SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 23rd May 2025

Copper strengthens on weak dollar whilst traders see green shoots in China

Gold rallies whilst US Treasury yields ease following sharp global bond sell-off

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

American West Metals (AW1 AU) SUSPENDED – Capital raise

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN)– 2024 financial results following year of progress in Sweden and Finland

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) –£4.5m equity raise to progress Pitfield titanium project

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Jakob Stausholm exit may make room for election of Bold Baatar

SilverCorp Metals (SVM CN) – Silvercorp reports the production of 3.1koz Au, 1.63moz Ag over the March quarter.

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – 14-day extension to A$100,000 purchaser payment for call option on Leigh Creek Copper mine

Copper ($9,569/t) strengthens on weak dollar whilst traders see green shoots in China

• Copper prices have rallied over $9,500/t again, supported by a sliding dollar.
• Trading house Mercuria sees a deficit of copper concentrate supplies at 700kt this year, and a 300kt refined metal deficit.
• The trader noted rebounding Chinese demands and trade flow disruption from US tariffs.
• Further shipments are expected into the US amid the ongoing Section 232 inquest into the US copper market.

Gold ($3,330/oz) rallies whilst US Treasury yields ease following sharp global bond sell-off

• Gold prices are up another 1% this morning, having rallied nearly $200/oz since last week’s lows.
• The metal is being supported by a weaker dollar and has shrugged off another spike higher in US Treasury yields.
• Global bond markets are weak currently, amid tariff-induced inflationary concerns and fiscal worries over Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill.’
• We continue to see China as the primary buyer of gold, both on a central bank level and retail front, as highlighted by the April import data showing 11-month highs.
• Chinese investors have limited options for asset allocation currently, amid low yields, slumping property prices, and inflated equity valuations vs HK listings.
• We note slowing Chinese retail spending, at 5.1% in April vs 5.9% in March, as consumers continue to express caution.
• Gold has been a major beneficiary of the weak Chinese economy, with retail now increasing allocations to PGMs following the bullion rally.

Copper – We’ve Never Seen This Before in the World: Video: 

Podcast: https://audioboom.com/channels/4099560-the-sharepickers-podcast-with-justin-waite

Economics

US – The House passed President’s Trump showpiece bill that would see a cut in taxes, social spending and increase in federal debt.

• The bill was voted through by a singe vote majority.
• “This is arguably the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country!” Trump commented on the news.
• “Now it’s time for our friends in the United States Senate to get to work, and send this Bill to my desk AS SOON AS POSSIBLE!”

US Secretary of Homeland Security informed Harvard that it would no longer be able to accept international students and current ones would need to transfer.

• The news follows the decision by the US administration to freeze more than $2.6bn in funding to the university and suspension of future grants.
• The administration is blaming the university for poor handling of the school’s antisemitism on campus and demands more oversight.
• Secretary said the school can regain its certification for enrolling foreign students before the coming academic year if it cooperates with the administration giving Harvard a 72 hour deadline.
• Harvard should provide information including disciplinary records, video footage of protest activity an records relating to illegal activity by students over the past five years, Bloomberg writes.

Preliminary PMIs came in ahead of expectations in May recovering from April lows as US paused most of its retaliatory tariffs.

• Nevertheless, measures remained historically low with export orders continuing to fall, especially in the services sector.
• Sub-measure of inflation jumped higher this month reaching the highest level since August 2022 with manufacturers lifting prices at the fastest pace since September 2022.
• US Composite PMI (May/Apr/Est): 52.1/50.6/50.3
• US Manufacturing PMI (May/Apr/Est): 52.3/50.2/49.9
• US Services PMI (May/Apr/Est): 52.3/50.8/51.0

Japan – Headline inflation kept at elevated levels while core measure slightly picked up in April.

