SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 26th June 2025

Gold prices build on recent trading ranges as US dollar slips on Big Beautiful Bill debt concerns

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) – Plans to raise ~£6m equity as strategic investor takes 8% interest

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) – Dokwe economics benefit from robust gold prices

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) – Latest drilling results from Orom Cross graphite project, Uganda

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – NWR offer price increased to A$0.062

New Frontier Minerals (NFM LN) – Identification of drilling targets in the Harts Range project area, NT

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – Update on progress for Bibemi project

Patriot Battery Metals (PMET CN) – Tantalum by product opportunity at Shaakichiuwaanaan

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) – Geological modelling refines interpretation of Molaoi’s metallogenesis

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Drilling underway at Redmoor

SQM (SQM US) – Reports of layoffs amid weak lithium prices

Gold prices build on recent trading ranges as US dollar slips on Big Beautiful Bill debt concerns

• Focus moves to cost of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill .
• The White House says the bill will help slash US debt but many in the market are not convinced.

Copper – Eurostar cables stolen cancelling trains

• Every time the physical market for copper tightens, we see increasing theft of copper cables from rail lines.
• Stealing high-capacity copper cables from rail networks is risky work which can prove fatal for thieves so the scrap market needs to be tight before the thieves are sufficiently incentivised.
• Traders continue to move copper into the US for high premiums in the physical market pending the results of the ongoing Section 232 investigation into copper.
• The investigation could see very substantial tariffs imposed on copper imports into the US to stimulate copper mines and smelters in the region.
• Over 400,000t of physical copper has been moved into US warehouses this year with the cost of transport suggesting this metal will remain in the US.
• The result is to increasingly starve LME and SHFE warehouses outside the US causing Chinese smelters to race to deliver physical metal to cover their hedging obligations.

Trade IG: Trading Experiences with Angeline Ong: Talk starts 2:16 into the video: 

Vox Markets: Mining Matters: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/mining-matters-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-on-commodities-capital-and-change-7c82c6d/

Economics

US – Equity futures are trading higher this morning as risks of an escalation in the Middle East crisis subsided.

• S&P and Nasdaq futures are up 0.3% and 0.5%.
• VIX is now trading below the start of the Israel/Iran 12 day war in mid April.

The US$ is down with the Wall Street Journal reporting President Trump may announce new Fed Chairman to replace Jerome Powell by September/October.

• Trump grew increasingly frustrated with Powell and the Fed that refused to cut rates lately.
• Trump said he had three or four people in mind to succeed Powell with his term expiring in May 2026.
• 10y yields are little changed trading at 4.3%.

Investors ramped up selling of long dated US government and corporate bonds amid concerns over increasing debt levels.

• EPFR data showed net outflows from long dated debt coming at $11bn in 2Q25 so far marking the strongest level since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic five years ago.
• “Big, beautiful bill” presented by the current administration and that is under consideration in Congress is expected to add trillions of dollars to US debt over the next decade.

Ukraine/Russia – Donald Trump hold a positive meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the Nato summit.

• Meanwhile, US leader has been more critical of President Putin unwilling to agree to the ceasefire.
• “Vladimir Putin really has to end that war…. People are dying at levels that people haven’t seen before for a long time,” Trump said.
• Trump added that when Putin offered assistance with the Israel/Iran conflict, US President declined adding “you can help me with Russia”.

Currencies

US$1.1712/eur vs 1.1595/eur previous. Yen 143.95/$ vs 145.30/$. SAr 17.626/$ vs 17.728/$. $1.374/gbp vs $1.362/gbp. 0.654/aud vs 0.650/aud. CNY 7.166/$ vs 7.172/$

Dollar Index 97.31vs 98.01

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,347/oz vs US$3,328/oz previous

Gold ETFs 90.2moz vs 90.3moz previous

Platinum US$1,388/oz vs US$1,314/oz previous

Palladium US$1,105/oz vs US$1,067/oz previous

Silver US$36.4/oz vs US$35.9/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,425/oz vs US$5,425/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,798/t vs US$9,703/t previous

Aluminium US$2,575/t vs US$2,567/t previous

Nickel US$15,190/t vs US$15,015/t previous

Zinc US$2,742/t vs US$2,701/t previous

Lead US$2,048/t vs US$2,035/t previous

Tin US$33,310t vs US$32,540/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$67.7/bbl vs US$68.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices fell after the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draws of 5.8mb to crude2.1mb to gasoline and 4.1mb to diesel stocks, as refinery utilisation rose 1.5% w/w to 94.7% with domestic output flat at 13.4mb/d.
• European energy prices fell as media reports Chinese LNG imports in June fell 12% y/y and as EU natural gas storage levels also rose 2.5% w/w to 56.9% full (vs 66.5% 5-Yr average) with aggregate inventory at 645TWh.
• Shell announced that it was not in talks to acquire BP, quashing media speculation of such.

