SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 9th April 2025 - Share Talk

SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 9th April 2025

Gold bounces amid rising tension between China and US and concerns over Treasury market

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

American West Metals (AW1 AU) – Equity investment and project funding with Ocean partners

Aris Mining (ARIS CN) – Production rises from Segovia, Colombia, on processing plant expansion

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – Sale of Copper Bay project in Chile

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) – Increased PGM capacity via partnership with an existing producer

Liontown Resources (LTR AU) – Start of underground mining at Kathleen Valley

Montage Gold* (MAU CN) – Exploration update amid focus on higher-grade satellite deposits

New Frontier Minerals  (NFM LN) – Rock-chip sample results from the Harts Range project

Peabody (BTU US) – Assessing acquisition of Anglo American’s steelmaking coal assets

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) – Cullinan sales tender postponed in response to US tariff uncertainty

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Shining a spotlight on precious metals projects

Gold ($3,043/oz) bounces amid rising tension between China and US and concerns over Treasury market

  • Gold prices are rising as traders seek protection against rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China.
  • Trump increased tariffs on China to over 104%, with expectations of Beijing’s retaliation rising.
  • Trump has called China out for being one of the ‘worst offenders’ in what he sees as unfair trade practices.
  • Gold peaked at recent highs over $3,160/oz and sold off sharply yesterday again before rebounding overnight.
  • Gold is also likely benefiting from rising expectations of a China yuan devaluation, with the currency weakening to record lows overnight.
  • China had been a major buyer of gold over 2024, with both retail and the Central Bank boosting reserves.
  • Bloomberg reports that Chinese investors made record inflows into gold ETFs last week, up $1bn, with inflows continuing this week.
  • Western ETFs have seen inflows this year, but with holdings currently around 88moz, they sit well below 2020 levels of 113moz and 2022 levels.

Additionally, there were increased concerns over the stability of the treasury market last night.

  • This pushed US treasury yields higher, with the 30 year rising to 5% from 4.4% on Friday and the 10 year rising to c.4.5% having hit 3.88% last week.
  • Additionally, the spread between Treasuries and SOFR has extended to over -60 from Q1 highs of -40bp.
  • Yields have subsequently slid somewhat, but remain well above Friday’s close.
  • The most plausible explanation for the sell-off in our reflects rising margin requirements, accelerated by hedge funds unwinding treasury long positions against interest rate swaps.
  • Swaps enable banks to gain exposure to duration without holding cash treasuries on their balance sheet.
  • Hedge funds had been betting that Trump’s administration would loosen bank regulations, enabling more treasuries on the balance sheet, boosting their value against rate swaps.
  • Currently, US banks are restricted in the amount of treasuries they can hold, whilst interest rate swaps are less capital intensive.
  • This has been unwound by the intensifying trade war, which has triggered margin calls, pushing swaps higher whilst funds are forced to sell down treasury holdings.
  • Analysts suggest the collapse of swap spreads (difference between the fixed interest rate of an interest rate swap and the yield on a government bond of the same maturity) shows banks are boosting their cash position.
  • Treasury basis trade positions can see funds leverage their capital by c.50-100x (FT).
  • This leveraged basis trade triggered the Fed to instigate an emergency cut in March 2020, although current volatility levels remain below that period.

Conclusion: Gold is enjoying a tailwind from Chinese buying over concerns of yuan devaluation amid tariff impacts and the continued deflationary environment, exacerbated by a slumping property market. However, concerns over the amount of leverage currently in the US Treasury market may also push investors into gold as a haven asset. Gold and Treasuries often compete for haven status, with Treasuries historically winning when yields were higher. However, should investors worry about the stability of the US government bond market, gold may provide the obvious alternative. When the Fed intervened in March 2020 with a 100bp emergency cut, gold subsequently rallied c.30% over the remainder of the year. Watch this space.

Coal – Trump signs executive orders to boost coal production and hopefully some new clean coal plants in the US

  • Trump is also using emergency authority to allow some older coal-fired power stations to continue to operate to meet growing demand for power in the US.

