Last month, Chinese companies rushed to export goods amid the anticipated threat of tariffs under Donald Trump’s presidency.
In October, China’s exports surged at their fastest rate in over two years as factories moved quickly to clear stock to key markets, anticipating further tariffs from the U.S. and European Union.
Trump’s decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election has underscored his campaign promise to impose tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese imports.
Outbound shipments rose by 12.7% year-over-year, far surpassing the expected 5.2% increase and September’s 2.4% growth, according to customs data.
Exports to the U.S. grew at an 8.1% annual rate, while shipments to Europe rose by 12.7% over the same period.
Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, commented, “We can expect a significant increase in shipments during the fourth quarter, before the pressure ramps up in 2025.”
“The Trump factor is making the threat more tangible,” he added.
Trump’s tariff warnings have unsettled Chinese factory owners and officials, with up to $500 billion (£387 billion) in annual exports at risk.
Meanwhile, trade tensions with the EU have intensified. Last year, the EU imported $466 billion (£360 billion) worth of Chinese goods, but recent tariffs of up to 37% on Chinese electric vehicles have heightened the strain.
Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics, noted, “We expect strong exports in the coming months. The potential impact of Trump’s tariffs may not be felt until the latter half of next year.”
“Trump’s return might even spur a short-term boost in Chinese exports as U.S. buyers ramp up orders to bypass the tariffs,” Huang added.
On the other hand, China’s imports dropped by 2.3%, marking the first negative result in four months and missing expectations of a 1.5% decline.
