SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 9th December 2024

Metals gain as Global growth firms and China loosens monetary policy stance

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Nearing completion of redomiciling the company to Spain

Condor Gold* (CNR LN) – Shareholder meeting to consider offer from Metals Exploration

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Further metallurgical results following acid leaching testwork

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) – Update on Homase Mine and Convertible Loan Note

Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – Initial gold pour at Telfer

Lundin Mining (LUN C) – Sale of mines to Boliden for US$1.5bn to support South American growth opportunities

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – More high-grade drill results from surface as Pepas discovery potential looms

Thor Energy (THR LN) – Extending the mineralisation envelope at the Groundhog project, Colorado

Versarien* (VRS LN) – Biosensor chip with graphene barrister triode sensor launched

Metals gain as China loosens monetary policy stance

• Zinc, copper and iron ore all rallied, whilst aluminium and nickel weakened marginally.
• Copper rose to $9,200/t whilst iron ore strengthened above $105/t again.
• China’s Politburo stated that Beijing ‘must implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies.’
• China bond yields fell again, whilst the equity index rallied.
• Beijing continued to emphasise the need to boost consumption and expand domestic demand.

Gold ($2,657/oz) breaks out of trading range as Treasury yields push lower on mixed jobs report

• Gold prices have pushed out of their recent tight range of $2,620-2,650/oz.
• The move follows a rally in US Government bonds last week, with the 10 year hitting recent lows of 4.13%, down from October highs of 4.5%.
• The NFP report came in at 227k jobs added vs 214k expected.
• However, the Unemployment rate ticked up, nearing 4.3%.
• The October report was revised from 12k to 36k.
• Gold traditionally benefits from ETF inflows when US Treasury yields slide.
• The market is now pricing an 87% chance of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 62% last week.

Global composite PMI growth rises to 52.4 as India, the US and China show positive momentum

• Global composite PMI growth rises to 52.4 vs 52.3 in October
• India continues to record strong economic growth with its Composite PMI at 58.6 vs 59.1 in October.
• The US S&P composite PMI continues to strengthen to 54.9 vs 54.1 in October.
• China’s Official composite PMI at 50.8 is lower than the Caixin survey of 52.3 leading us to wonder if China Inc wants to play down its recovery
• Europe is struggling to arrest economic decline, dragged down by the impact of the war in Ukraine combined with its need to transition to Electric Vehicle production
• Metals traders are looking for a recovery in China which maybe the government is keeping under wraps till it works out how to play Donald Trump

The fall of Syria sets the stage for a new order in the Middle East and marks a key event in the unravelling of Autocratic and malevolent regimes

Today’s terrorist can be tomorrow’s freedom fighter

• Assad flees Syria for Moscow as prisoners are freed from Syria’s ‘human slaughterhouse’ cells.
• The HTS rebels, named after their leader, Tahrir al-Sham and previously known as the Nusra Front appear to have won a convincing victory in Syria.
• The rapid fall of Aleppo and then Damascus has forced Bashar Al-Assad to flee Syria
• Russia and Iran had propped up al-Assad‘s regime for years but their depleted forces failed to support al-Assad when the HTS rebels advanced.
• The Russian navy started withdrawing its fleet and other military assets over a week ago as the
• Iran had backed Assad using the country as a route to supply weapons into Lebanon for Hezbollah.
• Russia also loses naval and airbases in Syria and is unlikely to be welcomed back
• Turkey, which has troops in North West Syria has backed the rebels and should gain favour amongst the new government.
• Israel has bombed weapons facilities in Syria and will likely cutoff the trade route from Iran into Lebanon.
• The fall of Syria looks like an important step to the reordering of power within the Middle East. Iraq is next and Iran may follow.

