SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Wednesday 2nd October 2024

Base metals continue to rise following China stimulus

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Jewish New Year today – L’shana tovah u’metukah

Capstone Copper (CS CN) – Mantoverde commercial production declared with MV-O FS released

EQ Resources (EQR AU) – September hits production record

Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN AU) – Update on Fission uranium transaction

Thor Explorations* (THX LN) – Response to Press Speculation over unpaid taxes

Tribe Technology (TRYB LN) – Test results of reverse-circulation sampling technology show improved sample quality

Gold ($2,652/oz) pares gains after safe haven buying in wake of Iranian strike on Israel

• Gold prices rallied $40/oz yesterday to $2,666/oz after Iran responded to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah with a barrage of missiles into Israel.
• The metal rallied alongside oil and traditional safe haven assets, namely US Treasuries and the Dollar.
• It subsequently pared gains, following Iranian statements.
• JOLTs data came in above expectations but quits data showed further signs of labour market deterioration, with the private sector quits index sliding to 2015 levels.
• Focus today will be on US ADP data, for an insight into private employment, before NFP data due Friday.

Industrial metals steady as China buying cools amid national holiday

• Copper prices are holding higher levels, settling above $10,000/oz following last week’s rally.
• Iron ore has ticked higher but volatility seems to have eased as Chinese buyers pull out of the market for their Autumn holiday.
• Analysts continue to weigh the implications of China’s recent stimulus round, with concerns remaining over the oversupply of residential property.

Zinc – Korea Zinc buyback authorised to fend off takeout approach

• Major global Zinc player is battling a takeover from private equity firm MBK Partners and its largest shareholder, Young Poong.
• The Company has authorised a buyback of $2bn to fend off the approach.
• The Company has also received commitments from US PE firm Bain Capital to buy a 2.5% stake.
• The move followed a Soeul court’s decision to dismiss an injunction requested by the offeror to block a buyback.
• Korea Zinc controls 12% of ex-China zinc production, 5% of lead and 9% of silver.
• Concerns have been raised that the buyer will break up the conglomerate and sell off assets to China, further bolstering their dominance in downstream metals supply.

High purity quartz – concerns mount over high purity quartz supply after hurricane shutters two North Carolina mines

• Sibelco and Quartz Corp have both shuttered quartz operations in North Carolina following damage from Hurricane Helene.
• BloombergNEF estimated last year that the two operations account for over 80% of global highpurity quartz supply.
• The high purity quartz is fed into the solar and semiconductor industries to produce the inner layer of crucibles.
• Spruce Pine is has been hit hard by flooding and power and communication outages, with emergency response teams called to the town.
• The current high-purity sand quartz stands at 20,000tpa US demand.
• Solar crucible prices had rallied fivefold between 2022-2023.
• The Chinese also have production capacity, with companies Feilihua, Triumph and Jianghan all looking to boost operations.
• However, analysts note the limited options for mine replacements, owing to the unique nature of the Spruce Pine orebodies and purification options.
• There is quartz mined elsewhere that is suitable for outer crucible layers, but the higher-purity requirements for inner layers are raising supply concerns.
• Analysts expect the disruption to boost the transition towards using synthetic quartz, which is produced from silicon tetrachloride by chemical producers including Mistubishi.
• Synthetic products are much more expensive to produce and supply chains haven’t been rolled out yet.

This is Why Gold is Rising and It Will Probably Continue:

• Podcast: https://audioboom.com/posts/8547593-john-meyer-this-has-one-of-the-lowest-risk-profiles-i-ve-seen-for-a-long-time

Economics

US – August job openings, an indicator of labour demand, climbed to a three month high coming in stronger than expected ahead of eagerly awaited NFPs due this Friday.

• The Fed decided to cut rates at the September meeting by 50bps partly in response to soft labour numbers released earlier.
• Market odds for another 50bp move at one of coming meetings in November or December have been coming down, although, the consensus remains for three 25bp cuts before YE24.
• JOLTS Jop Openings (Aug/Jul/Est): 8,404k/7,711k(revised from 7,673k)/7,693k

China – The nation is celebrating week long National Day with mainland markets only to reopen next Tuesday.