Natural Gas €34.9/MWh vs €35.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $78.5/lb vs $78.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$94.6/t vs US$94.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$459.3/t vs US$459.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$178.5/t vs US$179.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$109.3/t vsUS$111.9/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$62,095/t vs US$62,068/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,219/t vs US$8,146/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$610/t vs US$610/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$418/mtu vs US$418/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$290/t vs US$289/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,095/t vs US$1,687/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Company News

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) 2.9p, Mkt Cap £48m – Plans to raise ~£6m equity as strategic investor takes 8% interest

• Andrada Mining has announced plans to raise an additional £6m via the placing of shares at 3p/share.
• A new strategic investor, Talent 10 Resources, is to subscribe for £4.5m with an additional £1.5m to be offered to “new and existing institutional investors … [in an] … accelerated bookbuild”.
• The 3p/share price “represents a premium of 8% to the 15-day volume weighted average price … of the Company’s shares as at the close of the market on 25 June 2025 of 2.78p”.
• The company confirms that “Assuming the issue of 197 000 000 new Ordinary Shares, the Company’s total issued capital would increase to 1 868 679 053 ordinary shares, resulting in Talent10 shareholding of 8%”.
• Funds from the Talent 10 Resources’ investment will “be applied toward the installation of ore-sorters … [~£2.6m] … and infrastructure upgrades, completion of the pre-concentration circuit … at the existing Uis processing plant, as well as the commissioning of the Jig plant … [~£1.8m]”.
• Andrada Mining says that “Together, the Circuit and Jig are anticipated to accentuate the production profile at the Company’s processing facility” at the Uis mine in Namibia.
• Talent 10 Resources is described as “a private investment company established in 2012, with a focused yet diversified portfolio spanning mining, energy, technology, media, and industrial sectors. Talent10 is known for its non-conventional approach to investment, identifying high-potential opportunities in emerging and often underexplored industries”.

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 1.2p, Mkt Cap £19m – Dokwe economics benefit from robust gold prices

• Ariana Resources has announced improvements to the economics of its Dokwe North gold project located around 110km west of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.
• Today’s announcement confirms that, at a gold price of US$2,750/oz the project delivers an after-tax NPV_10% of US$354 million and an IRR of 75% from the production of ~795koz of gold “at an estimated all-in sustaining cost (“AISC”) of US$1,144 per ounce” over a 13 year mine life.
• Development is said to require “capital investment of US$82 million (peak funding requirement)” with payback in 1.8 years.
• The results reported today reflect improved gold price assumptions compared to the May 2024 PFS price of US$2,000/oz as well as updated assumptions for the “South African CPI and exchange rate … but the pits were not re-optimised and quotes for individual CAPEX and OPEX components were not revised”.
• Sensitivity analysis presented in today’s announcement indicates that at a US$3,250/oz gold price (close to current levels) the NPV_10% increases by around 36% (US$128m) compared to the base case to US$482m.
• In March, the company announced a conditional £1.15m fundraising at 1.5p/share “to complete certain desktop and field work to support the ongoing feasibility study at the Dokwe Project” and ensure sufficient financial resources “for its immediate project exploration and development needs until July 2025”.
• The current ‘Proven & Probable’ ore reserve at Dokwe is ~800koz hosted in ~18mt at an average grade of 1.36g/t gold and today’s announcement describes “Potential resource extensions along strike from Dokwe North and Dokwe Central“.
• Hinting at the possibility of further improvements in future, Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener, confirmed that Ariana Resources is making “substantial progress towards our DFS for Dokwe. In addition to the work completed recently on a revised geological model and consequent Mineral Resource Estimate, which outlined 23Mt at 1.5g/t Au for 1.1 million ounces (all categories at a cut-off of 0.6g/t Au) within pit-shells optimised at US$2,750/oz across Dokwe North and Central, we have been investigating opportunities to further enhance the project beyond what was envisaged in the PFS”.
• Pre-feasibility work released by the company in May 2024, described an investment requiring peak funding of US$82m at Dokwe enabling the production of an average of 60,000oz of gold annually at an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,144/oz by processing 1.5mtpa of ore over a 13 year mine life to generate an after tax NPV_10% of US$160m and an IRR of 41% at a gold price of US$2,000/oz.

Conclusion: Factoring in recent robust gold prices delivers meaningful improvements to Dokwe’s economics while further technical enhancements are being assessed as parts of the current Definitive Feasibility Study.

