1800-mile battery

• Chinese electronics-giant-turned-EV-manufacturer, Huawei, has filed a patent for a sulfide-based solid-state battery which they claim could provide 1800 miles of range.
• The patent details that the battery will have around 400-500Wh/kg, and will fully charge in 5 minutes.
• The tests are based on Chinese testing cycles (CLTC) which are more optimistic than other global testing standards, although, the range would still likely be around 1200-1300 miles.
• Questions have been raised about how feasible this battery could actually be:

• • To reach the claimed range of approx. 1800 miles, with a 500Wh/kg energy density, the battery pack would weigh around 1-tonne.
  • Sulfide solid-state batteries currently have issues with chemical instability, which can lead to degradation, as well as difficulties surrounding cost and scalability.
  • Current charging infrastructure is not powerful enough to satisfy the charging speed claims.

• Huawei’s battery is extremely speculative, and a lot of developments will need to be made in the coming years, but it does bode well for the future of EVs.

Conclusion, The claims by Huawei are impressive and technically feasible but somewhat impractical in the real-world environment.

However, this is the direction of battery chemistry development and we suspect, whoever creates the best battery will by definition also produce the best car from a practical perspective

Company News

Bellevue Gold (BGL AU) A$0.94, Mkt Cap A$1.4bn – Results as focus on boosting throughput and recoveries

• Australian gold miner Bellevue, who operate the Bellevue project in WA, report quarterly and FY25 results.
• Company produced 38.9koz over the quarter, processing 287kt at 4.5g/t and 94.4% recoveries.
• FY25 gold sales at 130.2koz, vs revised guidance of 129-134koz for the period.
• Cash increased by A$65m over the quarter to A$152m.
• Debt at A$100m, unchanged.

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) 163p, Mkt Cap £286m – NWR takeover update

• The Company cancelled its conditional A$10m equity investment into New World Resources.
• Instead, Central Asia Metals offered a US$6.5m (A$10m) unsecured loan to NWR.
• The loan drawdown is subject to CAML achieving 50%+1 share control in NWR, carrying a 10%pa interest with  a two year maturity.
• CAML cash offer for NWR reiterated at A$0.062/sh.
• The offer matches Kinterra offer on price, structure and conditions.
• The Board unanimously recommended the CAML offer.

Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) 47.7p, Mkt cap £292m – Q2 Production Report describes operational and financial pressures offset by rising Chinese demand

• Ferrexpo reports production data of ~822kt of iron-ore pellets from its Ukrainian operations during the 3 months to 31^st March 2025 (Q2 2024 – ~1.35mt).
• Premium pellet production declined to ~820kt (Q2 2024 – 1.27mt) and overall commercial production declined by 40% to ~1.3mt (Q2 2024 – 2.1mt)/
• The company highlights the impact of the continuing “suspension of VAT refunds … [by the Ukrainian authorities as a factor in reducing its] … financial liquidity … [and precipitating the need to] … downscale operations from two to one pelletising line and also to reduce the production of high-grade concentrate”.
• Ferrexpo also says that “Lower iron ore prices and lower production, have … weighed on margins … [and production pressures have been] … exacerbated by higher prices for raw materials such as gas and electricity”.
• “At the end of June, 738 colleagues are serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, more than at any time since the full-scale invasion in February 2022. During the period we also welcomed more colleagues back to our communities as veterans, a total 186 so far, of whom 98 have returned to the workplace”.
• Despite the cumulative impact of these negative factors the company’s Interim Executive Chair, Lucio Genoovese, said “we were able to significantly pivot our production mix and benefit from strong demand in China for our high-grade low-alumina iron ore concentrates”.

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) 59p, Mkt Cap £82m – Additional ground staked north of the Pilot Mountain tungsten project, Nevada

Power Metals Resources* (POW LN) 12.5p, Mkt cap £14m – (Power Metals* holds a 19.5% stake in Guardian Metal Resources)

• Guardian Metal Resources reports that it has staked additional ground close to its existing Pilot Mountain project in Nevada.
• The 59 new claims, located ~15km northwest of Pilot Mountain and to be known as the ‘Pilot Mountain North Tungsten Project’, are considered prospective for both tungsten and copper.
• The newly acquired ground hosts “three World War II era tungsten mines” (the Copper Head, Western Metals and Jasper mines) in skarns associated with the same, Luning Formation, limestones that host the mineralisation adjacent to granitic intrusions at the main Pilot Mountain project.
• Today’s announcement explains that “Initial reconnaissance field work by the Company’s geological team has confirmed and sampled numerous zones of skarn mineralisation across the Project area, confirmed the locations of the historical mines, and noted evidence for historic exploration pits and bulldozer scrapes in several areas across the Project”.
• CEO, Oliver Friesen, explained that Guardian Metals Resources’ expert geological consultant will be on site before the end of the month to further evaluate the promising Pilot North prospects and assess their potential to complement the ongoing exploration and development at Pilot Mountain”.
• Assaying of samples recovered from the initial field work is currently underway.