Japan – BOJ Governor offered dovish comments regarding the policy outlook ahead of planned general elections due later this month.

• “Starting with the US economy, the outlook of the global economy is uncertain and financial markets remain unstable,” Kazuo Ueda said in a speech at a conference in Tokyo.
• “We will watch these developments with an extremely high sense of urgency for the time being.”
• New PM and one of his cabinet ministers clearly signalled earlier they opposed any early rate moves.
• Markets are not expecting any rate hikes before mid-2025 at least.
• The yen is off against the US$ this morning trading at over 144.

Israel/Iran – Estimated 200 ballistic missiles were launched at Israel by Iran on Tuesday with most reported to have been intercepted.

• The attack was a retaliation to Israeli attack on Lebanon-based Hezbollah that took out all of its high command.
• Citizens were warned to take bomb shelter that coupled with strong air defences allowed to mostly avoid casualties.
• One person in the West Bank was reported killed as a result of the attack.
• Iran cautioned Israel against any retaliation.
• The US Pentagon estimated that the latest attack was about “twice the scope” of the attack in April with PM Benjamin Netanyahu promising a response.
• Meanwhile, Israeli troops progressed with a ground operation in Lebanon, the first one since 2006.

Is profound global change coming?

• Strategists and economists sometimes ask how has the world changed?
• We see a good chance for profound global change:
• Political change:
  • Russia – change is coming. Russia has amassed >2,300t of gold to back its currency and support its economy. Russia is using this gold to buy weapons etc…
  • Ukraine – rebuilding of Ukraine will create new demand for commodities.
  • Middle East – eradication of terrorist organisations could enable reconstruction and growth of a better system. Iran remains dangerous but is likely to be subdued.
  • Europe – it suits the EU and UK to redefine its trading relationships now much of the animosity of Brexit is hopefully in the past.
• Economic change
  • Russia is not much of an economic force anymore and looks more like a subsidiary of China.
  • China is also raising greater municipal and government debt to revitalise its property and construction sector.
    • China is struggling to gain leadership in high-tech manufacturing at huge cost while developing EV, Aerospace and Semiconductor manufacturing.
    • A number of EV manufacturers and suppliers will collapse or be absorbed into their rivals.
    • Short term money supply recently fell to worryingly low levels in China causing growth to slow
    • Many component manufacturers have been moving out of China into the Tiger economics and the US
    • China appears to be recognising the need to support a level of welfare services to persuade its people to buy property and drive consumption.
    • The reconfiguring of apartments designed under the one-child policy to support larger families comes at a cost.
  • The US Fed has just opted for growth through a 50bp rate cut. The new strategy is to prioritise growth and job creation.
    • Reshoring is ongoing and if the China supply chain collapses, then the West is now better able to manage.
    • Tariffs: the west can not afford to entirely block Chinese imports due to disruption and its inflationary impact.
  • European manufacturing is contracting fast than local politicians have wanted to admit to
    • High energy prices will continue to hold Europe back for years. The collapse of Recaro, the car seat manufacturer is an example of a disruptive European event.
• Technological change:
  • • Electric Vehicles reduce need for petrol and diesel, are more efficient and cheaper to run from domestic supplies.
    • EVs are fast improving the balance of payments for China, India and other oil importers.
    • Emissions reduction to improve general health and reduce healthcare costs.
    • In India, Indonesia and other developing markets electric three-wheeler rickshaws and mopeds are going to make a big difference improving margins for their owners.
    • Li-ion battery innovation and cost reduction will enable bikes and trikes to go faster and further with much faster charging and longer battery lifespan.
  • Renewable energy:
    • Huge investment creating lower cost energy for industry and for householders
    • Hydropower – new capacity to rise 17% or 230GW from 2021-2030 (IEA)
    • Solar – 447GW (+87% yoy) of new capacity was installed in 2023 to make 1.6TW of capacity with >2TW by end of 2024. (SolarPowerEurope.org)
    • Wind – 117GW of new capacity was installed in 2023 with a further 1,210GW expected from 2024-2030
  • Batteries:
    • Grid scale – We estimate a total of 8,100-10,800GW of storage capacity will be required to mee the Paris Agreement in 2030
    • Domestic battery instillations – will take off to match household solar instillations
  • AI & data:
    • AI appears to be generating more of an impact than assumed by many.
    • More new datacentres for AI will require more power and more copper for their cabling

Conclusion: We are looking for a form of peace dividend to come from an end to the Russia / Ukraine conflict.

