SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 2nd July 2025

Tin pushes higher as Myanmar restart delayed and ore supply tightens in China

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Geochemical anomaly reveals potential extension to Dokwe North

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) – Drilling shows further deep graphite mineralisation at Orom Cross, Uganda

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) – Ganfeng highlights lithium price bottoming amid unsustainable levels

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – Operating improvements achieved in H2 2024 continuing into 2025

Metals One (MET1 LN) – Acquisition of Colorado uranium exploration project completed

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Offtaker converts accrued interest into equity

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) BUY, Target 16.7p – Retail offer closes taking total funds raised to £4.8m

Tin ($33,632/t) pushes higher as Myanmar restart delayed and ore supply tightens in China

• Tin prices have ground higher following the Bisie-resumption sell-off, pushing through $33,500/t.
• Shanghai tin inventories have been sliding, hitting a four-month low last month whilst LME inventories hover c.2kt.
• China is struggling to access ore form Myanmar, which banned mining in August 2023.
• China tin imports from Jan-May fell 37%yoy, whilst African imports, driven by the DRC and Nigeria, increased to 50% of imports.
• Whilst Myanmar has approved the restart of mining from the Wa State, which accounts for 90% of the Country’s production, output has yet to ramp up.
• Output is being limited by a combination of the March earthquake implications, continued rainy season and, most importantly, continued grade decline.
• Grades are reportedly down from1 % pre-suspension to 0.5% Sn currently.
• Jiangxi tin smelter operating rates are low (51% as of June 27^th), as refining fees have fallen to $1,500/t from c.$2,400/t same time last year, reflecting limited concentrate supply.
• Indonesia is filling some of the supply gap, although the current administration is focused on keeping metal in country for downstream uses.
• Indonesia tin ingot exports rose to 22kt from Jan-Feb 2025, up 110%yoy but still down 10% vs 2023 levels.

Conclusion: Tin supply remains constrained from Myanmar and Indonesia, with Chinese smelter rates reflecting an ongoing ore shortage. We see these shortage factors as part of a longer term trend in tin markets, with limited greenfield projects set to begin construction in the coming years. With demand from the semiconductor industry tepid currently and inventory levels continuing to decline, we would not be surprised if tin prices took another leg higher going forward. We are tin bulls, and consider the following names the best way to gain exposure to the theme: Cornish Metals^, Alphamin Resource+, MetalsX*

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Cornish Metals, +An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Alphamin

Copper ($9,950/t) holds higher ground on extended Section 232 tariff uncertainty extended and Peru supply disruption

• Copper prices continue to be driven by a combination of supply disruptions and tariff uncertainty moving metal into the US.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent stated yesterday that ‘the Section 232s take longer to implement’ with tariff expectations on copper continuing.
• Comex prices are trading at a $1340/t premium to LME prices, with traders expecting >10% tariffs on US copper imports.
• As a result, traders have been rushing to move metal into the US, diminishing inventories in Asia.
• This has combined with several supply disruptions, first from Ivanhoe’s Kamoa mine and now with the return of road blocks in Peru at MMG and Hudbay’s operations.

Rare Earths – Weaponisation of Rare Earth exports allows China to score in US Tariff negotiations