Conclusion: Guardian Metal Resources has secured additional land northwest of its Pilot Mountain tungsten project in a similar geological setting and with historic mining dating from the 2^nd World War.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metals

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 1.14p, Mkt Cap £35m – Kavango reports encouraging drill result at Bill’s Luck, Hillside, Zimbabwe

(Kavango hold 100% of the Hillside license area in Zimbabwe)

• Kavango Resources report an assay of 11.79g/t gold over 4.36m at the Bill’s Luck project within the Hillside license area in Zimbabwe.
• Underground diamond drilling from Bill’s Luck shows:
• Hole BLDDUG004B which was collared on 2 Level in the underground workings at 995m above sea level and drilled to a depth of 75.48m.
• Best intersection:

• • 4.36m* grading 11.79 g/t from 47.36mto 51.72m Inc.

• • • 0.57m at 11.9g/t,
    • 0.60m at 44.88g/t
    • 0.60m at 25.04g/t

• A second intersection shows:

• • 4m grading 0.49g/t  from 61.30m depth

• The team are currently working on a 50t/d CIP plant at Bill’s Luck and have built a 820t ore stockpile grading 2.55g/t at the Main Shaft which should increase to 3,500t/d by trial plant conditioning.
• The team also expect to increase milling capacity to 60t/d which should allow for sufficient spare capacity to keep the 50t/d trial plant going.
• New headgear at the shaft should also enable Main Shaft to move to 70t/d.
• We would expect Bill’s Luck to produce around 15,000oz pa on a two shift, five day a week production cycle and a 90% recovery rate.
• Kavango will be required to sell its gold to the Fidelity Gold Refinery which is run by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe.

• Medium scale gold miners appear to receive 90% of the spot gold price on gold sales with 70% paid on US dollars and 30% pain in ZiG,the nation’s sixth attempt at creating a stable currency.
• While the ZiG does not appear overly popular it is reported to be backed by gold hence the government’s focus on encouraging higher gold production.
• The ZiG recently strengthened to 26.89 vs the USD on news of rising gold output and improving foreign currency reserves.

• The Zimbabwe government is targeting 1.4moz of in-country gold purchase for 2025 having bought just over 700,000oz of gold through the Fidelity Gold Refinery for the first six months of the year to end-June.
• June saw a substantial 63% increase to 150,000oz with small scale miners making up ~72% of sales and primary producers at 28%.
• Modest growth was seen in primary production vs more dynamic activity in small scale production reflecting the increase in gold prices.
• The government-owned Fidelity Gold Refinery has established a new GTEU ‘Gold Trade Enforcement Unit’ using Fidelity staff and the Zimbabwe Republic Police to better monitor and regulate the gold trade.

Conclusion: It is always good to see high gold grades in new drilling but it is the average, dilution and mineable widths that will important.

Kavango have an advantage in a ready-made workforce of local artisanal miners who should work well under the direction of the new General Manager, Everjoy Ngomamiti (ex. Barrick Mining).

It will be important to understand the true width of the reefs at Bill’s Luck to evaluate potential dilution and work out if the mine might produce comparable to that seen in the current ore stockpile of 2.55g/t.

*Two SP Angel Analysts recently visited Kavango’s Hillside mines and licenses in Zimbabwe. An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Kavango

Mkango Resources*(MKA LN) 35p, Mkt Cap £100m – First production runs at the commercial scale HPMS facility in Tyseley

BUY

• The Company started first production runs at the commercial scale HPMS vessel at Tyseley Energy Park, Birmingham.
• Commissioning is carried by the University of Birmingham and HyProMag (100% owned by Magnito that is 79/21 owned by Mkango/CoTec).
• The vessel the recovers valuable NdFeB magnets in the form of an alloy powder using patented HPMS process.
• Demagnetised powder is then fed into downstream magnet manufacturing or sold to a third party for long loop processing (ie production of separate REOs).
• Downstream magnet manufacturing equipment will be commissioned sequentially over the coming months.
• Magnet manufacturing presses and sintering furnaces are targeted for commissioning by the end of 3Q25.
• The facility is the only commercial scale rare earth sintered magnet making facility in the UK.
• HyProMag is an exclusive licensee of the technology developed in the University of Birmingham.
• The facility will use existing NdFeB scrap inventories, ongoing purchases of NdFeB containing waste material as well as product offtake and spot purchases.
• The plant is forecast to produce 0.5t per month of recycled HPMS NdFeB product by the end of July.
• The plant to ramp up to 2t pm (ie ~25tpa) by the end of 2025.
• Target is to expand to 100-350tpa run rates in 2026 with further expansion options being evaluated.