We are also looking for a second peace dividend from the eradication of major terrorist groups in the Middle East.

We hope the US and China will find a way to reduce tariffs on both sides to enable better trade.

In the great game of economic and political and economic Mahjong we wonder who will gain the upper hand?

Currencies

US$1.1070/eur vs 1.1123/eur previous. Yen 144.11/$ vs 143.99/$. SAr 17.354/$ vs 17.308/$. $1.329/gbp vs $1.335/gbp. 0.690/aud vs 0.691/aud. CNY 7.019/$ vs 7.019/$.

Dollar Index 101.26 vs 100.92 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,655/oz vs US$2,643/oz previous

Gold ETFs 83.2moz vs 83.3moz previous

Platinum US$999/oz vs US$983/oz previous

Palladium US$1,014/oz vs US$996/oz previous

Silver US$31.5/oz vs US$31.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,725/oz vs US$4,750/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,018/t vs US$9,877/t previous

Aluminium US$2,658/t vs US$2,621/t previous

Nickel US$17,940/t vs US$17,675/t previous

Zinc US$3,163/t vs US$3,116/t previous

Lead US$2,125/t vs US$2,116/t previous

Tin US$33,800/t vs US$33,420/t previous         

Energy:           

Oil US$75.2/bbl vs US$71.1/bbl previous

Natural Gas €39.4/MWh vs €38.2/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $82.0/lb v $81.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$108.5/t vs US$108.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$494.9/t vs US$494.9/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$124.8/t vs US$124.8/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$142.8/t vs US$148.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$24,300/t vs US$24,300/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$60,980/t vsUS$60,980/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,330/t vs US$10,330/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$740/t vs US$740/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$335/mtu vs US$335/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$445/t vs US$445/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 4.6/lb vs US$4.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 24.55/kg vs US$24.55/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$321/t vs US$321/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,346/t vs US$1,346/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$62.9/t vs US$62.9/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$282.5/t vs US$282.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,775.0/kg vs US$2,775.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$455.0/kg vs US$455.0/kg

Battery News

BYD records another month of record sales with strong hybrid growth

• BYD sold a record 419,426 NEVs in September, its fourth consecutive month of record highs, according to company figures.
• Those sales are up 45.9% yoy and up 12.4% from August.
• Passenger BEV sales were up 11.1% from August, to 164,956 units.
• PHEV sales saw a seventh consecutive month of record sales, with 252,647 units sold – up 86.2% yoy and 13.61% from August.
• BYD also sold 33,012 vehicles in overseas markets in September.
• BYD has sold 2.75m vehicles in the January to September period, up 32.1% yoy.
• BYD’s installed capacity of power and energy storage batteries amounted to about 127.7GWh in January-September, up 26.5% yoy.

Europe sees sales of Chinese EVs drop sharply amid tariff uncertainty

• According to Bloomberg, registrations of Chinese electric cars fell by 48% compared to the same period last year, leading to a two-month consecutive drop in market share for Chinese brands.
• MG, now owned by SAIC Motor Group, saw sales down 65% in August, and was overtaken by BYD as the top Chinese brand in Europe.
• SAIC has been hit with the highest rates for the new tariffs, 38%.
• The final decision on the additional duties is expected by November 2024, following a vote by EU member states, with negotiations between Brussels and Beijing ongoing.

Volvo among 50 companies urging Europe to stay strong on combustion engine ban

• Volvo and around 50 other companies, including Rivian and Uber have urged the EU to stick to its plan to halt sales of new combustion-engine cars in 2035.
• According to a declaration shared with Bloomberg, the companies argue that the sector needs certainty in order to invest confidently to meet EU goals.
• IKEA and energy company Iberdrola are also among the companies pressing the EU to stay its course.
• Proponents of the ban on combustion engines say the EU is behind China in producing EVs and must catch up.
• Legacy automakers, VW, BMW and Stellantis did not sign the declaration to the EU.
• All have seen sales in recent months struggle, particularly those of electric models.