LME hikes copper initial margins by 22% as Eikon messenger system fails

  • Allot of LME brokers are said to take orders through the Eikon chat service.
  • The LME margin increase related to the extreme volatility caused by Trump’s new 104% tariffs against China.
  • Funds have cut positions to reduce risk with only long-dated index funds long on Dec-25 and Dec-26 futures thought to be left in the market

ii / interactive investor – video interviews:  

  • Is China losing its grip on African mining, inc. Sovereign Metals*, Kefi*, Atlantic Lithium*, Goldstone*, Kodal*, Yellow Cake, Kazera Global, Aterian*: 
  • Gold, inc. Goldstone*, Kefi, 
  • Trump tariffs, China and critical metals, inc. Aterian*, Atlantic Lithium*, Sovereign Metals*, Yellow Cake, Kazera Global
  • Five mining stocks to watch:  , inc. Sovereign Metals*, Kazera Global, Yellow Cake, Thor Explorations, Kodal Minerals*

*SP Angel acts for Sovereign Metals and Kodal Minerals

Sharepickers: Gold & Copper Small Caps: https://audioboom.com/posts/8693044-john-meyer-here-s-some-gold-copper-small-caps

  • Gold, copper, 13:05 Orosur*, 13:38 Oriole*, 15:25 Resolute, 16:44 Goldstone*, 17:46 Antofagasta, 18:23 Central Asia Metals, 19:56 Kavango, 20:52 Power Metal Resources, 24:25 Kefi*, 25:18 Tertiary Minerals*
  • Video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG6furFO3n4X

* SP Angel act as nomad and or broker

Dow Jones Industrials -0.84% at 37,646
Nikkei 225 -3.93% at 31,714
HK Hang Seng -0.06% at 20,116
Shanghai Composite +1.31% at 3,187
US 10 Year Yield (bp change) +6.2 at 4.35

Economics

Sentiment indicators slashed as Trump policies threaten substantial disruption

  • Exporting manufacturing countries will be hit hardest. China, Germany etc.
  • Nations which rely more on service sectors should fare better
  • Consumer confidence figures are likely to worsen substantially through April and into May
    • Australian Westpac consumer confidence fell -6% in April to 90.1 in April vs 95.9 in March
    • People surveyed before the report reported a dip in sentiment to 93.9. After the report confidence fell 10% to 86.6.
    • Outlook for the next 12 months fell -5.7% to 90.5, with the 5-year outlook falling -3.0%
    • Australian NAB business confidence -3 in March vs -2 in February
    • Australian NAB Business Conditionsrose to 4 in March from 3
    • Japanese Eco Watchers outlook index 45.2 for March 46.6 vs April
    • US NFIB business optimism index 97.4 in March vs 100.7 February
  • Even if Trump negotiates fairly with visiting nations on Tariffs, we suspect the disruption to consumer and industrial confidence will be substantial

US – Tariffs came into effect including 104% levies on Chinese imports.

  • The administration welcomed approaches from US trading partners to lower their rates with teams from Japan and South Korea are reported en route to negotiate new trade agreements.
  • “We’re doing very well in making, I call them tailored deals, not off-the-rack,” President Trump commented on latest events.
  • Not all countries are seen eager to negotiate with Canada placing a 25% counter tariff on US auto imports, France and Germany pushing for a tougher response, while China saying it is prepared for a protracted trade conflict and has ample policy tools to offset negative external shocks.
  • Risk was sold off with both S&P and Nasdaq closing down 1.6% and 2.2%, respectively, Brent approaching $60/bbl level, VIX briefly jumping over 55 and safe haven currencies like Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continuing to appreciate.

US markets look to trade lower despite Trump comments on tariff negotiations for Japan and South Korea

  • Trump’s tariff antics are likely to hit margins with additional costs in relation to transport and inventory.
    • Eg companies rushed to build inventory in the US ahead of the tariff deadlines.
    • The cost of shipping and holding this inventory is substantial
  • Israel appeared to walk away with no ‘reported’ concession on Tariffs despite offering to balance the trade imbalance with the US. We suspect a deal will be done.
  • Few countries can do this as easily as Israel as they appear keen to buy more US weapons.

Supreme Court blocks order requiring Trump administration to reinstate thousands of federal workers

  • The US Supreme Court has upheld Trump’s firing of thousands of federal employees (AP).
  • The move marks the third time in less than a week that the Supreme Court has upheld orders by the Republican administration in its fight against federal judges.

US Tourism expected to fall as travellers elect to avoid the US due to Trump despite falling US dollar

  • Tourism into the US is falling as potential visitors elect to go elsewhere.
  • The dollar index is now 1.6% lower yoy.
  • We advise travellers to cover up any neck tattoos as you might get identified as a gang member and deported to El Salvidor, though you get free flights and accommodation.