• China appears to have used its dominance of Rare Earth Element refining to score an apparent victory in its Tariff negotiations with the Trump Administration.
• It is increasingly apparent the West needs to be able to mass produce drones to hold back Russian aggression in Ukraine and to stop Russia from marching further into Europe.
• Putin will recreate the FSU in its entirety if he feels he has half a chance, including Poland, East Germany and a few others along the way, and it’s possible he might not stop there.
• China’s clear weaponisation of REEs has, at long last, persuaded nations and manufacturers to pay more for non-Chinese sources of REEs and other critical materials.
• Canada and others are also looking at allocating NATO expenditure to support domestic supplies of Critical minerals.
• China’s low operating cost base has shelved many western REE projects, while the relatively small scale of markets for Rare Earth Elements means they have been overlooked by the majors.
• But, the market for permanent magnets is growing fast: EVs, Drones, Robots, Wind turbines, etc… all work very much better with REEs in their magnets.
• Tesla and others have tried using magnetic induction but the loss of efficiency has forced manufacturers to move back to permanent magnets.
• Processing: China leads the way in conventional REE processing for ‘ionic clay’ mineralisation but also banned the export of certain REE processing technologies and equipment in 2023.
• The ban applies to: Extracting and separating rare earth elements. Producing rare earth metals and alloys. Processing certain rare earth magnets.
• Metallurgy in magnets: Chinese manufacturers also have a few ‘tricks of the trade’ when it comes to the metallurgy of combining REEs into magnet forms.
• They use melt-spinning, milling, sintering and sometimes press the material in an isostatic process with a magnetic field to orientate the metal grains. Eg its complicated!
• The West needs to inspire a generation of metallurgists to at-least catch-up with the Chinese in the production of
• Fortunately for the West there are some dedicated companies working on the extraction and refining of REEs, mainly from waste materials.
• Companies: Mkango*, Ionic and Rainbow Rare Earths are all working towards larger-scale recovery of REEs and others will follow.
• Premiums: Manufacturers will now pay premium prices to be sure of supply and they need to, as China may use all its REEs domestically and may only export material surplus to it’s 5-year plan.
• Reuters reports Korean manufacturers are prepared to pay 15% to 20% more for magnets made outside China.
• In many respects the West is naive if it thought China was going to produce low-cost, polluting, REEs for export to the West for the long-term.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Mkango Resources

Trade IG: Trading Experiences with Angeline Ong: Talk starts 2:16 into the video: 

Currencies

US$1.1777/eur vs 1.1785/eur previous. Yen 143.86/$ vs 143.31/$. SAr 17.687/$ vs 17.621/$. $1.371/gbp vs $1.376/gbp. 0.657/aud vs         0.658/aud. CNY 7.167/$ vs 7.162/$.

Dollar Index 96.88 vs 96.70 previous.

Economics:

US – OBBBA ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ cleared the Senate in a 51-50 vote with VP JD Vance casting the tiebreaking vote.

• The bill will now go back to the House for another vote expected later today.
• President Trump urged lawmakers to pass the bill by the end of the week when the nation celebrates the 4^th of July.

The OBBBA raises the US debt ceiling by 25% to US$5tn from $4tn representing a massive potential increase in US money supply

• US dollar weakness – till further US economic growth kicks in
• Expansion of the money supply is seen as inflationary

Fed Chairman Powell said the central bank would have probably cut rates earlier if it was not for President Trump tariffs.

• “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs.”
• The Fed is waiting for the effects of the tariffs while Powell declined to rule out a cut as early as July 29-30.
• “We think that the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what those effects might be,” he added.

On trade talks, President Trump said he is not considering delaying the July 9 deadline for higher tariffs while voicing threats to stop negotiations and impose duty rates on several nation, including Japan.

• Trump sounded more optimistic on a potential deal with India.
• “It’s going to be a deal where we’re able to go in and compete. Right now, India doesn’t accept anybody in,” Trump said.
• “I think India is going to do that, and if they do that, we’re going to have a deal for much less tariffs.”

NFPs to be reported tomorrow ahead of the 4^th of July celebrations this Friday.

• Estimates are for the economy to have added 110k new jobs in June, down from 139k in May.
• Unemployment to nudge up to 4.3%.

UK – The government watered down the welfare bill in a vote on Tuesday that in turn may see no net savings to the budget that was previously set at £5bn.

• Treasury may now be facing the prospect of raising taxes to cover the £5bn gap.
• The bill was designed to rein in ballooning welfare while encouraging people back to work.

Israel/Hamas – President Trump urged Hamas to offer a “final proposal” for a 60d ceasefire with Israel.