121 Mining Investment Conference – Investment Leaders – Alternative Finance Panel

• https://www.theassay.com/videos/panels-presentations/investment-leaders-panel-alternative-financing-strategies-whats-best-for-the-junior-market-at-this-moment/

Economics

US – Positive employment figures

• Fed Reserve FOMC rate decision due this week
• Preliminary Dec University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumped to 74.0 fir December vs 71.8 previously mainly driven by a 13.8pt rise in the current conditions index

 Mali – Arrest warrant issued for Mark Bristow, CEO at Barrick Gold

• Bristow is being prosecuted for money laundering with the Mali state seeking payment of unpaid taxes and profits from the Loulo Gounkoto gold complex.
• Mark Bristow made his name in Mali through the identification and discovery of Randgold Resources’ Morila gold mine and has worked extensively in the region for around 30 years.
• While this is a blow for Bristow and for Barrick, we feel that not everything the Mali government does is bad.

UK – 12 named storms in the UK this year with 118,000 homes without power

• The UK has been hit hard by Storm Bertie two weeks ago and Storm Darragh this weekend
• England saw 75.5mm of rain in November vs an average of 82mm from 1991-2020.
• Wales by contrast saw a massive 134.3mm of rain in November vs 83mm from 1991-2020 so Welsh leeks will be growing particularly large this year.

Currencies

US$1.0560/eur vs 1.0582/eur previous. Yen 150.42/$ vs 150.32/$. SAr 17.901/$ vs 18.035/$. $1.276/gbp vs $1.276/gbp. 0.643/aud vs 0.643/aud. CNY 7.274/$ vs 7.260/$.

Dollar Index 106.05 vs 105.74 previous

Precious Metals

Gold US$2,650/oz vs US$2,640/oz previous

Gold ETFs 83.0moz vs 83.0moz previous

Platinum US$943/oz vs US$938/oz previous

Palladium US$978/oz vs US$976/oz previous

Silver US$31.3/oz vs US$31.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,575/oz vs US$4,575/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,215/t vs US$9,128/t previous

Aluminium US$2,618/t vs US$2,615/t previous

Nickel US$16,075/t vs US$16,040/t previous

Zinc US$3,129/t vs US$3,103/t previous

Lead US$2,091/t vs US$2,099/t previous

Tin US$29,310/t vs US$29,110/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$71.8/bbl vs US$72.0/bbl previous

• There has been a limited impact on energy prices this morning from the chaotic events in the Middle East over the weekend, which saw the rebels oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and end his family’s 50-year rule.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count was up 7 to 589 units last week (-37 or 6% y/y), with oil rigs up 5 to 482 units (-21 y/y) and gas rigs up 2 to 102 units (-17 y/y), as the State of Texas gained 5 rigs to 286 units (-22 y/y).

Natural Gas €45.6/MWh vs €46.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.4/lb vs $77.2/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$105.4/t vs US$104.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$487.2/t vs US$489.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$205.0/t vs US$205.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$132.3/t vs US$132.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$24,300/t vs US$24,300/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$56,638/t vs US$56,749/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,035/t vs US$10,124/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$790/t vs US$790/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$985/t vs US$985/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$338/mtu vs US$338/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$440/t vs US$440/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$26.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$299/t vs US$300/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,120/t vs US$1,123/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$64.9/t vs US$64.9/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$290.0/t vs US$287.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$430.0/kg vs US$430.0/kg

Battery News

US sees record high EV and hybrid sales in Q3

• According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), sales of EVs and hybrids reached an all-time high in Q3.
• In Q3, the combined sales of hybrid, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) made up 19.6% of all new light-duty vehicle sales.
• This was up from 19.1% in Q2 and continued the trend of steady growth of electrified vehicles in the US.
• BEV sales were down slightly from Q2, to 7.0% from 7.4% share, while hybrids now hold a share of 10.8%.

