SP Angel Afternoon View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 14th May 2025

Copper – Ongoing fall in Treatment and Refining charges unsettles market

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) – Independent review of BKM Phase 1 feasibility study

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Environmental permits for San Dionisio

Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – Quarterly report envisages increased pumping rates as dewatering of the NCK Shaft advances

East Star Resources (EST LN) – IP Survey identifies near-term drilling targets at Talovskoye, Kazakhstan

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) – ASX Trading Halt

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – Mineral resource increases at Bibemi, Cameroon

Copper – Ongoing fall in Treatment and Refining charges unsettles market

• Treatment and Refining charges (Tc/Rcs) for copper concentrates continue to fall according to traders and news reports
• TcRcs fell from their normal positive ranges to negative values around six months ago and continue to fall.
• A trader is talking about an extraordinary rate of -$100/t for the privilege of sourcing copper concentrates in an already tight market vs near $50/t in April
• Strong premiums in the US have drawn substantial physical metal into the US on the expectation for new Trump Tarrifs on copper imports with freight costs keeping it there.
• The situation appears to have left China running short on physical copper, hence the mad TcRc rates for copper concentrates.
• China is seen as investing heavily in expanding its power grid network to better connect solar, wind, hydro and new nuclear power as it ramps up its power capacity.
• The US is also expected to ramp up power generation and therefore its grid capacity to meet demand for new AI servers.
• Fundamentally, while there may not be a shortage of copper in the world there is a growing shortage of copper concentrates vs smelter capacity, mainly down to new capacity in China in recent years.
• A shortage of new copper mines caused by a lack on investment over the past 30 years and inevitable interruptions to deliveries by existing miners is not helping the problem

Economics & politics

US – CPI falls to 2.3% yoy vs 2.4% with core inflation steady at 2.8%

• CPI rose 0.2% mom
• Core CPI, exc. food and energy rose 0.2%
  • Energy prices rose 0.7% mom vs and -3.7% yoy
  • Food prices fell -0.1% mom but are 2.8% higher yoy.
  • Housing costs rise 0.3% mom

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reckons the US economy is in a good position to respond to evolving conditions and uncertainties.

• Daly points out the economy has solid growth, a solid labour market and declining inflation
• How Trump tariffs will impact these figures is unknown but we do know that many US/global manufacturers are retrenching labour due to ongoing uncertainty
• Philip Jefferson, the Fed Vice Chair reckons interest rates are moderately restrictive and sees the Fed policy a well positioned to respond to a range of evolving economic conditions.

Japan – PPI rises 4.0% in April vs 4.3% in March

• Import prices fell substantially by -7.2% yoy in April vs a -2.4% yoy fall in March.
• The fall is due to Yen strength. We caution, Yen strength from Trump’s tariff turmoil may not last for so long.

Eurozone sentiment followed suit, rising from -18.5 to 11.6, also beating expectations.

• The Current Situation Index remains negative at -42.2 indicating a great deal of uncertainty held lower by the negative outlook in France and Germany.

Germany – ZEW economic sentiment rose in May to 25.2 from -14.0

• The sharp recovery is down to a softening of Trump’s Tariff talk
• The Current Situation Index remains deeply negative falling further to -82.0 vs from -81.2

UK – GDP rises 0.7% qoq in March lifting Q1 GDP to 0.2%

• GDP rose 0.2% mom, yet again ahead of expectations. Why is it that the rest of the world downgrades its growth expectations while the UK always underestimates?
  • Services rose 0.4% mom
  • Construction rose by 0.5% mom
  • Production output fell by -0.7% mom, we suspect this is due to tariff uncertainty
• Q1 GDP: The UK economy beat expectations yet again delivering +0.7% growth qoq in Q1 vs 0.6% forecast
  • Services grew 0.7% qoq
  • Production output also rose 1.1% qoq, maybe lifted by an acceleration of orders into the US ahead of Trump tariffs
  • Construction saw no growth which may be why the builders rebuilding my house after flooding seem so very keen to find more jobs to do?
  • Real GDP per capita rose 0.5% qoq, though we suspect this does not include the impact of substantial and ongoing immigration.
  • Gross fixed capital formation (expenditure) rose 2.9% qoq highlighting renewed confidence in the economy. This is interesting in the current environment.
  • Household consumption rose 0.2% qoq
  • Exports rose 3.5% qoq
  • Imports by 2.1% qoq
• BoE committee member Catherine Mann sees the UK Labour market as resilient
  • This resilience is why Ms Mann voted to hold rates vs a cut of 0.5%

Currencies

US$1.205/eur vs.1.1189/eur previous . Yen 145.80/$ vs 146.70/$ previous . SAr 18.238/$ vs 18.241/$ previous . US$1.328/gbp vs $1.328/gbp previous . US$0.642/aud vs 0.643/aud previous . CNY 7.210/$ vs 7.208/$ previous