Vauxhall begins trials for hydrogen fleets in UK

• Vauxhall have begun trials of its Vivaro Hydrogen van, the first commercially available production hydrogen van.
• A range of companies, including some of the UK’s largest fleets, will take part in the trial over the coming months.
• The Vivaro Hydrogen features a 45kW fuel cell and 10.5kWh lithium-ion battery located under the front seats, delivering a WLTP driving range of 249mi.
• The 5kg hydrogen fuel tanks can be refilled in just five minutes – about the same time needed to fill up a conventional diesel or petrol vehicle.
• The lithium-ion battery provides dynamic peak power when required, such as at start-up and under acceleration, while also helping the fuel cell run at optimum operating conditions and allows for regenerative braking.
• The battery can be recharged externally to provide 31mi of battery range.

UK’s largest bus operator adds 715 new EVs to its fleet

• Bus operator, Stagecoach, will add 715 new EVs to its fleet and make significant infrastructure upgrades across the UK.
• With these new additions, 15% of Stagecoach’s total fleet will be EV and will see rapid charging infrastructure installed at a further 22 depots across the country.
• In the announcement, the company did not disclose the supplier of the new EVs.

Company News

Capstone Copper (CS CN) C$10.8, Mkt Cap C$8.2bn – Mantoverde commercial production declared with MV-O FS released

• Mantoverde Development Project (MVDP, 70% Capstone / 30% Mitsubishi) located in the Atacama region of Chile reached commercial production status.
• The plant run at 30 consecutive days at an average of 75% nameplate throughput of 32ktpd (~12mtpa).
• The feed grade reconciled with the mine plan model while concentrate grade and recoveries were at or above targeted levels.
• MVDP adds flotation circuit to process sulphides yielding extra ~80ktpa copper on top of existing SX-EW operations treating oxide mineralisation and producing 35-40ktpa.
• Project was completed under the EP contract with Ausenco and cost an estimated US$870m.
• Mantoverde Optimised (MV-O) brownfield expansion project FS was also released this morning.
• MV-O is considering expanding flotation circuit capacity to 45ktpd adding ~20ktpa in incremental copper production.
• MV-O capex is estimated at $146m translating into a low capital intensity of ~$7,500/t for extra copper production.
• Once completed, annual production at Mantoverde is expected at 135ktpa Cu and 37koz Au at C1 cash cost of $1.81/lb.
• Mantoverde post tax NPV8% (100%) is estimated at $2.9bn using $4.1/lb copper price.
• MV-O constriction is expected to start on securing environmental DIA permit and Board approval with application submitted in 1H24 and approval expected 1H25.
• Mantoverde mineral reserves and resources (100% basis, Resources inclusive of Reserves) are estimated at:
  • Reserves 634mt at 0.41% Cu and 0.14g/t Au including 398mt at 0.49% (sulphide);
  • Mineral Resources 1,709mt at 0.37% Cu and 0.13g/t Au including 1,165mt at 0.42% (sulphide).
• FY24 production is expected to come in at the low end of the guidance (190-220kt) with C1 cash costs slightly above targeted range of $2.30-2.50/lb due to a delay in ramp ups at Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos.
• Cashel Meagher, current President and COO, will replace John Mackenzie as CEO.
• Mackenzie will be nominated to the role of Non Executive Chairman while Darren Pylot, founder of Capstone and current Chair, will his term after over 20 years as a founder, CEO and Chair of the Company.