Stellantis to develop Lithium-Sulphur batteries with Zeta Energy

• Stellantis and Zeta Energy have announced a joint development agreement aimed at advancing battery cell technology for EV applications.
• The collaboration aims to develop a significantly lighter battery pack with the same usable energy, enabling greater range, improved handling and enhanced performance.
• Lithium-sulphur technology has the potential to improve fast-charging speed by up to 50%, and the batteries are expected to cost less than half the price per kWh of current lithium-ion batteries.
• The batteries will be produced using waste materials and methane, with significantly lower CO2 emissions than any existing battery technology.
• The companies want to bring the batteries to market by 2030.

Company News

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 354p, Mkt Cap £496m – Nearing completion of redomiciling the company to Spain

• Atalaya Mining confirms that the Nicosia District Court in Cyprus has approved its plans to redomicile the company from Cyprus to Spain.
• Today’s announcement describes the issue of a “pre-conversion certificate … [by the Court as] … the final approval required from the Cypriot Public Administration”.
• “The Certificate will now be transmitted to Spain to complete the necessary administrative procedures required for the formal registration of the Company in Spain. These final steps are expected to be completed in the coming weeks”.

Conclusion: Apart from the recently announced move into exploration in Sweden, Atalaya Mining’s operations are located in Spain and we see formal Spanish domicile as appropriate recognition of the operational reality.

Condor Gold* (CNR LN) 28p, Mkt Cap £57m – Shareholder meeting to consider offer from Metals Exploration

(Condor Resources holds 100% of the La India gold mining project)

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• Following the recommendation, last week, of a £67.5m offer from Metal Exploration, Condor Gold has submitted documents to the Companies Court for permission to convene a meeting of its Shareholders on 13^th January.
• The assent of 75% of attending shareholders will be required to allow the scheme of arrangement with Metals Exploration to proceed.
• Last week’s announcement confirmed both the support of Condor Gold’s directors and also that Condor Gold’s largest shareholder, Galloway Limited, has given “an irrevocable undertaking … to vote … in favour of, or accept … the proposed acquisition by Metals Exploration”.
• The company’s disclosure under AIM Rule 26 shows Galloway Limited holding ~50.2m shares representing around 24.5% of the 204.4m shares in issue

Conclusion: The recommended offer from Metals Exploration is to be considered by Condor Gold’s shareholders in January.

*SP Angel acts as a broker to Condor Gold

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 6.7p, Mkt Cap £43m – Further metallurgical results following acid leaching testwork

• Empire reports results from their large-scale titanium project in Western Australia.
• The Company has been exploring the route to convert the anatase into a high-grade feedstock product, at >95%.
• Initially, the Team has explored gravity separation followed by flotation.
• Today, Empire reports sighter leach testwork using acid bake-water wash leaching.
• The Company states that the ‘leach response was very positive with 95% dissolution achieved on the anatase.’
• Gangue silicate dissolution reported at 29% and iron oxides and hydroxide dissolution reported at 13%.
• As a result, Empire believes the anatase ‘can be easily leached through relatively simple and known hydrometallurgical processes.’
• Empire notes that the concentrate sample contained c.7% Fe-Ti oxide group minerals, with further work planned to improve extraction.
• Company is continuing their ore characterisation work to develop a better understanding of the distribution of titanium-bearing minerals in the weathered zone.

Conclusion: Empire continues to progress the crucial metallurgical testwork to progress and derisk the giant Pitfield titanium project. The dissolution of 95% of the anatase via leaching is encouraging, and further work will be required to generate a high-grade titanium feedstock. We see Empire’s top tier titanium metallurgical team as the key to unlocking the potential of Pitfield. We look forward to further updates as the Company continues to advance potential flowsheet options.

 *SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Goldstone Resources* (GRL LN) 1.2p, Mkt Cap £8m – Update on Homase Mine and Convertible Loan Note

• The Company reports continued progress in the Homase ramp up.
• Production remains on track to meet expectations for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.
• Company repots a 34% increase in production, producing 380oz in November (2024 average monthly production of 250oz.)
• Cell six and seven construction continues to progress, supporting ramp up into 2025.
• Management expects to meet stated production guidance of 1,000ozpcm from January 2025.
• As regards the Convertible Loan Note, Goldstone has agreed a Standstill Agreement until 20^th December 2024 with Blue Gold.
• Management ‘remains confident that a resolution will be agreed and the Company will provide a further update in due course.’