• Stronger inflation numbers come as the BOJ is contemplating ways to tighten its existing monetary policy.
• CPI (%yoy, Apr/Mar/Est): 3.6/3.6/3.5
• CPIE ex Fresh Food, Energy (%yoy, Apr/Mar/Est): 3.0/2.9/3.0

Eurozone – PMI data released yesterday showed private business activity slowed to a six month low with services sector hitting a 16 month low and now in contraction.

• Manufacturing index picked up slightly but the sector remained in contraction.
• Eurozone Composite PMI (May/Apr/Est): 49.5/50.4/50.6
• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (May/Apr/Est): 49.4/49.0/49.2
• Eurozone Services PMI (May/Apr/Est): 48.9/50.1/50.5

UK – Retail sales surged past expectations pointing to a resilient consumer spending despite global trade war clouding growth outlook.

• Volume of goods sold climbed 1.2%mom vs 0.3% forecast.
• This marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase and followed the best quarter recorded since 2021.
• Warm weather helped to lift sales with food and alcohol among the categories that recorded an increase.
• Separately, GfK consumer sentiment gauge piked up in May on the back of a series of positive developments including higher wages, lower rates ans the UK trade deal with the US.
• GfK index came in at -20 vs -20 forecast.
• The pound traded stronger this morning just under 1.35.

Uranium – President Trump is planning to sign an executive order later today easing regulations on approvals for new reactors and strengthening fuel supply chains.

• Earlier the administration highlighted urgent need to boost energy supply sources needed for AI with Chris Wrigth, the Energy Secretary, calling the need to develop power sources as “Manhattan Project 2”.
• Uranium names are trading higher on the news with ASX listed companies up 7-12% and US listed Cameco trading up 7% pre market.

Currencies

US$1.134/eur vs US$1.131/eur previous, Yen 143.28/$ vs 143.10/$, SAr 17.859/$ vs 17.976/$, US$1.348/gbp vs US$1.342/gbp, US$0.652/aud vs US$0.644/aud,

CNY 7.195/$ vs 7.207/$, Dollar Index 99.46 vs 99.73.

Precious Metals

Gold US$3,332/oz vs US$3,329/oz previous

Gold ETFs 88.7moz vs 88.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,100/oz vs US$1,088/oz previous

Palladium US$1,023/oz vs US$1,041/oz previous

Silver US$33.4/oz vs US$33.7/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,425/oz vs US$5,500/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,567/t vs US$9,519/t previous

Aluminium US$2,471/t vs US$2,482/t previous

Nickel US$15,562/t vs US$15,507/t previous

Zinc US$2,711/t vs US$2,690/t previous

Lead US$1,986/t vs US$1,959/t previous

Tin US$32,278/t vs US$33,038/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$63.1/bbl vs US$64.2/bbl previous

Henry Hub Gas US$3.29/mmBtu vs US$3.34/mmBtu yesterday

• The US House of Representatives narrowly voted in favour of a budget bill that plans to roll back Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act tax credits for low-carbon energy projects sooner than previously indicated.
• Equinor (50%) and Polenergia (50%) have reached €7.2bn financial close (~80% financial gearing) for the 1.44GW Baltyk 2 and Baltyk 3 offshore Poland wind projects, which were awarded contracts for difference in 2021 at prices of €71/ MWh (2021 price plus inflation indexation) for 25 years with full power expected in 2028.

Natural Gas €36.4/MWh vs €37.1/MWh previous

• US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged lower after the EIA reported a 120bcf w/w build to 2,375bcf (+118bcf exp), with storage inventories now 12.3% below last year and 3.9% above the 5-year average.