China – Beijing has not immediately responded to the new US tariffs unlike in the last two episodes when China retaliated within minutes. (Bloomberg)

  • China did release a document highlighting its willingness to talk with the US but criticised latest set of tariffs and highlighted its preparedness to “fight until the end”.
  • A delay in response provided some relief with the CSI 300 index closing higher on the day.
  • The currency continued to depreciate hitting the lowest since late 2000s.

Leaders looking to stimulus and consumer support

  • China asks major state-owned banks to reduce US dollar purchases to arrest fall in the yuan.

Chinese exporters reported to be ditching shipments mid-voyage to avoid US tariffs (SCMP)

  • One Chinese export company says its US container volume has fallen to 3-6 containers a day from 40-50.

“The loss on every container we ship is now greater than the profit we used to make from shipping two,” the employee said. “Who’s going to keep doing this?

  • China exported US$439bn worth of goods to America last year
  • The US exported just $144 bn to China. China widely uses tariffs to protect its local industry from outside competition.
  • US buyers are also cancelling orders due to rising costs with cancellations said to be totalling as many as 300 containers a day for some manufacturers.
  • Shippers are in a tough place unless goods are rerouted to the US via other destinations.

Medicines and pharmaceuticals have been exempt from tariffs for 30 years under WTO rules

  • The movement of drug manufacturing into the US from India, China, Ireland and Bangladesh will raise costs

Currencies

US$1.1059/eur vs 1.0960/eur previous. Yen 145.03/$ vs 147.06/$. SAr 19.704/$ vs 19.550/$. $1.282/gbp vs $1.278/gbp. 0.600/aud vs 0.607/aud. CNY 7.350/$ vs 7.335/$

Dollar Index 102.087 vs 102.967 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,044/oz vs US$3,009/oz previous

Gold ETFs 87.8moz vs 88.0moz previous

Platinum US$932/oz vs US$929/oz previous

Palladium US$919/oz vs US$923/oz previous

Silver US$30.3/oz vs US$30.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,300/oz vs US$5,300/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$8,612/t vs US$8,771/t previous

Aluminium US$2,312/t vs US$2,371/t previous

Nickel US$14,235/t vs US$14,600/t previous

Zinc US$2,535/t vs US$2,584/t previous

Lead US$1,850/t vs US$1,865/t previous

Tin US$31,935/t vs US$33,420/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$61.0/bbl vs US$64.6/bbl previous

  • WTI crude oil prices broke below $60/bbl for the first time in four years as fears of a trade war pushing the world into recession heightened, as the API estimated a 1mb/d w/w draw to US crude inventories.
  • European energy prices continue to fall with equity markets, as France’s nuclear generation rose 1% w/w to 71% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €35.0/MWh vs €36.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $64.4/lb vs $64.4/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (China CFR) US$96.5/t vs US$97.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.2/t vs US$468.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$186.0/t vs US$186.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$100.5/t vs US$98.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$59,930/t vs US$60,398/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,456/t vs US$9,571/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$805/t vs US$805/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$358/mtu vs US$358/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$435/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$282/t vs US$283/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,506/t vs US$1,506/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$347.5/t vs US$347.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Battery News

VW European sales more than double in Q1

  • Volkswagen Group saw deliveries of battery electric cars more than double in Q1 25.
  • Sales were up to over 150,000 from 74,400 in the same period last year.
  • EV sales in Europe have risen substantially this year so far even as total car sales have fallen, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association has shown.
  • EU emissions targets and the launch of new models are driving demand after years of slow growth.

Company News

Overnight Change Weekly Change Overnight Change Weekly Change
BHP -3.4% -10.9% Freeport-McMoRan -3.8% -23.4%
Rio Tinto -5.0% -9.6% Vale -6.5% -18.2%
Glencore -2.3% -17.6% Newmont Mining 0.2% -6.9%
Anglo American -4.4% -17.5% Fortescue -4.2% -7.8%
Antofagasta -3.3% -20.1% Teck Resources -4.3% -21.2%

American West Metals (AW1 AU) A$0.04, Mkt Cap A$21m – Equity investment and project funding with Ocean partners