Conclusion: First production runs at the commercial scale HPMS facility marks a major milestone in development of the UK based production of NdFeB permanent magnets from scrap. The facility is producing demagnetised powder with further downstream processing units to be commissioned in coming months. The facility expected to run at 25tpa by the end of 2025 and 100-350tpa in 2026 unlocking a potential cost competitive source of permanent magnet production in the West and reducing its reliance on China.

Industry users highlight ongoing difficulties in sourcing permanent magnets from China with Neo Performance Materials that is commissioning its permanent magnet production facility in Estonia saying earlier that they may secure a $10-30/kg premium for magnets manufactured ex China as industry users look to secure supply.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources

Minerals260 (MI6 AU) A$0.12, Mkt Cap A$258m – Additional 55 holes from Bullabulling drilling

• Minerals260 report further assay results from their large-scale drilling programme at Bullabulling, recently acquired from Zijin.
• Company completed extensional drilling including:

• • BBRC0025: 10m at 1.3g/t Au from 149m at Bacchus
  • BBRC0050: 9m at 1.2g/t Au from 53m

• Infill drilling includes:

• • BBRC0041: 17m at 1.3g/t Au from 170m
  • BBRC0043: 27m at 1.6g/t Au from 163m
  • BBRC0044: 13m at 4.1g/t Au from 191m

• Infill and extensional:

• • BBRC0024: 22m at 3.3g/t Au from 162m
  • BBRC0052: 4m at 8.3g/t Au from 174m

• Management notes that infill drilling results are consistent with historical results and that the potential for continuity at depth has been confirmed.
• Company reiterates guidance for an updated MRE in 4Q25, expected to be extended at depth and along strike.

Northern Star (NST AU) A$17, Mkt Cap A$24bn – Shares hit as 2026 guidance disappoints

• Australian gold miner Northern Star reports production data from the June quarter and FY25.
• Total production over the quarter of 444koz, with FY25 gold sales of 1,634koz at AISC of $2,100-2,200/oz.
• Kalgoorlie output for FY25 missed the revised guidance – 832koz vs 850-860koz expected.
• Pogo beat FY25 production guidance at 283koz whilst Yandal production at mid-range of guidance with 518koz.
• FY26 guidance:

• • 1,700-1,850koz at AISC of A$2,300-2,700/oz.
  • CAPEX for KCGM Mill Expansion plant of A$530-550m to boost throughput to 27mtpa.
  • CAPEX for KCGM Operational Development: A$500-550m
  • Total CAPEX guidance of A$2,125-2,270m

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.01p, Mkt Cap £8.5m – Restart of Zulu lithium plant following modifications

• Premier African Minerals reports that its Zulu lithium plant in Zimbabwe restarted operations on 6^th July following “the installation of spodumene float section inserts … [intended to] … reduce the retention time of concentrates in the cleaner section of the original float plant and in so doing, improve grade and recovery”.
• CEO, George Roach, commented that “Thanks to the outstanding support we have received from each of the OEM suppliers associated with all the plant components from the mill to final floatation, we have been able to restart the plant late afternoon on 6 July 2025”.
• He explained that the “plant has run with limited feed to allow for checks on the operation of each of the plant components and process integration up to the spodumene cleaner cell inserts that will be brought into the process today once sealants have hardened”.
• Mr. Roach undertook to provide further progress reports “once they become available and have been properly validated … [and said that] … All being well, ore from the ROM pad will be fed from today and commissioning and optimisation of the Primary Spodumene Floatation Plant will follow”.

Thor Energy (THR LN) 0.55p, Mkt Cap £4.8m – Geochemical results focus future hydrogen/helium exploration on four key areas

• Thor Energy reports “significantly elevated hydrogen and helium” levels in geochemical soil samples recovered from its Hy Range project, South Australia.
• The company says that results showed some hydrogen levels of “more than 1,000ppm, with highest reading of 3,000ppm (approximately 6,000 times background values) … [with helium] … detected up to 27ppm (greater than five times background values)”.
• The geochemical surveying has identified “Four high-grade focus areas … for future exploration” at:

• • The “Mallala area, located approximately 40 km north of central Adelaide”; and
  • The “Locheil area, located in vicinity of the township of Locheil”; and
  • The “Crystal area, an elongate area extending south southeasterly from the township of Crystal Brook”; and
  • The “Mt Lock area,an area 10 km northwest of the township of Jamestown”.
• Thor Energy explains that the geochemical results have “significantly added to the understanding of hydrogen and helium generation and migration systems within these areas … [and that] … Future work will be focused on and around these four areas, resulting in further prospect definition, ranking and ultimately drilling of the most prospective and highest value wells within these focus areas”.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that Managing Director, Andrew Hume, “will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) and Managing Director (“MD”) with immediate effect” with Alastair Clayton resuming his role as Non-Executive Chairman.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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