• Earlier, Israel was reported to have agreed all necessary conditions to finalise the 60d ceasefire.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,330/oz vs US$3,336/oz previous

Gold ETFs 90.5moz vs 90,560,312.1moz previous

Platinum US$1,358/oz vs US$1,338/oz previous

Palladium US$1,114/oz vs US$1,106/oz previous

Silver US$36.0/oz vs US$36.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,475/oz vs US$5,475/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,933/t vs US$9,962/t previous

Aluminium US$2,595/t vs US$2,609/t previous

Nickel US$15,260/t vs US$15,225/t previous

Zinc US$2,709/t vs US$2,729/t previous

Lead US$2,044/t vs US$2,045/t previous

Tin US$33,565/t vs US$33,795/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$67.2/bbl vs US$66.8/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged higher even as the API estimated an unexpected 0.7mb w/w build (-2.3mb exp) to crude and 1.9mb build to gasoline, offset by a 3.5mb build to distillate stocks.
• European energy prices also moved higher as European temperatures peaked above 40 degrees Celcius as France’s nuclear generation rose 2% w/w to 64% of 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €34.3/MWh vs €32.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $77.7/lb vs $78.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$99.8/t vs US$99.2/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$458.4/t vs US$458.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$175.0/t vs US$175.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$113.3/t vs US$111.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$62,020/t vs US$62,062/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,511/t vs US$8,308/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$630/t vs US$625/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$428/mtu vs US$428/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$290/t vs US$290/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,095/t vs US$1,096/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Company News

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 1.43p, Mkt Cap £26m – Geochemical anomaly reveals potential extension to Dokwe North

• Ariana Resources has announced what it describes as a “geochemically significant” anomaly 125m northeast along strike from its planned open-pit at the Dokwe North gold project located around 110km west of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.
• Coincident and partly overlapping anomalous levels of both gold and arsenic, extending “north-eastwards for approximately 500 metres” show a similar geochemical signature to the anomaly overlying Dokwe North.
• Today’s announcement explains that there “is no drilling within the immediate target area, making this a highly significant exploration target that offers an opportunity to discover an extension to the Dokwe North deposit … [and confirms that the] … target will be drilled at the earliest opportunity”.
• Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener, described the newly identified geochemical anomaly as “highly significant” and said that it “must be tested through drilling as a priority”.
• He commented that “Today’s news reveals an exciting new development for Dokwe, which could greatly improve our development plans for the Project”.
• He explained that the geological team had been refining its use of “the detectORE^TM technology … [to help]… locate buried gold mineralisation … [and that the]… discovery of this anomaly aligns with everything we have learnt about the Dokwe mineralisation style and its geological context, as well as the dispersal patterns of trace elements in the soil profile above the orebody”.
• He confirmed that “We are now preparing to deploy these technologies across the broader Bulawayo-Bubi Greenstone Belt – particularly in concealed, underexplored areas – with the aim of determining whether Dokwe forms part of a larger, camp-scale cluster of deposits”.
• Dr. Sener thanked “the Dokwe team for their outstanding work”.

Conclusion: Innovative field geochemical techniques have identified potential mineralisation close to Dokwe North. Ariana Resources is preparing a wider use of these methods over the whole Bulawayo-Bubi Greenstone Belt as it explores for further concealed orebodies.

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) 4p, Mkt Cap £13m – Drilling shows further deep graphite mineralisation at Orom Cross, Uganda

• Blencowe Resources reports that three deep holes drilled at the Northern Syncline deposit in its Orom Cross graphite project in Uganda have each intersected wide graphite mineralisation at depths below 100m.
• The company announcement says that the holes at the Northern Syncline, located ~3km northwest of the previously reported deep holes at the Beehive deposit, all ”ended in mineralisation, confirming the orebody remains open at depth”.
• The drilling at Northern Syncline and Beehive forms part of the company’s, now complete, Stage 7 drilling programme “totalling 6,750m across 221 resource holes, 8 geotechnical holes and 6 deep holes”.
• The company confirms that results from the campaign “will directly support both the planned JORC Resource upgrade and ongoing DFS workstreams, with parallel inputs also advancing across offtakes, mine design, infrastructure, ESG, and permitting”.
• Blencowe Resources comments that a “larger and deeper resource model – underpinned by consistent mineralisation at Beehive and now at Northern Syncline – will feed into strategic engagement with offtakers and funding partners”.
• The company also confirms that “The next US$0.75 million tranche from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) grant is expected shortly, as Blencowe continues to receive strong support for a project of global significance in the energy transition supply chain”.
• Welcoming the results of the deep drilling, Executive Chairman, Cameron Pearce, explained the significance of the deep mineralisation encountered at at the Northern Syncline and Beehive deposits saying that “Orom-Cross is shaping up to be even more substantial than previously recognised – and this is before we have received most of the assays from the broader programme”.