Dollar Index 100.74 vs 101.04 previous

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,132vs US$3,188/oz. previous

Gold ETFs 88.7moz vs 88.7moz. previous

Platinum US$984/oz vs US$992/oz. previous

Palladium US$944/oz vs US$955/oz. previous

Silver US$31.7/oz vs US$32.83oz. previous

Rhodium US$5,425/oz vs US$5,425/oz. previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,477/t vs US$9,606/t. previous

Aluminium US$2,497/t vs US$2,529/t. previous

Nickel US$15,600/t vs US$15,871/t. previous

Zinc US$2,723/t vs US$2,765/t. previous

Lead US$1,981/t vs US$1,996/t. previous

Tin US$32,725/t vs US$32,914/t. previous

Energy:           

Oil US$64.2/bbl vs US$66.1/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices fell on improving market sentiment of a US-Iran nuclear deal that could result in an easing of sanctions on the latter that boosts global oil supply.
• The EIA estimated a US crude inventory w/w build of 3.5mb, offset by draws of 1mb to gasoline and 3.2mb to diesel stocks, with refinery utilisation up 1.2% w/w to 90% and domestic production flat at 13.4mb/d.
• OPEC’s May monthly oil report revised US oil supply growth forecasts 0.1mb/d lower m/m to 0.3mb/d in 2025 due to falling oil prices, with global oil demand growth unchanged m/m at +1.3mb/d in 2025.
• European energy prices continue to price in line with Brent-equivalent prices, as EU natural gas storage levels rose 1.8% w/w to 43.4% full (vs 53.6% 5-Yr average) with aggregate inventory at 491TWh.

Natural Gas €35.2/MWh vs €34.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $71.6/lb vs $71.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$101.8/t vs US$99.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.5/t vs US$469.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$190.0/t vs US$189.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$101.5/t vs US$103.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$60,207/t vs US$60,717/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,809/t vs US$8,701/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$685/t vs US$695/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,113/t vs US$1,112/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$388/mtu vs US$378/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.4/kg vs US$24.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$287/t vs US$287/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,513/t vs US$1,513/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Company News

Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) – 0.9p, mkt cap £27m – Independent review of BKM Phase 1 feasibility study

• Asiamet reports receipt of the Independent Technical Expert (ITE) report on its optimised feasibility study for the Phase 1 development of its BKM copper project in Kalimantan, Indonesia.
• The Phase 1 development envisages a “copper heap leach project targeting near-surface, higher soluble copper material. It is expected to produce approximately 10,000 tonnes per annum of LME grade A copper cathode, providing the foundation for substantial upside from the broader KSK contract of work as part of Asiamet’s staged, long-term development strategy”.
• Explaining the significance of the study, prepared independently by Behre Dolbear Australia, Asiamet Resources says that it provides the “technical input required for the project financing lender due diligence process”.
• Although the findings of the independent study are not disclosed in today’s announcement, Asiamet confirms that it “is in the process of preparing a data room to facilitate the structured engagement process with project finance lenders who have been awaiting completion of the updated study to commence formal due diligence”.
• CEO, Darryn McClelland, welcomed the ITE reports and said that its “ongoing input, particularly around lender expectations has been instrumental in shaping a study that supports a smooth transition into the project financing phase”.

Conclusion: Completion of the ITE report paves the way for detailed financing discussions on the development of BKM Phase 1 and we look forward to news of the progress of the project financing.

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 413p, Mkt Cap £580m – Environmental permits for San Dionisio

• Atalaya Mining reports that it has received environmental permits for its San Dionisio deposit located close to its processing plant at Proyecto Rio Tinto in southern Spain.
• The permits allow “the expansion of mining activities at San Dionisio, which represents a key component of Atalaya’s strategy to increase copper production by sourcing higher-grade material from deposits throughout the Riotinto District”.
• The company’s 15mtpa plant currently relies on relatively low-grade material from the Cerro Colorado pit and substituting higher grade feed from nearby deposits provides an opportunity to utilize the existing treatment capacity more effectively.
• Describing the award of the permits as a “key milestone for the development of Proyecto Riotinto”, CEO, Alberto Lavandeira, said that the company is looking forward “to fully integrating the San Dionisio deposit into our operations”.
• The company’s full year 2025 guidance is to produce 48-52,000t of copper “weighted slightly towards H1 2025” at between US$2.70-2.90/lb on a cash basis and of US$3.20-3.40 on an all-in-sustaining cost basis.

Conclusion: Environmental permits for |San Dionisio provide Atalaya Mining scope to access higher grade feed for its plant at Riotinto enabling a more resource-efficient use of existing capacity to increase production.

Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) 8.2p, Mkt Cap £106m – Quarterly report envisages increased pumping rates as dewatering of the NCK Shaft advances

• Reporting results for the 3 months to 31^st March 2025, Cornish Metals has announced a loss of C$3.0m (period to 31^st March 2024 – C$2.6m loss) and a closing cash balance of ~C$89m following the £57.4m funding in January 2025.
• Describing strong progress over the quarter, CEO, Don Turvey, said that the funding, which was supported by the principal shareholder, Vision Blue Resources and the UK’s National Wealth Fund, enables Cornish Metals “to maintain its strong momentum and further unlock South Crofty’s potential by delivering important milestones … in the coming year including advancing mine dewatering and shaft refurbishment, placing orders for long-lead items, the start of early project works and concluding the project finance process”.
• Mr. Turvey also highlighted the recent management appointments of a Project Director and General Manager “who will be key to leading South Crofty through successful construction and to full production”.
• Describing operational progress, today’s announcement confirms that “Refurbishment of New Cook’s Kitchen shaft (“NCK”) is progressing and has reached approximately 290 metres below surface. The water level in NCK shaft is currently at approximately 300 metres below surface”.
• Commenting on the progress of the shaft de-watering, which cost C$1.5m during the quarter, the company says that quarterly progress “has been slower than in prior periods reflecting the staged maintenance of the submersible pumps in preparation for the next phase of dewatering”.
• “Dewatering is currently advancing at a rate of over 15,000 m³ per day and this will increase to approximately 25,000 m³ per day once maintenance is completed”.
• Today’s announcement identifies Cornish Metals’ main near-term objectives as it moves towards a resumption of mining at the historic South Crofty tin mine as:
  • Completion of the dewatering and refurbishment of the NCK Shaft; and
  • Progressing the detailed engineering studies; and
  • Ordering of “long lead items of plant and equipment”; and
  • Starting “initial construction of the groundworks for the processing plant”; and
  • Securing “project financing for South Crofty”.
• The 2024 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for South Crofty, which includes the mining of portions of the resource currently classified as ‘Inferred’, envisages the production of up to 5,000 tonnes per year and total production of 49,310t of tin, in concentrate, from the processing of almost 3mt of pre-concentrated ore averaging 1.83% tin over a 14-years mine life.
• Pre-concentration of the ore using X-ray and dense media (DMS) sorting sees processing rates of 250ktpa through upgrading of mined ore production of 500ktpa.
• The major components of the pre-production capital costs, which includes a US$25.7m contingency, are US$40.5m on capitalised mining costs and US$59.7m for the process plant with pre-production payback within 3 years.
• An additional US$54m of post-production capital is required to sustain production and deliver life-of-mine cash costs of US$12,705/t and all-in-sustaining costs of US$16,661/t of tin production, net, we assume, of the by-product copper and zinc production of 3,444t and 3,255t respectively.
• Operating costs of ~US$103/t include mining costs of ~US$65/t and processing costs of ~US$25/t.

Conclusion: Cornish Metals is progressing its efforts to resume tin production at the historic South Crofty mine in Cornwall.  Pumping rates on the shaft de-watering phase of the project are expected to pick up from the recent 15,000m³/day to 25,000m³/day following the completion of pump maintenance.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker. An SP Angel analyst formerly worked in the South Crofty tin mine in the 1980s and holds shares in Cornish Metals

East Star Resources (EST LN) 1. 43p, Mkt Cap £5.5m – IP Survey identifies near-term drilling targets at Talovskoye, Kazakhstan

• East Star Resources, reports that induced polarisation (IP) geophysical surveying at its Talovskoye project in east Kazakhstan has identified an anomaly (the Western Target) lying around 100m below surface over an area of ~400mx400m.
• The anomaly is reported to be “open at depth” and an additional anomaly, (the Eastern Target), which is open towards the north, “shows potential to be associated with high-grade pipes, similar to those mined in the past” at the historic Talovskoye deposit.
• Historic drilling in the area showed intersections in unmined areas including:

• • An intersection of 8.1m from a depth of 28.7m in hole DH-5 at an average grade of 1.0% copper, 0.5% lead and 0.5% zinc with a lower, 5.9m wide intersection from a dwepth of 48.8m in the same hole averaging 0.6% copper and 3% zinc; and
  • An intersection of 13m from surface in hole DH-6 averaging 0.75% copper, 0.5% lead and 0.1% zinc; and
  • An intersection of 4.3m from 52.9m depth in hole DH-7 averaging 2.0% copper, 0.2% lead and 1.0% zinc.