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) 3.65p, Mkt Cap £11.1m – Latest drilling results from Orom Cross graphite project, Uganda

• Blencowe Resources reports that three deep holes drilled at the Beehive deposit in its Orom Cross graphite project in Uganda have shown wide intersections of graphite at greater depths than previous, shallower holes and that mineralisation remains open at depth.
• The company says that all the holes “delivered wide graphite intercepts from 30 metres to end-of-hole at 100m … more than three times deeper than the original 30-metre production horizon”.
• Work is continuing with “Two rigs are now drilling three further deep holes at the Northern Syncline deposit, 3km to the north of Beehive … targeting similar vertical ~100 metre extensions as observed at Beehive”.
• Blencowe Resources confirms that “the Beehive deposit … sits outside the current 24.5Mt JORC Resource”.
• Today’s announcement confirms that “Following successful completion of the recent infill drilling campaign … Blencowe expects to receive the next US$0.75 million tranche of the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) grant funding shortly … [reflecting] … continued strong support for Orom-Cross from the US Government”.
• Welcoming the results of the deeper drilling, Executive Chairman, Cameron Pearce, explained that “it is significant that we are still finishing in mineralisation below 100 metres on all holes … [demonstrating] …. the scale and depth potential of the Orom-Cross deposit”.
• He said that if results from the Northern Syncline show similar results to the Beehive drilling, “Orom-Cross will continue to establish itself as one of the largest and most robust graphite projects globally”.

Conclusion: Drilling at the Beehive deposit at the Orom Cross project shows that graphite mineralisation extends deeper than originally thought and remains open at depth.  Further deep drilling around 3km further north will test how far the deeper mineralisation extends laterally.

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) 155p, Mkt Cap £270m – NWR offer price increased to A$0.062

• The Company increased its offer price for New World Resources to A$0.062.
• New offer price represents a revision to the A$0.055 latest offer price and the A$0.050 bid initially.
• New offer price values NWR at A$230m and also marks an improvement on the competitive bid from Kinterra Capital of A$0.057.
• Kinterra holds 19.30% shares in NWR.
• NWR closed at A$0.059 in Australia today, although, CAML announced an improved offer post market close.

New Frontier Minerals (NFM LN) 0.53p, Mkt Cap £8.4m – Identification of drilling targets in the Harts Range project area, NT

• New Frontier Minerals reports that its exploration team has identified priority drilling targets for heavy rare-earths, niobium and uranium at its Harts Range project located ~140km northeast of Alice Springs in the Northern Territory, Australia.
• The company is “reviewing quotes from prospective drilling contractors and progressing regulatory approvals to fast-track a 2,000m – 3,000m Reverse Circulation (RC) drilling campaign”.
• Among the targets highlighted in today’s announcement are the recently identified ‘Old Trafford Prospect’ located around 320m west of the Westminster Prospect and “a prominent magnetic feature circa 150-200m in diameter identified during the recent geophysical survey and subsequent interpretation”.
• Chairman, Ged Hall, confirmed that a “drilling contractor will be appointed shortly, paving the way for the inaugural drilling campaign to commence once regulatory approvals are in place”.
• Today’s announcement describes the complex magnetic anomaly, “at the Kings Cross Prospect … [as] … a series of smaller features to the west and one relatively larger and prominent feature to the east which appears to be  ~150-200m diameter and 150m-200m depth”.
• “Over the coming weeks, NFM geological team will:

• • Continue field investigations, focusing on identifying priority targets for drilling
  • Analyse assay results from the Old Trafford, Westminster and Bank Prospects to prioritise drilling targets
  • Prepare for the maiden RC drilling campaign in Q3 FY25 subject to government approvals”.

Conclusion: We await further news once drilling starts at Harts Range.

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.21p, Mkt Cap £8.25m – Update on progress for Bibemi project

(Oriole Resources holds 90% of Mbe and 90% of the Bibemi gold projects)

• Oriole Resources report on progress in relation to their ESIA ‘Environmental and Social Impact Assessment’ and ELA ‘Exploitation Licence Application’ on the Bibemi gold prospect in Cameroon.
• Oriole now await the results of the local public community review and the final report from MINEPDED Cameroon’s ‘Ministry of Environment, Nature Protection and Sustainable Development’,.
• Management recently met with the Minister of Mines and related parties in relation to the ELA and have requested a formal timeline on the remainder of the process.
• Oriole has also ordered an independent gap analysis review of the local-level ESIA to see if further information is required to satisfy international standards and potential mine finance partners.
• The team will also assess the potential to convert the updated JORC Mineral Resource Estimate and Exploration Target to a JORC Indicated category resource.
  • “The Indicated Resources, which are currently capped to 150m depth below surface, occur as a unified block in the centre of the deposit and could provide a suitable location for a starter pit if mined. 
  • Resource optimisation and preliminary economic assessment (‘PEA’) studies will also commence shortly to deliver an Ore Reserves / Mineable Resources statement. “
• Additional metallurgical test work will also start shortly to check for potential modifications for the mineral processing flow sheet.
• Process plant capex and OPEX costings will be done to scoping study levels.
• Further work including advanced mine planning and a review of potential tailing storage facilities are expected to commence later this year.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole

Patriot Battery Metals (PMET CN) C$2.0, Mkt Cap C$329m – Tantalum by product opportunity at Shaakichiuwaanaan

• The Company started an evaluation of incorporating tantalum production by product stream at the Shaakichiuwaanaan Lithium Project, Quebec.
• The project hosts top 5 tantalum pegmatite mineral resource globally with 108mt at 166ppm Ta2O5 33mt at 156pp Ta2O5 in Indicated and Inferred categories.
• FS completion for the lithium only production scenario reiterated for 3Q25.

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) 0.08p, Mkt Cap £3.6m – Geological modelling refines interpretation of Molaoi’s metallogenesis

• Rockfire Resources reports that recent geological modelling of its Molaoi zinc project in Greece, completed while the company awaits drilling permits, has refined the exploration model and identified additional exploration targets along strike from its Kalamaki prospect.
• At Kalamaki, which has benefitted from most of the drilling so far, “the highest-grade and thickest mineralisation is within the thickest sandstone layers. These economic concentrations of mineralisation are understood to have formed along or close to active faults at the time the rocks were being formed”.
• The modelling has “highlighted other positions along strike where similar faults may have been active and will assist to identify zones with thicker and higher-grade mineralisation … [in conjunction with] … surface enrichment of zinc, and/or old workings and/or historical drill holes which successfully encountered high-grade zinc mineralisation”.
• Once drilling permits are awarded, the company plans “up to 30 infill diamond holes is planned to lift the resource confidence to the Indicated category of the JORC Code”.
• CEO, David Price, said that “When our 30-hole drill program is complete, we anticipate that Molaoi will attain the status of being the only zinc deposit in Europe with a germanium by-product Inferred Resource”.
• The Molaoi resource is currently 15m ‘Inferred’ tonnes at an average grade of 9.96% on a zinc equivalent basis.
• Today’s announcement also describes metallurgical testing of core material from the 2023/2024 drilling campaign to determine crushing and grinding characteristics and the suitability of the material for ore-sorting techniques and flotation separation.
• The “tests will commence as soon as possible to ensure timely delivery of results prior to the commencement of the scoping/pre-feasibility phase”.
• Mr. Price explained that “multiple phases of metallurgy and test work are required prior to the completion of a full feasibility … [and confirmed that] … Rockfire is determined to commence this work now to ensure a feasibility study is completed within time and within budget”.
• He also said that testing of “historical core from the 1980’s has proven to be a valuable exercise, with multiple core intercepts being found which host high-grade zinc … [including some intersections which] … have not been previously sampled”.

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 0.3p, Mkt Cap £6.9m – Drilling underway at Redmoor

• Strategic Minerals confirms that drilling has started at its Redmoor project in east Cornwall where the company has a 9-hole, 5,300m campaign planned to provide additional information for a revision of the 2019 mineral resources estimate (MRE).
• The first three holes of the programme are expected to take “up to three months to complete” following which a second rig is expected to arrive on site to complete the programme over the following three months.
• The new drilling, in conjunction with the results from the current programme of relogging the previous drilling, will contribute to a revised mineral resource estimate for Redmoor which, based on a 2019 estimate, currently hosts 11.7mt at an average grade of 0.56% WO₃, 0.16% Sn, 0.50% Cu which the company reports as 1.17% on a tin-equivalent basis.
• Project Manager, Dennis Rowland, explained that the “drilling now underway is the first exploration drilling at Redmoor since 2018 and aims to enable the accelerated development of a potentially important new domestic source of critical minerals”.
• He highlighted the tungsten potential of Redmoor describing it as potentially a “strategically important … high-grade, polymetallic tungsten resource right here in the UK”.

Conclusion: The new drilling campaign at Redmoor, which should take around six months, will provide data and additional geological insights in support of a revision to the 2019 mineral resource estimate.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

SQM (SQM US) US$34, Mkt Cap US$9.8bn – Reports of layoffs amid weak lithium prices

• News agency reports of layoffs at SQM operations amid weak lithium prices. (Reuters)
• Union sources say that dismissals would amount to ~5% of nationwide workforce.
• The Company allegedly informed the labour union that 25-30% of the layoffs would related to “general roles” and the rest to supervisors.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return.