Conclusion: Drilling at the Beehive and Northern Syncline deposits at the Orom Cross project shows that graphite mineralisation extends deeper than originally thought and remains open at depth.  Additional funding from the US International Development Finance Corporation, expected shortly should assist the company in maintaining momentum as it works towards an update of its mineral resource estimate and a Definitive Feasibility Study.

Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) HK$24, Mkt Cap HK$72bn – Ganfeng highlights lithium price bottoming amid unsustainable levels

• Chinese lithium major Ganfeng has stated that lithium prices are showing bottoming characteristics, SMM reports.
• The Company noted at an investor conference that multiple projects will be unable to sustain operations at current prices, with capacity expected to exit.
• Ganfeng reported revenue of CNY18.7bn in 2024, adj. EBITDA of CNY2.1bn and Adj. net profit of -CNY663m.
• Ganfeng is targeting 600kt of LCE capacity by 2030, having hit 250kt LCE in 2024.
• The Company has 152ktpa of conversion capacity in China.
• Upstream asset base:
  • Mali -Goulamina: 7.1mt LCE (65% interest)
  • Argentina brine projects
    • Mariana: 8.1mt LCE
    • Cauhcari-Olaroz: 25mt LCE, 30-35kt 2025E (47% interest)
    • PPG: 11mt LCE
    • PG: 5.3mt LCE
  • Mexico
    • Sonora: 8.8mt LCE
  • Australia
    • Mount Marion: 2mt LCE (50% interest)
    • Pilgangora: 11.6mt (6% interest)
  • China
    • SS Lepidolite Project: 1.5mt LCE (90% interest)
    • Qinghai Yiliping Brine project: 1.7mt LCE (49% interest)
    • Gabus lepidolite project: 1.1mt (70% interest)
    • Vilasto lepidolite: 1.4mt LCE (12.5% LCE)
• Market Outlook:
  • 4m new EV sales pa in 2030E from 2m in 2025E.
  • Current global supply of LCE at 1.4mt LCE (1.23mt in 2024, 0.9mt 2023, 0.74mt 2022
    • 10% Lepidolite
    • 34% Brines
    • 56% Spodumene

Conclusion: Ganfeng has aggressively expanded production across several continents, with growth projects focused in Mali and Argentina.

Management had previously warned of an oversupplied market, however we do not recall them suggesting that prices were bottoming.

Ee expect higher-cost western loss-making operations to struggle with spot prices for both carbonate and spodumene well into the cost curve.

Ganfeng’s recent commentary could mark a step change in the China’s longer-term strategy given its integrated role in the supply of lithium raw materials.

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 0.65p, Mkt Cap £6.2m – Operating improvements achieved in H2 2024 continuing into 2025