• The company confirms that it expects to deploy a drilling rig to follow up the geophysical targets at Talovskoye and Rulikha “in the next two weeks”.
• The project are is located west of the company’s Verkhuba project which hosts “a maiden JORC MRE of 20.3Mt @ 1.16% copper, 1.54% zinc and 0.27% lead”. We understand that the resource is at the ‘Inferred’ level.
• Explaining the resource context, CEO, Alex Walker explained that the “Talovskoye target area is hosted within the Talovskaya suite, which is the same geological unit that hosts the high-grade Irtyshsky mine (30Mt @ 2.2% Cu, 5.1% Zn 0.7% Pb and 0.4 g/t Ag) 39km to the southeast, along the Irtysh shear zone”.
• He said that East Star Resources is looking “forward to drilling the high impact Talovskoye and Rulikha targets in the coming weeks”.

Conclusion: Drilling to follow up the identification of geophysical targets at Talovskoye is expected to start within two weeks. We await results with interest.

GreenX Metals (GRX LN) 36.3p, Mkt cap £109m – ASX Trading Halt

• GreenX Metals report the suspension of their shares on the ASX
• The shares continue to trade on AIM.
• The company is working on the recently expanded Tannenberg copper project license area in Germany.
• Exploration plans for this year at Tannenberg include:

• The team were also awarded US$500,000 plus technical assistance as part of the BHP Xplor program.
• GreenX also holds a number of potentially large-scale critical minerals prospects in Greenland.
• Greenland:
• Eleonore North Project (Antimony):
  • Antimony mineralisation identified along ~4km in veins and structures which appears to align gold veining at surface along 15km of potential strike.
  • Previous results include:
    • 14m long chip sample grading 7.2% Sb and 0.53g/t Au3
    • 40 m chip line with a length weighed average of 0.78g/t Au3
  • Antimony prices have risen to US$60,000/t from ~US$5,000 with China restricting antimony exports.
  • Antimony is a Critical Mineral in the US and EU.
• Arctic Rift Copper Project
  • Management are looking at remote-sensing options to better understand the extent of the copper mineralisation ahead of further exploration.

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.2p, Mkt cap £7.9m – Mineral resource increases at Bibemi, Cameroon

(BCM International is earning a 50% interest in Mbe and Bibemi by spending US$4m on exploration respectively)

• Oriole Resources reports a 23% rise in the mineral resource estimate for its 90% owned Bibemi gold project in Cameroon.
• The new estimate, which uses a gold price of US$2,750/oz and supersedes the January 2024 estimate, reports an ‘Indicated and Inferred’ resource of 6.96mt at an average grade of 2.06g/t hosting 460,000oz of gold.
• Around 22% of the gross resource (1.46mt at a grade of 2.05g/t) is classed as ‘Indicated’ with the remaining 5.5mt averaging 2.06g/t (360,000oz) designated ‘Inferred’.
• The company confirms that the “Indicated Resources occur as a unified block in the centre of the deposit and could provide a suitable location for a starter pit if mined”.
• In addition, Oriole Resources announces an “additional JORC Exploration Target* range of 3 to 5 million tonnes at 1.50 to 2.50g/t Au for 145,000oz to 400,000oz contained Au … for the Bakassi Zone 1, Bakassi Zone 2, Lawa East and Lawa West prospects, highlighting the significant upside potential of the wider licence area”.
• Welcoming the increased estimate, CEO Martin Rosser, confirmed that as well as the new mineral resource, “mineral processing work has enabled our consultant to prepare a provisional treatment plant flow sheet which, with the new MRE, will enable us to undertake provisional economic assessment studies, consider the next technical study steps, and progress the lodged Exploitation Licence Application with the Cameroon Government”.
• Mineralogical studies on two samples retrieved from “the centre of the BZ1-MRE zone … [have shown] … that the ore tested exhibits gold encapsulation in pyrite and the predominance of gold-telluride (calaverite and petzite) mineralisation”.
• The company clarifies that “Whilst gold-telluride mineralogy is somewhat uncommon, ores of this type have been mined and successfully processed for decades at Kalgoorlie in Western Australia , … Cripple Creek in Colorado … and elsewhere”.
• Metallurgical studies leading to “a provisional mineral processing flowsheet” indicate that “approximately 85% gold recovery can be achieved by employing flotation followed by pressure oxidation of a bulk sulphide concentrate and cyanide leaching of the pressure oxidation residue”.
• The company confirms that “Further sampling is being considered to support geo-metallurgical domaining at the Project, and PEA modelling is also underway to support the Company’s optimisation of the Project, to consider the next steps of technical work, and to support the ongoing Exploitation Licence Application”.

Conclusion: An increased mineral resource at Bibemi and continuing mineralogical and metallurgical investigation underpins continuing PEA modelling and helps define the scope of work to support an application for an exploitation licence.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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