*SP Angel acts as broker to Goldstone Resources

Greatland Gold (GGP LN) 7.3p, Mkt Cap £950m – Initial gold pour at Telfer

• Greatland Gold confirms the production of its initial gold from the recently acquired Telfer gold mine in WA.
• Last week, Greatland Gold completed the acquisition of the Telfer mine and the 70% of the Havieron project which it does not own and the nearby Telfer gold mine in WA from Newmont Mining.
• Managing Director, Shaun Day, described “Greatland’s first ever gold production at Telfer … [as] …a wonderful milestone and a credit to our team”.
• He also said that in the “combination of a strong gold price and significant ore stockpiles at surface makes this a tremendous time to own the Telfer mine … [and that] …we are delighted to have resumed dual train processing operations in line with our Telfer mine plan”.
• The company also takes the opportunity to describe its gold hedging programme for 2025 which covers the sale of a total 150,000oz of gold at an average price of A$3,905/oz.
• The programme of ‘put options’ provides Greatland Gold “the right, but not obligation, to sell gold, therefore providing a minimum downside price protection for the protected ounces while retaining full upside exposure to the gold price across 100% of Telfer production volumes”.
• In the FY to June 2023, under Newcrest Mining’s management, Telfer produced around 349,000oz of gold.

Conclusion: Although the Telfer mine has been in operation for many years the initial gold-pour under Greatland Gold’s management is a significant event in the company’s history. We look forward to completion of the project Feasibility Study for the nearby Havieron project in H2 2025.

Lundin Mining (LUN C) C$14, Mkt Cap C$11bn – Sale of mines to Boliden for US$1.5bn to support South American growth opportunities

• Lundin Mining has sold Neves-Corvo in Portugal and Zinkgruvan in Sweden to Boliden.
• Boliden will pay US$1.37bn in cash, with a US$150m contingent cash consideration on certain conditions.
• The Company will use the cash to strengthen its balance sheet as it advances growth plans in the Vicuna District.
• Lundin recently acquired a 50% stake in Filo del Sol alongside BHP, with the family also progressing NGEX’s Lunahuasi over the border in Chile.
• The contingency payment is linked to underlying copper and zinc prices.

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 6.75p, Mkt Cap £13m – More high-grade drill results from surface as Pepas discovery potential looms

(Anzá 100% indirect ownership proposed)

• Orosur reports drilling results from their Pepas project, with a second hole now assayed.
• The Company reports results from PEP013, following PEP012, which returned 67m at 5.64g/t Au from surface.
• Today, Orosur’s PEP013 returned 77m at 7.7g/t Au from surface.
• The hole intersected mineralised tufts similar to those seen in PEP001 and PEP012.
• Importantly, whilst PEP012 was drilled as a confirmatory hole, PEP013 was intended to be more orthogonal to the interpreted trend of mineralisation.
• Mineralisation is now believed to be striking Southeast to Northwest, with the hole intersecting the basement fault at near predicted depths.
• Two further holes are planned on the same dip and azimuth as PEP013, but moved to the NW.
• The two further holes have been drilled to further define mineralisation, with pierce points into the basement fault expected to support a better understanding of the mineralised trend.
• PEP014 assays will be available shortly whilst PEP015 has been completed and assays have been sent for analysis.
• A third hole PEP016, is located to the SW and is intended to test downdip extensions and assess the extent of Pepas.