• Yesterday, Goldstone Resources reported a 2024 operating loss of US$2.1m (2023 – US$1.3m loss) and a closing cash balance of ~US$0.1m.
• Finance costs of ~US$2.0m (2023 – US$1.4m) resulted in a pre and post tax loss for the year of ~US$4.2m (2023 ~US$2.7m).
• Non-Executive Chair, Angela List, commented that “a renewed focus on operational improvements and financial stabilisation … [by] …  the entire team are bearing fruit and that we remain confident and enthusiastic about the Group’s ability to transition into a profitable mining company”.
• She highlighted improvements in production from the Homase gold mine in Ghana during the final quarter of the year and said that they were continuing “into 2025, with consistent and improving production levels that reflect the changes implemented at site”.
• She explained that “important steps … [had been taken] … to strengthen … [Goldstone’s] … financial position and improve its balance sheet, reducing financial pressure and ensuring that GoldStone is positioned strongly, as gold production continues to ramp up throughout 2025 and into 2026”.
• Ms List also confirmed that the “standstill agreement with Asian Investment Management Services Limited (“AIMSL”) remains in place, with the repayment now deferred to the end of 2025. This will allow the Group to focus on further operational improvements and strategic planning”.
• She commended “the collaborative spirit and technical focus across the Group … [and said that the] … management team, both in Ghana and at the corporate level, has shown commendable tenacity and professionalism”.
• Confirming and detailing the operational improvements at Homasi and echoing the Chair’s appreciation of the Ghanaian team, CEO, Emma Priestly, also expressed an enthusiasm to “review exploration targets at the Akrokeri Underground Mine, which remains a core asset within our longer-term development strategy”.

Conclusion: Operational improvements at the Homase mine during the latter part of 2024 are continuing into 2025 with cost reduction and consistent monthly ore volumes being delivered for stacking.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Goldstone Resources

Metals One (MET1 LN) 20.45p, Mkt Cap £56m – Acquisition of Colorado uranium exploration project completed

• Metals One reports that it has completed the acquisition of the Uravan Uranium-Vanadium Project in Montrose County, Colorado.
• MetalsOne is paying “US$50,000 in cash and the issuance of 500,000 new ordinary shares in Metals One (“Consideration Shares”), representing half of the aggregate consideration due for the acquisitions of both Uravan and the Squaw Creek Uranium Project, Wyoming, with the latter also expected to complete soon”.
• The Uravan project, which is in “one of America’s most historically productive uranium-vanadium districts” consists of ~490 hectares in 59 unpatented mineral claims close to “the historic Buckhorn Mine”.  The exploration rights are valid for 10 years.
• The company describes its targets as “high-grade carnotite-style mineralisation within the Morrison and Chinle Formations – both recognised hosts of uranium across the Colorado Plateau”.
• As described in recent announcements, exploration has started “in anticipation of completion of the acquisition of Uravan” with ground-based radiometric surveying, structural mapping and sampling and geochemical analysis already underway.
• Results of this initial exploration “will be used to define potential drill targets and advance the Company’s understanding of the Project’s mineral systems”.
• “A Phase 2 programme is anticipated for late 2025, subject to ongoing results”.
• Welcoming completion of the acquisition, Chairman, Craig Moulton, said that it “positions us in one of the most historically productive uranium-vanadium regions in the United States, with evidence of high grades and a geological setting ideally suited to modern exploration”.

Conclusion: MetalOne has finalised the acquisition of the Uravan exploration project in Colorado. Field exploration aimed at identifying initial drilling targets is underway.

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.01p, Mkt Cap £9m – Offtaker converts accrued interest into equity

• Premier African Minerals reports that its offtake partner for concentrate from its Zulu lithium operation in Zimbabwe, Canamax Technologies, has agreed to convert ~£690k of accrued interest payments into ~5.7bn shares at an issue price of 0.012 p/share.
• The company says that “Following the issue of the Canmax Shares, the Company’s issued share capital consists of 76,008,109,313 Ordinary Shares”.
• On this basis, the new shares being issued to Canamax represent ~7.5% of the enlarged company.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 3.6p, Mkt Cap £78m – Retail offer closes taking total funds raised to £4.8m

BUY – 16.7p (from 18.1p)

• Retail offer closes raising additional £0.3m to progress development of the flagship Barroso Lithium Project in Portugal.
• Retail offer was launched 26 June and brings total funds raised to ~£4.8m.
• The Company reports closing cash position of £9.1m as of 27 June 2025 (ie pre raise proceeds).

Conclusion: The Company secures ~£4.8m in the latest placing taking total cash balance to >£13m as the team progresses DFS work (2H25) and moves closer to securing environmental permits (2026). FID targeted for 2026 with maiden production 2027.

We have adjusted our valuation to reflect new number of shares as well as latest closing cash position.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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