Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, warns that President Trump is making a bold gamble with his aggressive tariff strategy.
“Today, Donald Trump is going all in,” Stanzl said. “While there’s a chance he could secure improved trade deals on multiple fronts, the outcome remains shrouded in uncertainty.”
He cautions that taking a confrontational stance against much of the global community could provoke a unified backlash. “It’s a mistake to assume other nations will simply yield to his demands,” Stanzl noted, adding that recent stability in Germany’s DAX index reflects optimism that Trump might eventually compromise.
Despite enjoying strong electoral support at home, the U.S. economy is on shaky ground, teetering on the edge of recession. Trump may project confidence in his ability to trigger and control a downturn, but such a tactic is fraught with risk—particularly when compared to the fiscal policies of “Bidenomics.” Though those policies contributed to significant debt, they also fostered a prolonged period of growth in 2023 and 2024, even as global economies struggled.
Stanzl points out that U.S. bond markets have been flashing warning signs since July 2022, yet a recession has yet to hit. “But once it begins,” he said, “it can spiral quickly and become difficult—and costly—to contain. If the rest of the world sees through Trump’s bluff, the consequences he’ll have to navigate could be enormous.”