  • The Company agreed a strategic partnership with Ocean Partners over funding of the Storm Copper Project in Somerset Island, Nunavut, Canada.
  • The binding heads of agreement include:
    • US$2m equity investment by Ocean Partners at A$0.042 (investment is subject to the Company raising a further US$2.0m in new equity prior to the General Meeting);
    • OP to provide up to 80% of development capex via a senior secured loan (up to $40m and a 3y maturity) facility subject to FS and formal documentation;
    • OP takes 100% offtake of copper and silver products based on PEA production forecasts.
  • Additionally, the Company will be drawing second tranche of $3.5m under the royalty facility with Taurus agreed September last year (American West to receive $2.8m of the tranche with Aston Bay getting the remaining $0.7m representing 80/20 interest split in Storm).
  • New funds will be used for:
    • Step out exploration;
    • PFS and permitting;
    • Securing of key, long lead processing and mining equipment.
  • The Company released a PEA in March 2025 envisaging an open pit operation running for 10y and producing 487kt of copper concentrate at 17.1% Cu and 49g/t Ag.
  • The plan is to use an ore sorter and a gravity circuit to recover copper contained in chalcocite for production of concentrate.
  • Capex is estimated at $47m and C1 cash costs at $2.6/lb.
  • The Project hots 20.6mt at 1.1% Cu and 3.8g/t Ag in total resources (~60% of copper contained is in Indicated category).

Aris Mining (ARIS CN) C$6.1, Mkt cap C$1.04bn – Production rises from Segovia, Colombia, on processing plant expansion

  • Aris, who hold producing assets in Colombia and exploration assets in Guyana, report 1Q25 production data.
  • Segovia produced 48koz over the period, vs 51.5koz 4Q24 and 44.9koz same period last year.
  • Marmato produced 7.2koz over the period vs 5.9koz prior quarter and 5.9koz 1Q24.
  • Aris reiterates full-year production guidance of 230-275koz Au, following expansion of Segovia processing plant due to commission this quarter.
  • Segovia expected to produce 210-250koz 2025 vs 188koz in 2024.
  • Marmato to produce 20-25koz in 2025 vs 24koz 2024.

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) 148p, Mkt Cap £272m – Sale of Copper Bay project in Chile

  • Central Asia Metals reports the completion of the sale of its 76.1% interest in the Copper Bay tailings project in Chile to Guardian Metals.
  • Guardian Metals is acquiring 100% of the project for “a total of $7.5 million in cash payable in two equal deferred instalments”.
  • The first instalment “will become payable on the production of 7,500 tonnes of copper (either in cathode or concentrate form) by the CBL assets, and the balance of $3.75 million will become payable when that production reaches 15,000 tonnes”.
  • Commenting that the company had previously written down “the carrying value of … [the Copper Bay project] … to zero … [CEO, Gavin Ferrar said that] … this transaction thus offers the potential to realise additional value for CAML shareholders in the future”.

Conclusion: The sale of its interest in the Copper Bay project could generate a future ~$5.7m when the project reaches production at pre-defined rates.

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) 3p, Mkt cap £92m – Increased PGM capacity via partnership with an existing producer

  • Jubilee Metals has partnered with an existing PGM producer for it to treat part of the surplus PGM bearing surface stocks accumulated as a result of the recent increase in chrome production which rose by over 35% to reach “a record 974,659t for the six months ending 31 December 2024”.
  • The agreement will see initial deliveries of “18 000tpm of chrome and PGM bearing material, with the potential to increase deliveries to 30 000tpm” with profits generated “shared equally”.
  • The agreement will have an initial 12 months term but “the parties may extend into a long-term agreement”.
  • CEO, Leon Coetzer, explained that, following the “construction and commissioning of the two new chrome processing modules at Thutse … expanded chrome operations have contributed to an increasing PGM surface stock produced as a by-product”.
  • He commented that the agreement “offers us the opportunity to immediately commence with the processing of our excess PGM material and has the effect of increasing our production capacity  by as much as 32% (at a 100% level) with no additional capital, when compared with our guidance for FY2025”.
  • “The increased PGM processing capacity equates to an estimated 11 500 PGM ounces per annum assuming a feed rate of 30,000tpm … in addition to the Company’s existing PGM processing capacity”.
  • When it released its interim results at the end of March, Jubilee Metals confirmed that it was “on track to meet full year guidance of 36 000oz” suggesting that the additional production generated by the agreement with the PGM producer will generate a meaningful increase when it reaches the 30ktpm treatment rate.

Conclusion: Increased chrome output in South Africa has generated increased surface stocks of PGM bearing material which will now be processed in partnership with an existing producer generating an increase of ~30% in production capacity without any additional capital.