EQ Resources (EQR AU) A$0.053/s, Mkt cap A$112m – September hits production record

• EQ Resources reports that its tungsten operations at Mt Carbine in Queensland and Barruecopardo in Spain, which was acquired in January, have both achieved monthly production records during September.
• The company reports that the operations produced 20,721mtu (metric tonne units; equivalent to 10kg) of tungsten trioxide in concentrate during September, approximately 15% higher than the 18,058mtu in August and 37% above July’s 15,097mtu
• Although the output is not detailed by operation, the company says that improvements at Mt Carbine reflect “improving ore grade” while those at Barruecopardo are the result of “the successful implementation of recovery-enhancing upgrades”.
• EQ Resources says that the “September monthly production record reflects a 51% increase in tungsten output at the EQR Group level, compared to the average monthly output recorded in Q4FY2024 … [and that both] … operations saw daily production records improving to 641 mtu at Mt Carbine (previously 571 mtu) and 518 mtu at Barruecopardo (previously 497 mtu)”.
• Today’s announcement also highlights the world’s dominant tungsten producer, China’s, increasing control over tungsten exports and the United States’ “additional tariff of 25% on Chinese tungsten products coming into the US, effective 27 September 2024” and American controls on the US Department of Defence “from acquiring tungsten from China and Russia”.
• The company says that “There is no doubt that end users in Europe and North America are nervous about supply disruption out of China following the recent announcement that China is further tightening export controls for several critical metals, especially those used in defense and semiconductor applications. China controls more than 80% of global tungsten output, and in the past 15 years, the Western world had only brought four tungsten mines into operation – two of them are operated by EQ Resources”.
• The current price of the benchmark ammonium paratungstate (APT) product currently stands at around US$335/mtu compared to ~US$300/mtu at the beginning of 2024.

Conclusion: Improving tungsten production from EQ Resources will add welcome additional western world output of a strategic mineral commodity in a market dominated by China and Russia.

Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN AU) A$12, Mkt cap A$3.5 – Update on Fission uranium transaction

• Paladin provides an update on their acquisition of Fission Uranium.
• The Company notes that completion is subject to a final order from the Supreme Court of British Columbia and Investment Canada Act clearance.
• 11% shareholder China General Nuclear Power in Fission has opposed the approval of the Arrangement at the final hearing last week.
• The Canadian Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry has ordered a review on national security grounds.
• Paladin notes ‘there can be no certainty that the Court will grant the Final Order, or that ICA clearance will be forthcoming, or that the Arrangement will be successfully completed.’

Thor Explorations* (THX LN) 15.7p, Mkt cap £108m – Response to Press Speculation over unpaid taxes

• Thor issued a response to press speculation yesterday.
• The Company noted that representatives from Osun State served their mining subsidiary, Segilola Resources Operating Limited with a notice to seal the mine site.
• The notice was from the state magistrates court and regarded unpaid taxes of $61.9k.
• The subsidiary has now paid the full outstanding amount, with the Company noting they were not given the stipulated 30 days to review.
• Thor notes no disruption to operations and management states they are ‘in dialogue with the Federal Ministry of Mines to prevent any such action from occurring again.’

*A member of the SP Angel research team holds shares in Thor Explorations

Tribe Technology (TRYB LN) 3.6p, Mkt cap £9.1m – Test results of reverse-circulation sampling technology show improved sample quality

• Tribe Tech reports that tests of its sampling technology by Master Drilling Group and a major mining company has “shown a remarkable improvement in geological sample quality as measured by sample mass distribution across the A, B & C samples taken for each sample interval”.
• The company explains that preliminary results from the testing has “shown a remarkable improvement in geological sample quality as measured by sample mass distribution across the A, B & C samples taken for each sample interval … [and that] … More consistent sample masses at the drill rig are anticipated to lead to more comparable and consistent assay results, assisting the miners to make more accurate data-based mine planning decisions”.
• The sampling technology is “capable of being retrofitted to other drill rigs”  and Tribe Tech says that the technology enabled 94% of the samples recovered to fall within 10% of the average sample mass.
• As the purpose of many drilling projects is to gather consistent data for decision making, including in reserve/resource estimation and for grade control purposes, improved sample quality should deliver higher quality data to informs these decisions.

Conclusion: Tribe Tech’s automated sampling appears capable of generating better sample quality and more consistent samples than conventional methods which may ultimately assist in improved resource and reserve estimates and more rigorous grade control data benefitting decision making in the mining industry.

No.1 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q1 2024

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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