Uranium Futures $71.6/lb vs $71.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.1/t vs US$100.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.5/t vs US$469.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$189.5/t vs US$190.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$103.0/t vs US$102.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,251/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$60,086/t vs US$60,207/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,601/t vs US$8,768/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$655/t vs US$685/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$1,113/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$397/mtu vs US$388/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$425/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.4/kg vs US$24.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$287/t vs US$287/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,465/t vs US$1,513/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Battery News

BYD outsells Tesla in Europe for first time

• Chinese automaker BYD sold more EVs in Europe, in April, than US rival Tesla.
• BYD registered 7,231 pure EV sales in April, up 169% yoy.
• Tesla has seen sliding sales this year and is down 49% yoy following Elon Musk’s divisive relationship with US President Donald Trump.
• BYD has also seen sales of its PHEVs soar in Europe, up 359% yoy.
• Until recently, BYD and its Chinese peers had prioritized selling fully electric cars in Europe, due to the region’s ambitious targets to lower tailpipe emissions and transition the industry away from internal combustion engines.
• Following the European Union imposing higher tariffs on Chinese-made EVs last year, many Chinese automakers have switched their European sales tactics to PHEVs.

Company News

American West Metals (AW1 AU) SUSPENDED – Capital raise

• The Company is raising new equity to progress its exploration and development programme at the Storm Copper Project, Nunavut, Canada.
• Trading in shares on the ASX were suspended pending the fundraise.

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 11.4p, Mkt cap £4.4m– 2024 financial results following year of progress in Sweden and Finland

• Beowulf reports annual financial results for the year ending 31^st December 2024.
• The Company is making strong progress in advancing their dual-pronged strategy, focusing on the Kallak high-grade iron ore project in Sweden and the GAMP project in Finland.
• Over the year, the Company has concluded several key elements of the Kallak PFS, including highlighting the project’s ability to deliver a high-grade, low impurity concentrate suitable for the DRI-feedstock market.
• Beowulf is preparing for the submission of the Kallak Environmental Permit and is facilitating an ongoing consultation process.
• At Grafintec, the Graphite Anode Materials Plant PFS was concluded, opening discussions for strategic partnerships.
• The GAMP PFS outlined strong economics, enhanced by low-cost renewable energy, skilled workforce and a supportive government, in addition to access to key European market.

• • The Plant will be developed in two phases, producing 25ktpa of CSPG at first, before ramping up to 75kt in Phase 2.
  • Phase 1 economics suggest an NPV8 of €924m, an IRR of 37% and initial CAPEX of €225m.
  • Phase 2 CAPEX stands at €675m, supported by free cash flow from Phase 1.
  • The plant will achieve a battery-grade graphite product of 99.99% Cg.
  • OPEX is expected to be competitive at €2,381/t.

• Cash at year end was £881k and 2024 administrative expenses reported at £1.66m.
• The Company raised £2.2m on the 8^th May, enabling further progress with the delivery of the Kallak PFS.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining, An SP Angel analyst recently visited Kallak

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 10.3p, Mkt Cap £71m –£4.5m equity raise to progress Pitfield titanium project

• Empire Metals has raised £4.5m at 9.5p/share through the subscription of 47,368,423 new shares.
• The Company reports ‘increased participation from our institutional shareholders in Asia and Australia’ with the fundraise cornerstoned by Asian Investment Management Services, an existing shareholder.
• Management states funds will be used to expand the Pitfield TiO2 resource drilling programme for the progression of the MRE.
• Additionally, metallurgical and engineering personnel will be appointed as the Company upscales the bulk metallurgical testwork for samples to provide to end users.
• Empire will also now commence mining studies.

Conclusion: Today’s successful equity raise reflects continued strong institutional interest in Empire’s large-scale Pitfield titanium project. We are encouraged to see funds will be used to support larger-scale metallurgical test-work and the start of mining studies. Pitfield holds the potential of a multi-generational asset and the successful development of an economic flowsheet will be integral to its future development.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) 4593, Mkt Cap £57.5bn – Jakob Stausholm exit may make room for election of Bold Baatar

• Rumours are swirling over the surprise and somewhat sudden exit of ceo Jakob Stausholm.
• Strausholm is seen as responsible for leading the group into a number of acquisitions in the lithium space following their exit from Serbia in relation to the Jadar lithium project:

• • Rincon US$825m – DLE in Argentina. Rio Tinto has since approved a $2.5bn investment to expand Rincon to 60,000tpa of LCE.
  • Arcadium Lithium – $6.7bn. DLE at Salar Del Hombre Muerto in Argentina. Arcadium have operating resources in Argentina, Australia and downstream conversion assets in the US.
  • Codelco – $900m partnership with Chilean state copper miner to develop the Salar de Maricunga in Chile

• Bold Baatar, a potential candidate is seen as steady. Baatar is a director of the Business Council of Mongolia and as Chief Commercial Officer at Rio Tinto Plc.
• Simon Trott who is also tipped as a potential new CEO is President of the Chamber of Minerals and Energy Western Australia and Chief Executive of Rio Tinto Iron Ore in Western Australia.

Conclusion: While we agree with Rio’s strategy to use its expertise to expand into the Lithium and battery materials arena we wonder if some others within Rio are less keen on recent acquisitions

SilverCorp Metals (SVM CN) C$3.9, Mkt Cap C$845m – Silvercorp reports the production of 3.1koz Au, 1.63moz Ag over the March quarter.

• Chinese-backed Silvercorp reports the production of 3.1koz Au, 1.63moz Ag over the March quarter.
• Company reported AISC of $14.3/oz Ag, net of by-products.
• Cash flow of $31m generated, with $9.9m capitalised.
• $3.1m spent on the El Domo project.
• Cash position at end of period stood at $369m, up $15m.
• Silvercorp has two operating mines in China and is building the EL Domo project in Ecuador.
• El Domo FS suggests a 10 year LOM producing 24mlb Cu, 26kozpa Au, 26mlb Zn, 488koz Ag at LOM AISC of $1.26/lb CuEq.
• El Domo targeted for commissioning in December 2026.

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 0.27p, Mkt Cap £6.3m – 14-day extension to A$100,000 purchaser payment for call option on Leigh Creek Copper mine

• Strategic Minerals report the issuance of a 14-day extension on a A$100,000 purchaser payment for a call option on the Leigh Creek Copper mine in South Australia.
• The call option is the first part of a non-binding ‘Heads of Agreement’ with Axis Mining & Minerals giving Axis a 30-day exclusive option to acquire Leigh Creek.
• Axis Mining have agreed A$1.9m in cash for 100% of Leigh Creek to be paid within six-months of the agreement.
• Axis Mining & Minerals plans to IPO on the ASX and has also agreed to issue 19.9% of its stock up to a maximum value limit of A$3m.
• Axis has also agreed to pay an earn-out to Strategic Minerals equivalent to A$4m to be paid on a half yearly basis equivalent of 20% of net free cash flows from the prior period.
• The deal, if consummated, could bring in up to A$9m.
• This combined with sales from the Cobre magnetite mine in New Mexico should enable the team to accelerated development of the high-grade Redmoor Tungsten-Tin-Copper Project in Cornwall.
• Redmoor: A new, 9-hole (~5.300m), drilling campaign at Redmoor is expected to take around six months and contribute to an updated MRE ‘mineral resource estimate’ in Q1 2026.

• • Current ‘Inferred’ mineral resource of 11.7mt at an average grade of 0.56% tungsten trioxide, 0.16% tin and 0.50% copper is based on 12 holes totalling 7,370m completed in 2017/2018.

• Scoping Study 2019: Assumptions & estimates

• • Tin:  US$22,000/t, – currently US$32,278/t
  • Tungsten: US$330/mtu – currently US$397/mtu
  • Copper: US$7,010/t – currently US$9,567/t
  • Production: 600ktpa (total of 7.1mt over 10 tears)
  • Grade: 1.09% tin eq. over ten years.
  • Capex: US$89m, pre-production
  • Sustaining capital: US$23m
  • Operating costs US$75/t mined
  • NPV8%: US$94m post tax
  • IRR: 19.4%.

Conclusion: The sale of Leigh Creek should make a significant contribution to the restart of the Redmoor mine in Cornwall. We await further news on the ASX IPO of Axis Mining & Minerals

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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