Liontown Resources (LTR AU) A$0.5, Mkt Cap $A1.1bn – Start of underground mining at Kathleen Valley

  • The Company commenced underground stoping at the Kathleen Valley Lithium Mine in Western Australia.
  • The first blast was fired on schedule and ~1,500t of ore extracted, part of an initial stope designed to provide ~12kt (~two days worth of plant throughput).
  • Trial processing of underground material delivered lithia recovery exceeding 70% based on a ~1.5% Li2O processed material.
  • The focus on continuing with underground infrastructure development advancing the decline and opening additional working areas.
  • The plan is to ramp up underground operations focusing on high margin ore transitioning to 100% underground operation by 4QFY26.

Montage Gold* (MAU CN) C$3, Mkt cap C$1.05bn – Exploration update amid focus on higher-grade satellite deposits

  • Montage Gold, developer of the Koné project in Cote D’Ivoire, reports an update on its exploration efforts.
  • The Company drilled 81,000m in 2024, targeting higher-grade satellite targets to supplement production.
  • Montage has an objective to add 1moz at a 50% higher grade vs the Koné deposit.
  • The drilling has added 150koz indicated at 0.57g/t Au to Koné and 110koz at 0.43g/t Au in inferred.
  • Drilling has added to the wider project, boosting to an additional 340koz at 0.62g/t Au in Indicated and 380koz at 0.54g/t Au.
  • Montage reports mineralisation confirmed at 18 exploration targets, with starter maiden resources delineated at seven higher grade satellites.
  • The satellite deposits, excluding Gbongogo, have added 160koz at 1.15g/t Au Indicated and 270koz at 1g/t Au inferred.
  • Focus of the drilling was to ‘delineate only a small portion of the orebodies to assess the grade profiles in order to prioritise 2025 drill efforts.’
  • Company has advanced an additional six targets to the pre-resource definition stage.
  • Montage has approved a 90,000m drilling programme over 2025.
  • Company is guiding for first pour in 2Q27, expected to produce 301koz over the first eight years of production at $998/oz.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Montage Gold

New Frontier Minerals  (NFM LN) 0.65p, Mkt Cap £9.5m – Rock-chip sample results from the Harts Range project

  • New Frontier Minerals reports that rock chip analysis of 25 samples recovered from the Cusp and Bobs prospects at its Harts Range project northeast of Alice Springs in the Northern Territory, Australia has identified heavy rare-earth mineralisation.
  • Results range up to “11.75% Dysprosium Oxide and 1.87% Terbium Oxide within the Total Rare Earth Element (TREO) mix”.
  • Thirteen samples from the Cusp prospect show that it “is particularly rich in Dysprosium (11.76%, Dy2O3) and Terbium (1.18%, Tb4O7), with a rare earth basket that comprises over 92% heavy rare earth minerals… [and a] … combined Dysprosium and Terbium distribution at the Cusp Prospect makes up 13.63% of the total rare earth oxide (TREO) basket mix”.
  • The remaining 12 samples taken from the Bobs prospect, located “1.6km along strike from Cusp … on the same major east-west trending structure … [show a] … similar mineralisation and geological setting”.
  • “The rare earth distribution at Bobs showed higher Yttrium (71.06%, Y2O3) while still rich in heavy lanthanides Dysprosium (8.75%, Dy2O3) and Terbium (1.18%, Tb4O7). The overall heavy rare earth basket mix at Bobs was higher, comprising over 97% heavy rare earths” with dysprosium and terbium comprising 9.93% of the total rare earths oxides.
  • Today’s announcement highlights the critical importance of rare earth elements “in various industries including defence and high-tech industries and Chairman, Ged Hall, commented that “China’s recent announcement to restrict the export of these critical heavy rare earths highlights the urgent need for alternative sources of supply”.
  • He said that “New Frontier is well-placed to seize this unique opportunity to explore and develop new sources of heavy rare earths at the Harts Range Project”.

Conclusion: Results from early-stage rock-chip sampling at the Harts Range project have confirmed rare-earth mineralisation, including heavy rare-earths at the Bobs and Cusp prospects. We await further news with interest.

Peabody (BTU US) $11, Mkt cap $1.4bn – Assessing acquisition of Anglo American’s steelmaking coal assets

  • American coal miner Peabody reported last night that it is ‘reviewing all options related to its acquisition of steelmaking coal assets from Anglo American.’
  • The miner suggested this was triggered by an ignition event at Anglo’s Moranbah North mine last week.
  • Peabody agreed to pay US$3.8bn in November 2024 for the assets.
  • The payment includes US$2.05bn in cash, deferred cash consideration of US$725m, price-linked earnout of up to US$550m and contingent cash consideration of $450m.
  • Peabody took a US$2.1bn bridge financing commitment to support the funding of the transaction.
  • Coking coal prices have risen recently from $171/t lows in Singapore to $191/t.