Conclusion: Today’s intersection demonstrates high grades from surface over wide intersections. The developing exploration progress at Pepas positions Orosur as one of the most exciting discovery stories in the sector. Further assays are due imminently and will help guide the Orosur team in interpreting the mineralisation of the Project. PEP016 hole will begin the step out drilling at Pepas, and provide some insight over the potential scale of gold mineralisation at hand.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Thor Energy (THR LN) 0.75p, Mkt Cap £3.8m – Extending the mineralisation envelope at the Groundhog project, Colorado

• Thor Energy reports gamma logging results from its recently complected reverse-circulation (RC) drilling campaign at itsGroundhog prospect in the Uravan mineral belt of southwestern Colorado.
• The nine hole, 979m campaign yielded “Shallow, narrow, high-grade uranium mineralisation” including intersections of:
  • “up to 0.16% … eU₃O₈ in … [hole] … 24WBRA009 at 114m … [which] … extends the known mineralisation 100m to the North”; and
  • “up to 0.06% (0.6m … eU₃O₈ in …[hole] … 24WBRA007 at 109m… [which also] … extends the known mineralisation 300m to the East”; and
  • “Shallow, narrow, high-grade uranium mineralisation intersected with uranium grades from downhole gamma logging up to 0.11% … eU₃O₈ in … [hole] … 24WBRA001 at 83m”.
• The company confirms that its drilling has been suspended “due to heavy early-season snow”.
• Executive Chairman, Alastair Clayton, noted that the “Saltwash-style Uranium deposits … [seen at the Groundhog prospect] … typically pinch and swell over relatively small distances, so we are pleased to have extended the known mineralised footprint by so much … [although] … the intersections indicated in gamma logging from this programme are narrower than we had hoped”.

Conclusion: Initial results from the latest RC drilling at the Groundhog prospect extend the footprint of uranium mineralisation to the north and east albeit with intersection widths narrower than hoped.  We look forward to the resumption of drilling next year following suspension with the arrival of early snow.

Versarien* (VRS LN) 0.033p, Mkt Cap £1.38m – Biosensor chip with graphene barrister triode sensor launched

• Versarien Plc report the launch of a new biosensor chip which utilises new graphene barristor sensor platform technology.
• The graphene barristor device, developed in South Korea by ‘A Barristor Company’ will utilise chemical vapour deposition grown graphene which is produced under a Versarien licence.
• Versarien has a distribution agreement ‘A Barristor Company’ for the use of its graphene in the devices.
  • The triode device is a new type of graphene-based transistor with a Schottky barrier between graphene and silicon.
  • The current modulation is amplified more than 10,000 times compared to graphene field-effect transistors (GFET) enabling the barristor transistors to overcome many GFET limitations. 
  • In these new products, the graphene surface is terminated with either pyrenebutanoic acid succinimidyl ester (“PBASE”) or a customer preferred linker. 
  • PBASE is one of the most frequently used linkers for the surface modification of field-effect transistor (FET) biosensors based on carbon nanotubes and graphene.  The products can be supplied as individual chips or on a wafer scale.
  • It is expected that the CVD graphene used in the products will be supplied by MCK Tech in South Korea, which is an existing licencing partner of Versarien, and it will also undertake some of the device fabrication.
  • The range of sensor products to be distributed by Versarien may be expanded at a later date based on ABC’s product developments, such as in infrared detection, gas/chemical detection, temperature detection or multiple sensor on a chip technology.
• Versarien has a £4.7m pipeline of opportunities with £1.6m of commercial work and £3.1m of grant funding.
• Management have previously agreed the sale of AAC Cyroma, it’s plastics manufacturing business to Harper Bennett for £550,000.
• The team continue to advance their graphene and 2D materials business lines with graphene inks going into shoes and leisure wear clothing.
• Versarien are also working to develop a new range of graphene-infused paints and wood finishing products.

Conclusion: The move into Biosensor devices is further positive news for the Versarien team. Biosensors are a substantial and fast growing high-tech and consumer market.We look forward to further news on the rollout of devices containing Versarien graphene.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Versarien

 LSE Group Starmine awards for Q3 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Previous Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q3 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q3 2024

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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