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) 26.3p, Mkt Cap £54m – Cullinan sales tender postponed in response to US tariff uncertainty

  • Petra Diamonds has announced the postponement of its Tender 5 diamond sale at the Cullinan mine in S Africa in response to the diamond market uncertainty triggered by the US tariff impositions.
  • The company says that “Tender 5 sales for the Cullinan Mine were originally expected to complete by the end of this week … [but that it has] … decided to postpone its Tender 5 sales for the Cullinan Mine (c. 200,000 carats) until there is greater clarity around the impact of the tariffs”.
  • Explaining that Cullinan “has a history of experiencing product mix variability” Petra Diamonds says that the diamonds “postponed from the Tender 5 sale have experienced product mix variability … caused by a lower number of gem quality stones than expected, specifically in the +10.8 carat category … [resulting] … in lower than anticipated revenues and average prices for the Cullinan Mine’s goods in Tenders 3 and 4, as announced in December 2024 and February 2025, respectively.
  • Variability is “expected given the maturity of the C-Cut ore-body and we expect the product mix at Cullinan Mine to normalise as the proportion of fresh ore from the CC1E project increases”.
  • Petra Diamonds also reports today on the Tender 5 sales, totalling 175,643 carats from its Finsch and Williamson mines (Tender 4 – 181,857 carats)  which “were concluded prior to the recent announcement of the US tariffs”.
  • These sales generated revenues of US$18m at an average price of US$101/carat (Tender 4 – US$17m at an average US$93/carat).
  • We observe that noted diamond producer, Lesotho, was subject to one of the highest initial US ‘reciprocal trade tariff’ rates at 50% underlining the impact on the sector at time of uncertainty for rough diamond sales.

Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) 0.02p Mkt Cap £0.9m – Shining a spotlight on precious metals projects

  • Sunrise Resources has profiled its portfolio of precious metals projects in Nevada and Australia in the light of prevailing gold prices and “the gold to silver price ratio climbing towards record highs” which the company suggests “may be a sign that the silver price is due a major upward correction”
  • The company classes the projects as ‘available for sale or joint venture while it focusses on its industrial minerals projects including its natural pozzolan projects in Nevada.
  • The projects outlined in today’s announcement are:
    • The wholly owned Clayton epithermal silver/gold project in Nevada which hosts historic workings and drilling results from Sunrise Resources’ own work including an intersection of “a 7.92m mineralised interval graded 303 g/t (8.84 ounces/ton) silver and 0.2 g/t gold (from 82.30m down hole)”; and
    • The wholly owned Newark ‘Carlin style’ gold project, also in Nevada, where “Reconnaissance Hole NWK8 drilled in 1986 intersected 47m of gold-anomalous jasperoid containing an average 0.14 ppm gold from 75m to the end of hole at 122m … [and where the company suggests that] … Deeper drilling is required to test the favourable target horizons”; and
    • The wholly owned Reese Ridge zinc/silver/lead/gallium project in Nevada where it has outlined a “Drill ready ZTEM geophysical anomaly with overlying high grade oxide/carbonate zinc mineralisation, a target of carbonate replacement style mineralisation” and where surface samples over a wide area have returned “High grade zinc, lead and silver”; and
    • The Bay State silver project in Nevada where it holds a lease option to purchase a ‘drill-ready’ area hosting “Historical silver production from … [the] … 900m long Chihuahua Vein system; and
    • The wholly-owned ‘drill-ready’ Baker’s gold project in Australia follow-up drilling is needed to “test a gold-in soil anomaly on DLR4 Target and it has already completed a single drill traverse of five holes totalling 589m including an intersection of 2m at an average grade of 14.36g/t gold from a depth of 64m in hole 21SBRC-002.
  • Emphasising the company’s commitment to its industrial minerals projects, Executive Chairman, Patrick Cheetham, explained that “it is timely that the Company highlights to investors, shareholders and potential partners the extent of our portfolio of precious metal projects as the value inherent in these projects is often overlooked. All are drill ready and most are owned 100% by the Company without underlying royalty or other interests”.

Conclusion: Sunrise Resources highlights the potential of its non-core precious metals projects in the context of buoyant commodity prices while emphasising its commitment to progress its industrial minerals projects.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Sources of commodity prices  
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt LME
Oil Brent ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore NYMEX
Thermal Coal Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal SSY
RRE Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile Asian Metal

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return


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